Will

Enjoyer of numbers

[Will @will_j_5]

I figured out how ESPN calculates fantasy football win percentage, it’s bad!

ESPN made a stats 101 error when calculating their win percentage which leads to horribly miscalibrated numbers. (🧵 thread)

[Brad Shapiro @btshapir]

Attn @MikeClayNFL @field

[Will @will_j_5]

@bmacGTPM Not that I could find. I had to pull their code from their website with inspect element to find their formula.

[Will @will_j_5]

I figured out how ESPN calculates fantasy football win percentage, it’s bad!

ESPN made a stats 101 error when calculating their win percentage which leads to horribly miscalibrated numbers. (🧵 thread)

[Will @will_j_5]

@frankly_Buffalo I think you’re right lol

[Will @will_j_5]

@aroundtherock Haven’t looked at Yahoo, so not sure. But good question!

[Will @will_j_5]

TL;DR - ESPN’s fantasy win percentage is bad due to an elementary math error (using “standard deviation” and “variance” interchangeably). They overestimate the underdog before games start, then close to the end of matchups underestimate the underdog.

[Will @will_j_5]

That’s why ESPN overestimates the favorite late - it thinks there is less uncertainty left in the final game(s) than there is.

[Will @will_j_5]

“You Can See Everything” has an IMDB rating of 9.3 right now, beating The Godfather and The Dark Knight…

[Will @will_j_5]

@bqxgqz No, he said the same thing 12 months before that. You don’t get to be right if you say the same thing over and over again, even if it eventually happens.

[Vessel Of Spirit @VesselOfSpirit]

many arguments for 9 being prime:
isn't even
9/2=4.5, not a whole number
odd number
not a multiple of two
pairing 9 socks leaves 1
9=2*N has no solution in the integers
last digit not 0, 2, 4, 6, or 8
9 mod 2 != 0

only a single argument against:
9=3*3

on balance, clearly prime