W vs. The Market

Data analytics 9–5. Investor 24/7.
Long-term investing & short-term trades.
Econ BA | Master’s in Data Analytics

[W vs. The Market @wwbuysstocks]

Coffee break before the close ☕

[W vs. The Market @wwbuysstocks]

@AdrianCInvests nvda

[W vs. The Market @wwbuysstocks]

@TangoTurtleA Thanks, you too!

[W vs. The Market @wwbuysstocks]

Vietnamese food for lunch. Hope everyone’s enjoying the green today!

[W vs. The Market @wwbuysstocks]

@lunarisvei The key thing to watch over the next few quarters.

[W vs. The Market @wwbuysstocks]

Went through $CRWV’s earnings.

Revenue beat, guidance was raised, and backlog reached $132.5B. Pretty impressive.

But the balance sheet is still a concern.

Net interest expense was $846M in Q3, with another $1.05–1.15B expected in Q4. They’re also planning $37–39B in capex this year.

The demand is clearly there. The question is how quickly they can build out the capacity and turn those orders into actual cash flow.

They need to keep borrowing to fund that growth, and the longer it takes to deliver, the more expensive it gets.

I’m not saying $CRWV can’t pull it off. But having a huge backlog and being able to fund it are two different things.

For anyone investing in AI data center stocks like $NBIS and $IREN, I’d keep tracking their debt, financing costs, and cash flow. These numbers can change quickly, and they’re just as important as revenue growth.

[W vs. The Market @wwbuysstocks]

@Unc_GPT Can’t go wrong taking 100% profit.

[W vs. The Market @wwbuysstocks]

Anthropic’s new office tools put some pressure on $MSFT but I think the market might be overreacting a bit.

Claude Sheets is still pretty basic for now and even Anthropic points users to Excel for more advanced work.

And let’s not forget, Microsoft committed up to $5B to Anthropic, while Anthropic committed $30B to Azure compute. Claude is also part of Microsoft’s Copilot ecosystem.

They’re competing, but also doing plenty of business together.

AI is putting pressure on software companies, but it’s also giving them opportunities to make their own products better.

I don’t see this launch having much impact on Microsoft’s business in the near term.

[W vs. The Market @wwbuysstocks]

@lunarisvei Yeah, the growth looks great. Just wanna see cash flow catch up.

[W vs. The Market @wwbuysstocks]

@LoomFinance Exactly. Demand is clearly there, but funding is the tricky part.

[W vs. The Market @wwbuysstocks]

💯

[Peter Beck @Peter_J_Beck]

Initially the team thought I was not being serious…..
But, it just had to be a gold.

[W vs. The Market @wwbuysstocks]

@buildwithpb 30？

[W vs. The Market @wwbuysstocks]

Are we buying $ANT ？

[W vs. The Market @wwbuysstocks]

@HighwaterCap Agreed. The demand is there but funding it is the real test.

[W vs. The Market @wwbuysstocks]

$CRWV reports earnings after the close today.

CDS is basically the cost of insuring against a company defaulting on its debt.

For comparison, companies like $MSFT and $GOOGL are below 100 bps. Above 200 generally signals higher credit risk.

$CRWV recently hit around 1,200 bps. That’s 6 times that level.

Options are pricing in roughly a 20% move after earnings.

With the stock already beaten down, I’m curious how the market reacts. Feels like a real test of confidence in the AI data center trade.

$NBIS $IREN

[W vs. The Market @wwbuysstocks]

@jionghuizhang yeah. The stock price is one thing, but that kind of credit risk is hard to ignore.

[W vs. The Market @wwbuysstocks]

$RKLB recovering nicely.

[W vs. The Market @wwbuysstocks]

Finally finished work and got a chance to go through $RKLB ’s Q3 earnings.

Pretty solid quarter overall.

Revenue up 73% to $268M, backlog up 52% to $3.57B, gross margins beat guidance, and operating cash flow turned positive for the quarter.

The biggest highlight for me is Neutron. Over $515M in new launch contracts, with several priced at $70M each, up from $55M. That’s 16 launches booked before the rocket has even flown. Pretty impressive.

EPS missed, partly due to a one-time debt-related charge and higher Neutron development costs. There’s still execution risk with Neutron, but the demand is hard to ignore.

$RKLB currently makes up 17% of my long-term portfolio. With the after-hours pullback, I’ll be adding more on Tuesday.

[W vs. The Market @wwbuysstocks]

$RKLB earnings after the bell today.

Up or down, I’m holding.

[W vs. The Market @wwbuysstocks]

Market’s green, $NVDA’s red. Thanks, Jensen? 😂