UPDATE : Market went back online and has been resolved to YES after a "clarification".
Very bad precedent in my opinion, precisely because it goes against precedent.
As a reminder, the same market was *clarified* to NO for the Easter 2025 ceasefire, after odds ran up to +90%.
This is why odds were stayed so low on this market even after the announcement.
Long time traders that knew of the previous instance assumed it would resolve consistently with precedent, but instead it was *clarified* again but in the other direction.
@polymarket has had controversial resolutions before, but they always followed precedent if there was one. Now you can't count on that either.
This was a very bad decision that could have been avoided by writing better rules, especially after the Easter 2025 controversy.
I woke up to see Russia x Ukraine ceasefire markets resolved to Yes. Something I didn't really expect, even though I held a small amount of Yes shares I bought weeks ago for an entirely different reason.
Precedents, spirit of the market, and the rules themselves were clear that short-term truces / humanitarian pauses wouldn't count. The market was specifically created to forecast a ceasefire related to a negotiated end of the war.
It could have been a 30 day ceasefire, during which negotiations for peace are taking place. It could have been an indefinite ceasefire, aka a peace deal. The key here is the intent to end the war.
The 3 day ceasefire announced hours ago didn't meet any of the criteria for a Yes resolution. There is no intent to end the war during the ceasefire time. There are no final negotiations taking place. In fact, as far as we know, there is no meeting taking place between Ukraine / US and Russia.
Additionally, for reasons that for now are beyond me, the markets were effectively halted with no prior information, before a clarification had been issued. Many traders and market makers were trapped holding shares they didn't intend to hold until the resolution.
Too much has happened now to find a perfect solution. But at the very least, we need a serious explanation from the Polymarket team. This is the first time the market has been resolved against precedent, making trading on the platform suddenly exponentially more risky. Refunds for No holders are also entirely justified.
And ultimately, after years of complaints, it's time to fix the rules and resolutions system. We've lived through many absurd decisions and resolutions, but one thing was always certain - the markets cannot resolve against precedent.
Now, with this axiom no longer holding, there is really no way to understand how the market will resolve going forward.
This was one of the biggest markets on the platform, and the most consequential one. It was the basis for all other ceasefire markets. It was a forecast on the arguably the most important global event currently unfolding. If not properly addressed, the consequences for Polymarket and the wider prediction markets community and industry could be tragic.
Yesterday I took my biggest loss on Polymarket,around $30k. What hurts most isn’t the money, but that the majority of it was caused by Polymarket.The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market got disputed over the humanitarian pause rule. The Easter truce went No (as expected), so this one should have too. They later clarified Yes, which I could live with...but then suddenly pulled the entire market while people were still actively trading, literally seconds after my order filled.That decision alone turned a $5-10k loss into $30k. After this, I’m seriously questioning whether Polymarket is still safe to trade on.
@shayne_coplan@williamlegate@mustafap0ly@0xdanzu
How the Conflict in Ukraine Led to the Conflict in Polymarket - operation "Zelensky's Suit 2.0"
A bit of background: one of the most popular markets on Polymarket is the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. This market is also controversial, as several ceasefires announced in recent years (during which the price of the “YES” reached 90%) were not counted as “Yes” by the Polymarket team, which issued additional clarifications stating that only a ceasefire leading to a complete end to the conflict would be sufficient.
On May 9, 2026: Russia, Ukraine and Trump announced a three-day temporary ceasefire and permission to hold a military parade on Red Square as well as a prisoner exchange. This ceasefire was expected (Russia and Ukraine consistently agree to ceasefires on dates such as May 9, Easter and other important dates for these countries). However according to Polymarket the probability of a ceasefire in May was only 5% - everyone on Polymarket knows that all previous markets were settled as “NO” because temporary ceasefires are not taken into account for the “Russia-Ukraine ceasefire” market on Polymarket. Even after the ceasefire was declared by all three parties the price of YES shares was only 3.4%.
Suddenly, Polymarket issued a clarification for the market that was the exact opposite, stating:
"Additional context: Updated May 9. A mutual agreement to halt military engagement between Russia and Ukraine has been publicly announced and confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting."
The price of "YES" as a result of explanations from the Polymarket skyrockets to 100% and all markets associated with the ceasefire are resolved as "YES".
Why is this decision so strange? Because Russia and Ukraine have already concluded temporary ceasefires, and each time Polymarket pointed out that it was insufficient. Here are some historical examples.
"2026 Russo-Ukrainian truce was a brief truce between Russia and Ukraine, during their ongoing war. On 11 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC a 32-hour truce began for Orthodox Easter between the Russian Federation and Ukraine. The truce had been proposed by President Zelenskyy of Ukraine nearly a week before, and President Putin of Russia had set its period"
CNN 2025 May 7 "Putin’s 3-day ceasefire comes into effect"
NPR: Putin had declared a unilateral 72-hour ceasefire starting May 7, 2025
Ukraine and Russia have confirmed their commitment to a “ceasefire” from May 9 to May 11, 2025.
Here is the statement released by the Polymarket team in May 2025 which dashed any hopes “YES” holders had last year: "Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify."
and
"On April 19, Vladimir Putin announced that “guided by humanitarian considerations, today from 18:00 to 00:00 from Sunday to Monday, the Russian side declares an Easter truce”. Per the rules, "humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market". Thus, an 'Easter truce’, as it has been widely reported, will not qualify, even if reciprocated by Ukraine."
May 2026 - TASS: "The ceasefire is a truly unprecedented humanitarian step."
Polymarket issued two opposing clarifications for the same market responding to the same event related to that market - a three-day truce in the celebration of Victory Day.
The logic of the "No" holders was simple: Polymarket doesn't account for humanitarian pauses (in the form of holiday truces) for the purposes of this market so the holiday truce will not be counted as in all previous years.
Will all "Yes" holders be compensated in 2025 or all "No" holders in 2026? Polymarket effectively interpreted the same event twice in a way that went against the majority opinion. In 2025, they took money from those who had bet on “YES,” and in 2026, from those who had bet on “NO,” relying on a precedent set by the platform itself.
🚨 And once again, another scam resolution on Polymarket 🤡📉
Market: “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?” 🇷🇺🇺🇦
https://t.co/tSL0Q74ytg
So what do we actually have? 👇
❌ No official documents signed
⏸️ Both sides only announced a temporary ceasefire from May 8–11 for humanitarian reasons, while multiple violations were reported
🐣 Similar 2-day Easter truce already happened before
⚔️ Most likely the war resumes again after May 11
Meanwhile the market rules clearly state 📜:
“Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.”
And what did Polymarket decide? 🤔
💀 Absolute scam resolution.
CT keeps getting farmed again and again 🤷♂️
$POLY #Polymarket #Crypto #PredictionMarkets #Ukraine #Russia #Scam #Web3
So the $OPM token was released at 7:18 AM on 7/24/24 by a deployer who has no subsequent activity, ever. 👀
7:18 is an Angel Number representing abundance, prosperity, and divine magic
The date itself 724 - reassurance from spiritual realm
Universal year 2024 = 2 + 0 + 2 + 4 = 8 = angel number, financial power
Day 7/24 - energy of responsibility and nurturing
Interestingly, UFO files were released on 5/7/2026
Again, 8 being abundance/karma/financial opportunity, 5 which is freedom, and 2026 = 2 + 0 + 2 + 6 = 10 which reduces to 1 - soul reset
Ophanim - (Hebrew for "wheels") are a class of celestial beings in Jewish tradition, specifically associated with Ezekiel’s vision of the divine chariot (Merkabah) in Ezekiel 1:15–21.