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6 types of arbitrage on Polymarket
Prediction markets are full of inefficiencies.
If you know simple math from primary school, you can print thousands $ on it with low-risk.
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> 3-way market arbitrage
Only used in 3-ways markets like sports.
YES (T1) + NO (T2) < DRAW
Sum of YES shares (team 1) and No shares (team2) < Draw
• Example:
if Draw = 0.24 and Chelsea win = 0.19, the fair price for “Arsenal NO” ≈ 0.43
if “Arsenal NO” is trading at 0.35, it buys because it is “cheap” versus the combined outcomes.
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> cross-platform arbitrage
Same event, different odds = free money.
YES (PM1) + NO (PM2) <1$
• Example:
Platform 1: YES = 0.68$, Platform 2: NO = 0.28$
Buy YES on Platform 1 and NO on Platform 2 for $0.96 total → guaranteed 1$ payout
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> pre-market arbitrage
Used when a prediction market exists alongside a pre‑market token ( Hyperliquid / Binance / Bybit )
PM YES(>5$) + HL SHORT AT 4.8$
• Example:
Polymarket: “Will $LIT open above >4B FDV?” YES = 0.1
Pre‑market: $LIT trading at $3.8
If opening above $4 is priced too cheap relative to pre‑market, buy YES and short the token
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• Single-market arbitrage
In any market where outcomes are mutually exclusive and exhaustive. Possible to buy with limit orders only.
YES(o1) + NO(o2) < 1.00
• Example:
BTC trading above 87961$ on 15 min. market
UP (0.51$) + DOWN (0.46$) = 0.97$ → guaranteed 1$ payout
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> Multi‑outcome arbitrage
Used in multi‑outcome markets (e.g., “Who wins the election?” with 3+ candidates)
YES (o1) + YES (o2) + YES (o3) < 1$
• Example:
“Who wins the 2024 US election?” with 3 outcomes.
Trump: YES 0.4$ , Biden 0.35$, Kamala 0.2$
Sum = 0.40 + 0.35 + 0.20 = $0.95 → guaranteed 1$ payout
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• Cross-condutional arbitrage
Only used when two or more related markets exist on the same event (e.g., “Who wins?” and “Winning margin?”).
YES(M1) + NO(M2) < 1$
• Example:
“Will Trump win the Republican nomination?” = 0.70$
“Will Trump win the Election?” = 0.75$
Buy «NO» on general for 0.25$ and buy «YES» on nomination for 0.7$
Sum = 0,95$ → guaranteed 1$ payout
Nothing here is magic, just simple math and inefficiencies in prediction markets.
@Backpack TGE in January with 1 point = 1$?! 🎒
I'm not the biggest fan, but after 2 years of development, here's what's happening: based on @armaniferrante tweets and community confirmation, Season 4 is likely the final season before TGE - ending late January.
It makes sense. If they miss this window, we're all in the red. But if TGE drops January-February, we're actually not doing too bad.
The Math: Total ~411.4M points distributed across 4 seasons (100M/season + 10M bonus drop + 1.4M week-1 bonus).
At $1B FDV with 25% airdrop allocation = $0.608/point.
At $1.5B FDV with 30% = $1.094/point.
See charts for full breakdown across scenarios.
I'm holding 10K points. No multis, no sybil farming. Offset by promo drops and side-drops, ROI looks solid. If price hits $0.36+, we're good. But we're obviously hoping for $1+ like real idiots ^.^
But this is Backpack, so:
- They might silo rewards by tier (and we'll never know the formula)
- Mad Lads NFT holders probably get extra
- Badge rewards are coming
- Some points for wallet usage maybe
- Retroactive rewards for pre-Season 1 activity
- OR none of this matters because banned accounts torched millions of points and nobody knows the real number
Honestly? I'm tired of making predictions. Anyone can bullish or bearish this to death with selective data. You could believe me or think this is total BS. And honestly, reading this might be a waste of your time l
But it doesn't matter - this all calculates in seconds via AI now anyway. So we just sit here fantasizing about our airdrop numbers like degenerates. Classic.
The project has failed multiple times. But the founder is legitimately solid with serious experience, and they've always been community-first with "VCs get nothing" energy (though they did raise $37M, but that's separate from the airdrop allocation).
Quick note: $LIT (from @Lighter_xyz) trading promo runs through Jan 8 - you get points back with zero fees on $164M daily volume. Solid if you want to stack extra before deadline:.
That's it. Make your own call. My ref volume is literally $0. I barely shilled Backpack after the seasons dropped, so this isn't some desperate shill post. Hope you dig the analysis. If not, tell me why in the comments. GL HF.
Btw: https://t.co/bsI4FqR332
@phi_xyz The project is a scam and a cheap one — they don’t value the contributions of their users. I participated in the project three years ago and received nothing in return.