Tradenometry

Intersection of Finance, Math, Science, and Engineering｜ex-Microsoft Software Engineer｜Trading & Investing ❤️

[Tradenometry @xiangwei36]

$AMD is a 600 dollar stock! Few understand this!

[Tradenometry @xiangwei36]

$AMD is a 600 dollar stock! Few understand this!

[Tradenometry @xiangwei36]

When a trader becomes heavily biased, the truth disappears behind the narrative.
Michael Burry shorted $PLTR from last year. When the stock collapsed below 110, the profits were sitting there, ready to be taken. Now, with the shares back in the 170s, his short is underwater.
The same pattern played out with $NBIS. He could have covered when it dipped below 200. The rebound has left him underwater again.

A large following is both a blessing and a curse. When the call is right, the audience delivers validation. When the tape turns against the position, cutting the loss feels like public surrender. Closing the trade would mean admitting that the research, the essays, the carefully constructed thesis were, at least in timing, wrong. For many, that admission hurts more than the mark-to-market pain itself. Better to keep the position open and invite subscribers to wait for the eventual vindication. That is how the audience—and the identity built around being “right”—stays intact. I think Burry doubled down on $NBIS short, not because he had conviction, but because he needed to keep his substack alive!

Even if he had conviction that AI is a bubble, conviction without the willingness to update is just another form of blindness. The market does not care about the size of a following, the elegance of a substack, or the emotional cost of being wrong in public. It only prices the gap between narrative and reality.

In the end, every position is temporary, every thesis provisional. The traders who last are not those who never err, but those who can still see the truth when the evidence is clearly telling them otherwise.

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

This is so much bigger than one company, and orders of magnitude more dangerous to the economy and investors than Enron.

Nvidia’s AI push has echoes of Enron, says Big Short investor https://t.co/TZZVcg91NO

[Tradenometry @xiangwei36]

Michael Burry just doubled down on $NBIS shorts!

Let’s burn the shorts!🔥 🩳

[Michael Burry Stock Tracker ♟ @burrytracker]

Breaking: Michael Burry has disclosed his updated positions

He:
• Added to Nebius $NBIS shorts at $247
• Added to Micron $MU short at $924
• Added to Oracle $ORCL short at $152
• Added to Semiconductor ETF $SOXX shorts
• Added to Mercado Libre $MELI longs at $1850
• Added to Zoetis $ZTS long at $73.60

Michael Burry said "Nebius is what the top of a boom looks like" expecting the AI crash is incoming

[Tradenometry @xiangwei36]

🤡Michael Burry is making amateur mistakes! He is now doing revenge trades and he knew he was wrong.

Trading 101: do not add to the losing trades when you down big!

Market will not top until Michael Burry closes his shorts!

$NBIS $MU $ORCL $SOXL $SMH

[Michael Burry Stock Tracker ♟ @burrytracker]

Breaking: Michael Burry has disclosed his updated positions

He:
• Added to Nebius $NBIS shorts at $247
• Added to Micron $MU short at $924
• Added to Oracle $ORCL short at $152
• Added to Semiconductor ETF $SOXX shorts
• Added to Mercado Libre $MELI longs at $1850
• Added to Zoetis $ZTS long at $73.60

Michael Burry said "Nebius is what the top of a boom looks like" expecting the AI crash is incoming

[Tradenometry @xiangwei36]

$NBIS

Congratulations to all the Nebius shareholders! 🎉🍾🎊

You made it through the crazy ups and downs with this company! You didn’t flinch! You didn’t fall for the FUDs! You HODL! 💎 🙌 You are rewarded with massive gains today, while knowing Michael Burry kicked himself in the 🥜! What a beautiful day! 🥳

[Tradenometry @xiangwei36]

$AMD is a $1000 stock! Few understand this!

[Tradenometry @xiangwei36]

$AMD is a 600 dollar stock! Few understand this!

[Tradenometry @xiangwei36]

$SNDK $SNXX

💎 🙌

[Tradenometry @xiangwei36]

@ShanghaoJin 别科普了，本来就是因为散户没洗干净，才不拉涨的。你越说，散户都不下车了。。。

[Tradenometry @xiangwei36]

This is why you don’t chase because of some experts say so!

Photonics down after Jukan turned bullish!
$COHR -8%
$LITE -4%

Memory up after Jukan turned bearish!
$SNDK +2%

[Jukan @jukan05]

I think the market ultimately has no choice but to go sell memory, long optical in the "short term." Actually, some hedge funds already seem to have this position on.

