Wickdust

Making charts and trying to understand what’s going on.

[Wickdust @WickDust]

S&P 500... 65% 'Extended M' crash.

Across price to sales, price to book, and profit margins, today’s market is about 2x more expensive than the average of the 2008, 2000 and 1929 bubble peaks... but apparently this time is different.

$spx $spy $ndx $qqq #iran

[Wickdust @WickDust]

@Kalshi Old news…

[Justin Bennett @JustinBennettFX]

S&P 500 top?

This week will be pivotal.

No long explanation needed. 👇

[Finom Group @GroupFinom]

⚠️It will not likely end well when it ends

The most out of gear/bifurcated market in history. Individual stocks in $COMPQ are either hitting all-time lows or all-time highs daily. Very little in the middle to stabilize index.

Former danger zone looks comforting by comparison.

Nobody knows when it ends, but not mathematically or cap-weighted-ly possible to end well.

$NDX $QQQ $SPX $SPY $DIA $IWM $RSP $VIX

[Wickdust @WickDust]

Crude oil is breaking out above long descending resistance, after repeatedly rejecting at the trendline.

$wti $usoil $spx $ndx $spy $qqq #iran

[Wickdust @WickDust]

@181IMGI

[Wickdust @WickDust]

S&P 500 retraced back to the 0.786 fib level and puked through support.

$spx $spy $ndx $qqq

[Wickdust @WickDust]

Everyone says Japan’s yen intervention is already failing... could be. But USD/JPY also just had a massive, sudden dump and may simply be retracing toward key levels before the next leg lower.

$usdjpy #yen $spx $ndx $qqq $spy #japan

[Nick Gerli @nickgerli1]

U.S. Full-Time employment is shrinking.

Today's full-time worker count of 133.6M is only 1.4% above 2019 levels.

And down 2.3M from the January 2025 peak.

Meaning no meaningful growth in America's full-time workforce in nearly seven years.

That's becoming another headwind for housing.

A strong full-time job market supports household formation, mortgage qualification, and ultimately homebuyer demand.

And right now, that job growth is basically non-existent.

What's unusual is that previous periods of economic expansion in the U.S. came with significant growth in full-time jobs.

This one hasn't.

[Wickdust @WickDust]

Nasdaq... retraced back to the 0.886 fib level / has now broken down through 12-day old support.

$ndx $qqq $spx $spy #iran

[Wickdust @WickDust]

@MichaelPBento

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has formally appointed former longtime IRGC commander-in-chief Mohsen Rezaei as the head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council.

Rezaei, one of the most hardline figures in the IRGC, is actively preparing a military response to the U.S. Naval Blockade, and has described the Strait of Hormuz as a "more powerful deterrent for Iran than dozens of atomic bombs." He has also warned Iran will turn the Sea of Oman into a "graveyard" for US forces if the naval blockade is not lifted.

Rezaei has explicitly stated Iran will not tolerate any unauthorized second shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, adding "even if they bring a warship, we will strike that warship. If they bring military forces, we will strike them," with the IRGC actively preparing the necessary military measures.

[Wickdust @WickDust]

@HenrikZeberg Exactly. Interestingly, by the time the recession signal hit in 2001, the Nasdaq had already crashed roughly 50-55% from its peak... seems that markets can do a massive amount of damage before the recession signal becomes official.

[Wickdust @WickDust]

S&P 500... 3 potential paths / all leading to April 2025 tariff-crash lows.

$spx $ndx $spy $qqq

[Wickdust @WickDust]

@dodiciassei Yeah, I've also mapped a SPX to 8.0K-8.2K / NDX to 32-34K blow off top scenario.

[Wickdust @WickDust]

S&P 500... 12% drop scenario.

Pressing against the upper rail of a massive bearish rising wedge after repeatedly rejecting from this same resistance line, with the structure tightening into the apex.

$spx $spy $ndx $qqq

[Wickdust @WickDust]

@Q1QE42jYyc68168 yes, I've also mapped out that scenario.

[Wickdust @WickDust]

Nasdaq 3-month chart.
Slamming into long-term resistance.
Dragonfly doji / hanging-man warning.
Lower-high on-balance volume rolling over from an extreme... could get ugly.

$ndx $qqq $zpx $spy

[The Hormuz Report @HormuzReport]

BREAKING: Just days after Saudi Arabia signed a new defense pact with Pakistan and Turkey, two major Saudi Aramco energy sites have been reportedly hit — a fire at the Berri Gas Plant near Jubail on the Gulf coast and a separate blaze at an Aramco facility at the Jazan refinery on the Red Sea coast, per satellite data and Saudi officials.

NASA FIRMS detected an estimated 125 MW fire radiative power at Berri, while Saudi authorities said Aramco crews extinguished the Jazan fire with no injuries reported. The cause and extent of damage remain unclear, with no confirmed attribution for either incident.

The stakes are enormous. Jubail supplies approximately 8% of global petrochemical production and contributes more than 7% of Saudi Arabia's GDP, hosting major operations involving Saudi Aramco, SABIC, ExxonMobil, Dow Chemical, and Chevron Phillips.

The timing is critical. The attacks come just days after Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey signed a NATO-style defense pact in Jeddah. The agreement, which features a collective defense clause, was dismissed by Iran as a "paper agreement" that would not bring security to Riyadh. The strikes may be a test of that new alliance — and a warning from Tehran that no paper pact will protect Saudi energy infrastructure. Saudi authorities have not confirmed the cause of either fire. The region remains on high alert.