BCA’s US Equity Risk Indicator is one standard deviation above its mean, which historically has signaled short to intermediate-term corrections in the market.
@SoberLook
We are in a bubble.
However, tech insiders continue to buy, and the buy-to-sell ratio remains strongly positive, which is undoubtedly bullish.
IMO, the financial and technology sectors have the smartest insiders, and I'm not sure it's a good idea to bet against them right now.
How long can this bubble last before a major top? I don't know. But for now, it doesn't seem like the time yet.
Jim Paulsen’s policy pressures index, which combines oil prices, Treasury yields, and the dollar, suggests that the economy’s strong momentum is facing mounting headwinds.
Source: @jimwpaulsen
As suggested in the previous post, the dollar experienced a significant devaluation relative to the yuan.
According to this analogy/leading indicator, this trend is likely to continue.
#IntermarketRelationship
NEVER in history has the Heavy Truck Index 2-year rate of change fallen below -25% without a recession following.
Have market dynamics really changed, or is it just a matter of time?
Just BUY gold.
A clear buy setup as outflows reach extreme levels, which is historically a strong contrarian bullish signal.
As of today, we still have: Elevated geopolitical risks, persistent fiscal deficits, and continued central bank demand.
The macro background remains intact.
Copper now diverging from gold in a meaningful way.
Yes, AI, industrial demand, and onshoring are part of the story.
But the real driver is a tightening supply-demand imbalance that the market is only beginning to price in.
That said:
Metals rarely stay disconnected for long.
This gap is setting the stage for gold to become the next catch-up trade, in my view.
https://t.co/sJjIAEqwqb
IMHO, one of the best ways to measure market insanity is by comparing it to its % dist from the exponential growth trendline.
The big question is: top or blow-off top?
In late 2021, it marked a meaningful top. However, compared to the dotcom bubble, this measure looks like a baby.