There are three main reasons.

1. With Korean leveraged ETFs effectively dead, LPs are in a redemption rush, which could bring out additional sell on flow.

2. Nvidia is nerfing Rubin Ultra's HBM and responding with optics, tying multiple racks together, so that even if Rubin Ultra's per rack performance is not superior to Rubin, at the cluster level optics let the Rubin Ultra cluster hold an edge over the Rubin cluster. This holds even if Rubin Ultra's HBM nerf is a supply problem rather than a demand problem.

3. Consensus is forming that memory prices will peak within the next two quarters.

Medium to long term I am still a memory bull, but short term I am somewhat bearish on memory. I currently have no memory position.

[Tradenometry @xiangwei36]

👀 $MU $SNDK $SKHY

Let me tell you why memory demand will not peak anytime soon:

1. Token: token generation double every 6 months. These tokens need to be stored somewhere. HBM, DRAM, NAND, or HDD, it doesn’t matter. They have to be stored somewhere. These tokens are not going to disappear. They exist in different forms one way or the other. Some tokens exist in multiple layers at the same time, because of necessary redundancy. If you understand computer science, you know what I am talking about.

2. Memory Optimizations: we have different kinds of memory optimizations, like compression, memory pooling, or others. They are trying to solve the same problem, but it doesn’t mean the demand for memory goes down. It means these technologies will optimize memory usage for better economic purposes. Optimization doesn’t equal replacement. Memory demand will continue to explode because token generation grows exponentially!

3. AI Agents: while contents generated by human grows in a relatively steady pace, contents generated by AI agents grows exponentially! The most obvious example is coding. AI agents writing codes 24/7 nonstop. A project used to take weeks or months by dozens of engineers now only take days by AI agents. When the speed of generation 10x or 100x, the volume grows in the similar fashion! All the contents generated by AI will need to be stored somewhere. Some goes to HDD, some goes to NAND/SSD, some goes to DRAM. No matter where it goes, they have to be stored somewhere. That is the basic law of physics.

If you are still holding memory stocks like me, you are welcome! 🙏

[Jukan @jukan05]

I think the market ultimately has no choice but to go sell memory, long optical in the "short term." Actually, some hedge funds already seem to have this position on.

There are three main reasons.

1. With Korean leveraged ETFs effectively dead, LPs are in a redemption rush, which could bring out additional sell on flow.

2. Nvidia is nerfing Rubin Ultra's HBM and responding with optics, tying multiple racks together, so that even if Rubin Ultra's per rack performance is not superior to Rubin, at the cluster level optics let the Rubin Ultra cluster hold an edge over the Rubin cluster. This holds even if Rubin Ultra's HBM nerf is a supply problem rather than a demand problem.

3. Consensus is forming that memory prices will peak within the next two quarters.

Medium to long term I am still a memory bull, but short term I am somewhat bearish on memory. I currently have no memory position.

[Tradenometry @xiangwei36]

@Colosteve2000 Nah. $AMD has better CPU and GPU!

[Tradenometry @xiangwei36]

When you are chasing narratives that were made up by all these “experts”, then you are always late. It was memory, and now it is photonics all of a sudden. What changed in the past month was stock price and stock price only.

I have exposure on both camps, but I just hate to see all these “experts” manipulating the narratives like they get to decide where the stock price goes. 🤷‍♂️

$MU $SNDK $SKHY $COHR $LITE $AAOI $MRVL

[Jukan @jukan05]

I think the market ultimately has no choice but to go sell memory, long optical in the "short term." Actually, some hedge funds already seem to have this position on.

There are three main reasons.

1. With Korean leveraged ETFs effectively dead, LPs are in a redemption rush, which could bring out additional sell on flow.

2. Nvidia is nerfing Rubin Ultra's HBM and responding with optics, tying multiple racks together, so that even if Rubin Ultra's per rack performance is not superior to Rubin, at the cluster level optics let the Rubin Ultra cluster hold an edge over the Rubin cluster. This holds even if Rubin Ultra's HBM nerf is a supply problem rather than a demand problem.

3. Consensus is forming that memory prices will peak within the next two quarters.

Medium to long term I am still a memory bull, but short term I am somewhat bearish on memory. I currently have no memory position.

[Tradenometry @xiangwei36]

Very typical stock price driven sentiment.

Remember this:

FUNDAMENTALS DON’T LIE, BUT PEOPLE DO!

