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Model Samples

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@PaulRoundy1 @ShiningScience less revenue for China tho.

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@amethystarlight @EliotJacobson While many apply frequentist statistics to ensembles as if it's a selection of random samples from a real population, it isn't.

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@amethystarlight @EliotJacobson if it's an ensemble spread it's not a margin of error or confidence. the spread says something about how the model works. it's not a statistical sample of a real population.

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@PaulRoundy1 @RodolfoVontobel @MattPolProf there are fewer wealthy people than not. so things ought to balance out.

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@PaulRoundy1 @colindpalmer I think it's reductionist science run amok. The actual determinants of human wellness are innumerable things. Human wellness = f(all the things). Climate fanatics are starting to believe human wellness = f(GMST).

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@PaulRoundy1 @CColose @mattsheehan92 less information steering can look like more information steering if you lose touch with what people actually think. a distorted baseline makes natural reality look like a hostile intervention.

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@PaulRoundy1 @ShiningScience climate is about temperature, and AC is about temperature, so somehow people are tangling it up in their minds, drawing a straight line. Objectively it's no different than any other energy usage and totally arbitrary to focus on.

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@WeiZhangAtmos @ryankatzrosene I suppose politically motivated assessment reports are useful in terms of identifying data gaps, and drives the scientific community to fill them. Pure science and academia is somewhat chaotic in terms of synthesizing actionable information.

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@ProfStrachan @PaulRoundy1 Scientists pushing back at media outlets using meaningless terms like climate chaos might win back some fans. Academics ought to abandon overtly contrived communication. Scientists and normies can bond over their mutual disdain for hype-filled and dramatic buzzwords.

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@PaulRoundy1 @ProfStrachan @climatemessages @ed_hawkins people have vivid imaginations of total continuous apocalypse. If you can't imagine it you might be a scientist.

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@CColose is that why the number one climate activist Bill McKibben loves China and Pakistan so much?

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@CColose @WeiZhangAtmos like a conspiracy?

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@PaulRoundy1 @Rainmaker1973 usually some signal

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@PaulRoundy1 @Rainmaker1973 great experimental opportunity. If fewer than 50 million perish this time we're doing something right.

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@ryankatzrosene what is the optimal level of forest burn

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@PaulRoundy1 @ryankatzrosene yes, people being alive comes with exposure to environmental hazards and health care costs. That seems to be the story.

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@PaulRoundy1 @exploreabitmore @mhdksafa @AgBioWorld yes, some people think the pie stays the same size and it's a zero sum game. doesn't work like that.

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@PaulRoundy1 @ryankatzrosene yes, the pertinent question for activists is what are the attributable fractions of health damages to nature, atmospheric pollution, and landscape management.