Jonquil Capital

You think your’e buying your ‘GEICO’ but it’s probably Dexter Shoe.

[Jonquil Capital @william_zing]

@bobspaysubstack It’s priced for oblivion, so I’m taking this okayish print as a nice outcome.

[Jonquil Capital @william_zing]

Quarterly whiplash on $IDT is always a little bit surprising. I thought the overall results were pretty solid. Beat and raise, so naturally down 7%. Now a 6x EBITDA for a pretty good business.

[Jonquil Capital @william_zing]

I’ve cut my valuation of NRS in half which more less matches the drop in market cap we’ve seen. If terminal growth picks back up even modestly… the stock is pretty undervalued.

Estimate ~1.5B equity value today conservatively with upside to 1.7 to 1.8 if NRS can get right.

[Jonquil Capital @william_zing]

A lot to digest on the most recent $idt Q, it was bound to be bad with the most recent monthly report showing no growth in NRS terminals.

[Jonquil Capital @william_zing]

Looks like a strong Q at $CZBS.

Solid growth in deposits from Q3 and AOCI up 5m which maybe in part is a reversal of the Q3 reserve taken.

[Jonquil Capital @william_zing]

+5.75% in q4
+26.37% ytd

Just happy to keep up with SP500 with a small / mid cap portfolio.

[Jonquil Capital @william_zing]

@InvestRoiss @JonChoivo @MikeFritzell I think that makes sense, hard to untangle it. Loans from Kaspi and Halyk increased about 1.6T KZT YoY which is a little under 2% of GDP, so maybe that played a factor but headwinds from O&G prices would mute a lot of the expansion of credit imo

[Jonquil Capital @william_zing]

@MikeFritzell It’s about 2% of GDP, which is similar to a Walmart or Amazon. Same for Halyk Bank which is about 2% of GDP as well. I think skepticism is warranted in the geo, but I don’t think size alone is a concern for the business.

[Jonquil Capital @william_zing]

@JonChoivo @MikeFritzell At least on the payments business, it’s a transition from cash to cashlesss payment methods not a growth of the overall market. E-commerce maybe there’s a point but it’s the same thing where e-commerce is taking share from physical retail

[Jonquil Capital @william_zing]

@docnovak @100xCompounding https://t.co/pgBYmhG8Fc

[Jonquil Capital @william_zing]

@archiecoder I love to see it - the market is a capricious beast lol

[Jonquil Capital @william_zing]

$IDT should be up 50%+ on this news imo

[Jonquil Capital @william_zing]

@archiecoder NRS ad revenues came in down like 40% YoY but that should have been expected imo. Other than that everything looks fine. Surprised a bit at the market reaction, but it will be interesting to hear management's commentary about the Q

[Jonquil Capital @william_zing]

@wile_zzz I wrote a bit more about it here: https://t.co/nAjMzycCYS

[Jonquil Capital @william_zing]

+6.9% in Q3, +19.5% ytd
All of gain in Q3 was from a super fortunate trade on SIMO, I'm just going to keep waiting for the market to agree with me pretty much everywhere else.
Added to $IDT and $ILLM.TO, and sold Meta. No other changes.

[Jonquil Capital @william_zing]

@wile_zzz High chance that the position is way too large, but it seems like the market is too focused on the headline liability numbers and not the weighted average outcome. If they lose the suit, I think it's $5-$15 per share in losses, but I think the stock is worth ~$48 ex-the lawsuit.

[Jonquil Capital @william_zing]

@AUAnalyst More risk to it, but I think these guys are not going to buy the new planes unless they think they can get really strong economics on them.

[Jonquil Capital @william_zing]

Some notes on the $HRBR 10q

United arbitration decision expected in Q4 with ~7m in legal expenses this quarter. Given the relatively high legal expenses, I don't think they would have pursued this unless they felt confident in the outcome.

[Jonquil Capital @william_zing]

@babykswanson @FoxLakeCapital @DeepSailCapital @AmzDot @FriendlyCapMgmt Not a lawyer, but 600m in headline liability from the FCC fines on straightpath seem out of whack. Straightpath was majority owned by the plaintiffs so minority shareholders could have realistic damages of ~300m and IDT has some coverage from liability insurance,no idea how much.

[Jonquil Capital @william_zing]

All in all, probably still waiting until arbitration settlement before anything exciting happens with the stock. Longer term, I think the cash position will slowly be used to add CRJ-700s and hopefully continue getting whatever value they can out of the CRJ-200s in the meantime.

[Jonquil Capital @william_zing]

Notice of default on the aircraft credit agreement seems really strange. It's nice to have 48m in debt at 4%, but the cash & equivalents are not earning much more than that so not the end of the world to pay this if it comes to it.