When are #Altcoins going to run?
We can't deny.
The markets are still terrible as we're still in the longest bear market in history for #Altcoins.
My #Altcoin portfolio is down more than 50%.
That's not great.
People lose faith.
What can we expect and when does it turn?
There are multiple sides to the story to discuss and the first one that I wanted to debunk is the entire 4-year cycle case.
I don't know why Web3 remains so attached to it, however, the 4-year cycle is gone.
It's not solely a Web3 game anymore, #Bitcoin became a mature asset and through the ETF we've seen that flows don't care about any 4-year cycle.
Additionally, if we look at the current case of the markets.
Bitcoin is at $120K while the rates are 4%+.
Bitcoin was at $65K in 2021 with rates at 0.5%.
Imagine where we're going to be at when Bitcoin is going to be running upwards massively with rates to drop from a cliff. The business cycle is still at its weakest (it's a miracle that it's not called a recession).
On the other hand, this cycle has proven to be completely different than previous cycles.
- A Bitcoin ATH prior to the halving.
- No #Altcoin run this deep in the cycle. Four years ago we've had a case that we've already had 99% of the returns in.
This tells me that all the 4-year ideas are thrown out of the window, something which I've been saying for a long time.
That's also why going to build a strategy based on time is going to result into a massive misjudgement by many.
I'd rather build a strategy based on price, indicators and risk rather than time.
Now, #Altcoins are about to start their bull cycle as most of them are on the edge of breaking out, while some have been breaking out.
The first strong sign of a breakout is given through $ETH breaking above its 20-EMA on the daily timeframe.
This was the first breakout since the entire #Altcoin bear market has started.
Where can we compare the move to? Yes, exactly, September '19.
We've just witnessed the biggest altcoin bear market in history, as the business cycle has been taking a long time to turn around and we're literally on edge.
The rate cuts are coming. The money printer will be turned on. It's time to inject a lot of money into crypto.
That's why I think that betting on the 4-year cycle to be done is a foolish idea to do.
This is the final easy cycle, but you need to keep your head up and be patient.
The next #Bitcoin top will be the top of everything and will kick off the biggest depression in history.
I'm staying entirely allocated into #Altcoins as most of those altcoins are going to be breaking through their 20-Day EMA indicating that we're in a bull cycle.
The last time this happened was in Q4 of 2024, one entire year ago.
During that period, $ETH didn't break through the 20-EMA, indicating how much of an upwards momentum we're likely going to see in the markets as there's more strength being build up.
My #Altcoin Portfolio
I'm going to stay fully allocated into my altcoins.
I've been able to actively trade the portfolio in a downwards trending market.
Despite the fact that most altcoins are down 80% since I've started the portfolio, my portfolio is down 50%.
That means, a great period is upon us.
I'm going to trade it actively, a lot.
Stay tuned, I'll make more updates on the portfolio in the coming weeks.
Probably the most horrifying chart out there.
$2bn liquidated
Nearly 1m traders liquidated
Alts at prices not seen in 3 years (or ever)
and $BTC sits in it's HTF range.