$SNDK $MU $SKHY

[Jukan @jukan05]

I think the market ultimately has no choice but to go sell memory, long optical in the "short term." Actually, some hedge funds already seem to have this position on.

There are three main reasons.

1. With Korean leveraged ETFs effectively dead, LPs are in a redemption rush, which could bring out additional sell on flow.

2. Nvidia is nerfing Rubin Ultra's HBM and responding with optics, tying multiple racks together, so that even if Rubin Ultra's per rack performance is not superior to Rubin, at the cluster level optics let the Rubin Ultra cluster hold an edge over the Rubin cluster. This holds even if Rubin Ultra's HBM nerf is a supply problem rather than a demand problem.

3. Consensus is forming that memory prices will peak within the next two quarters.

Medium to long term I am still a memory bull, but short term I am somewhat bearish on memory. I currently have no memory position.

[Tradenometry @xiangwei36]

Sign me up! $SKHY

[Jukan @jukan05]

According to Korean media reports, SK Hynix's expected shareholder return program is as follows:

SK Hynix is preparing a shareholder return package of around 100 trillion won ($71 billion), including share buybacks and cash dividends.

The buyback is expected to reach 40 trillion won ($28.4 billion).

That is a volume in the low 2% range of total shares, a level similar to the new shares issued for its American depositary receipt (ADR) listing (2.5% of total shares).

[Tradenometry @xiangwei36]

$SNDK $MU

Bears: "Memory is cyclical!"

Me: "But their long-term agreement last 5 years, which gives them the price floor for 5 years, without capping the upside!"

Bears: "Memory is cyclical!"

Me: "Hyperscalers are increasing Capex. Google just did another 10 part bond sales to fund their Capex!"

Bears: "Memory is cyclical!"

Me: "The supply is only increasing by 20% each year for the next 3-5 years, but the demand is doubling every 6 month!"

Bears: "Memory is cyclical!"

Me: "SanDisk just issued new 14 billion dollar stock buybacks. Micron is also going to buy back their stocks later this year. They have the cash to buy back 50% of the sharesoutstanding if they want to!"

Bears: "Memory is cyclical!"

Me: "They are projected to have over 80% gross margin for the next 3 years."

Bears: "Memory is cyclical!"
Me: 🤔

[Marc Lehman @markflowchatter]

BERNSTEIN comments on $SNDK -

last line sticks out **

Sandisk's FQ4 call confirmed LTA coverage now exceeds 50% of FY27 bits and twothirds of FY28 bits, with minimum contracted value of $94B (at floor pricing) and $16.5B
of financial guarantees. This pushes actual coverage past the 60% LTA-penetration scenario
modeled in our New Memory LTA Part 1 and makes the 60-80% penetration scenarios the
most relevant for investors, on our estimates.

This implies downside is more protected than
previously thought, at over $200 EPS in FY30 even assuming >70% market price collapse.

[Tradenometry @xiangwei36]

NFP lost 23k jobs and unemployment rate fell to 4.1% 😂

Rate cuts coming?

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

JULY U.S. JOBS REPORT 👇

NONFARM PAYROLLS -23K, (Est. +80K)
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.1%, (Est. 4.2%)

AVG. HOURLY EARNINGS MoM 0.1%, (Est. 0.3%)
AVG. HOURLY EARNINGS YoY 3.2%, (Est. 3.5%)

PARTICIPATION RATE 61.4%, (Est. 61.6%)
PRIVATE PAYROLLS +30K, (Est. +82K)

AVG. WORKWEEK 34.3 HOURS, (Est. 34.3)

MAY + JUNE COMBINED REVISED LOWER BY -103K

[Tradenometry @xiangwei36]

$AMD $SNDK

AMD & SanDisk 2026 2Q Earnings Breakdown! What Went Wrong? https://t.co/sCKG1b1HBm via @YouTube

[Tradenometry @xiangwei36]

Michael Burry does not give up! He just shorted $NBIS and $ORCL!

He literally is comparing AI to the housing bubble in 2008! 😂 I posted this like 2 days ago 😂 it’s like I knew he is making the comparison! 😂 I guess the sub pays really well!

[Tradenometry @xiangwei36]

Michael Burry is shorting Nvidia, Micron, SOXX, and the entire AI trade because he saw a GPU once and had a PTSD flashback to 2008 subprime mortgages.

Bro really looked at the biggest technological leap since electricity and said “this is just housing but with more FLOPS.” 😂

$NVDA $MU $SOXX