Will

Occasional investing thoughts. Often wrong. Not advice.

[Will @willwister]

Markets falling b/c #covid19 response is behind the curve & will lead to quarantined cities, supply chain disruptions, and scared consumers who cut back on travel & reduce time in public places. Decline to continue until global health system no longer behind curve.

[Will @willwister]

@KNLCBD Exercisable 30 days after biz combination, closed July 6th. People are betting LZM price declines in 30 days. LZM may not be shortable, 300% rate, I believe.

[Will @willwister]

@TheCoalTrader Awesome! How long have you backtested this system for? Good results over time? What if you backtested just for ETF/stock prices without using options? What do you think is the best way to measure propensity for mean reversion? Thx!

[Will @willwister]

@feynzz I would be interested as well — and may be interested in some of the other groups, as I was not aware of them.

[Will @willwister]

@wabuffo @Johncomiskey77 You and I agree we are just using different words to describe it. If demand to BUY debt is high, interest rates decline.

[Will @willwister]

@wabuffo @Johncomiskey77 In 2021, the Fed bought treasuries while the tsy dpt stopped issuing debt. So in terms of supply and demand, the demand for debt exceeded supply. Talking about the net amount of debt.

[Will @willwister]

@wabuffo @Johncomiskey77 But on the other hand you could argue that debt is still getting sold to the public on a regular basis, and the public's ongoing desire to buy treasuries decreases as short term interest rates increase, excess savings decline, & their ongoing living costs increase.

[Will @willwister]

@wabuffo @Johncomiskey77 Last debt ceiling no debt was sold to public; also QE ongoing. This time b/c of QT, debt is still being sold. On the one hand you could argue that the ongoing sales to the public have been reduced vs. a month ago, so the S/D curve for interest rates should change.

[Will @willwister]

@TrungTPhan How much did Bill Gates give away to charity in that time frame? If he hadn't given that away, how much would he be worth?

[Will @willwister]

@TwitterWrite notes should have an "expand" option so you can read the full note without opening a new page.

[Will @willwister]

@Vegagerdin Is the water going down at all? I think June 8th it was 125 cm or so, based on a video I saw, but it seems like it's been 50 cm for the last 3-4 days. Do you think it'll be 30cm in a week or so?

[Will @willwister]

@featherytravels @stepman That puddle has been there for a while. I saw a video from June 8 and it looked worse. Any guesses on when a normal 4*4 might be able to pass it? About a week or about a month?

[Will @willwister]

@Stanley223 Congrats!!! Made me smile :) Happy for you!

[Will @willwister]

@rtnarch Favorite country or area?

[Will @willwister]

@HighBorrowCost @MadThunderdome Are you worried at all about water availability for South American brine?

[Will @willwister]

@INArteCarloDoss DM please :)

[Will @willwister]

@hungry_cap The BOJ is telling you that they are grudgingly OK with a weaker yen & will pursue policies that lead to that outcome. So I'm short yen futures. Options are another way to do it. I have no position in JGBs because I don't think the BOJ breaks on that yet. That will come later.

[Will @willwister]

@TheCoalTrader You've done an outstanding job.

What was the key signal that let you know to increase the puts/inverse ETFs? HYG technicals? Other technicals?

Would be cool if your software showed what was driving performance each day.

[Will @willwister]

@irbezek I don't think those have transcripts. I love youtube because of the auto transcripts. I would click every podcast link you posted if it linked to youtube or a transcript.

[Will @willwister]

@Zootsuit14 @Pete__Panda IIRC they expected to use 20,000 mwh of power annually, so the power cost bump is ~3.5M/year or so. On diesel, usage I think 1.9L so roughly 2m/year in cost bump.