X.sh9933

产业|大A投机客。

[X.sh9933 @xsh9933]

@Valen9223 同意，机器人赛道开始后，可能比亚迪都要强过宇树

[Jukan @ ICML @jukan05]

Chinese and Japanese Aluminum Capacitor Leaders Join the Price Hike

As the second half of the year begins, aluminum capacitors have entered a new round of price increases. Rubycon, Japan's third largest aluminum capacitor maker, has issued a price increase notice, raising prices starting August 1, and has not ruled out a possible second increase thereafter. Coincidentally, Jiang Hai, the leading Chinese aluminum capacitor maker, has also announced a price increase. With the leading aluminum capacitor makers in both China and Japan joining the price hike one after another, conditions have become favorable for Taiwanese makers to pass on cost pressure to their customers.

With Rubycon joining the price increase, Japan's top three aluminum capacitor makers, Nippon Chemicon, Nichicon, and Rubycon, have now effectively all moved to raise prices.

Because aluminum capacitors are used in smaller quantities in end devices than MLCCs or chip resistors, their price increases were relatively muted in past hike cycles. This time, however, the simultaneous increase by the leading Japanese makers amid the AI infrastructure boom is seen as unusual within the supply chain. Beyond the fact that the three Japanese makers ship considerable volumes for AI servers, the sharp rise in cost pressure for upstream raw materials such as lead pins and aluminum cases has supported this wave of price increases by the Japanese aluminum capacitor makers.

Rubycon, Japan's third largest aluminum capacitor maker, emphasized the following in its price increase notice. Although the Middle East is moving toward an end to conflict, crude oil prices remain at high levels and have already had a major impact on the prices and supply of petroleum related products. As a result, Rubycon's various suppliers have implemented broad price increases spanning raw materials, auxiliary materials, and even logistics costs.

Rubycon also noted that the prices of metal materials, centered on aluminum, copper, and tin, have continued to climb since last year, and that this upward trend has intensified further under the current circumstances. In particular, the prices of major raw materials remain at unprecedentedly high levels. Under present conditions, it has become extremely difficult for Rubycon to absorb the soaring costs through its own efforts alone. To stabilize supply and sustain the business, the company has regrettably decided to adjust the prices of its products, and depending on how the international situation develops going forward, it may adjust prices again.

According to Rubycon's price increase notice, the scope of the increase covers aluminum electrolytic capacitors, solid aluminum capacitors, and film capacitors, with the new prices expected to take effect from August 1, 2026.

Also in late June, Jiang Hai, the leading Chinese aluminum capacitor maker, sent a price increase notice to its customers. Jiang Hai likewise cited the continued sharp rise in raw material prices, such as aluminum foil, chemical raw materials, and carbon powder, along with electricity costs, noting that the upward trend has yet to ease. Given that the current cost structure has already far exceeded the original pricing model, the company stated that adjusting product prices was unavoidable. The scope of the adjustment covers three product categories: aluminum capacitors, film capacitors, and supercapacitors.

[Vaelis @Vaelis_X]

The battery inside your next AI smartphone may end up being just as important as the AI chip itself.

The company is $ENVX.

Enovix isn’t trying to build another lithium-ion battery. It’s attempting to solve one of the biggest physical constraints facing edge AI: how do you fit significantly more energy into the same device without making it thicker, heavier, or unsafe? If the company succeeds, it won’t just participate in the mobile AI cycle—it could become one of the critical enabling technologies behind it.

The Silicon Bottleneck:

The next generation of AI smartphones and smart glasses will consume far more power than today’s devices. Running LLMs locally, powering always-on AI assistants, and supporting increasingly complex on-device inference all require dramatically higher energy density, yet consumers still expect devices to become thinner rather than thicker.

Traditional graphite anodes are approaching their practical limits.

Enovix replaces graphite with a high-silicon anode built around its proprietary 3D cell architecture and BrakeFlow safety system, allowing substantially higher energy density while addressing the expansion problems that have historically prevented silicon from being commercialised at scale.

The moat isn’t simply the silicon chemistry. Numerous companies have experimented with silicon anodes for years. The difficult part has always been controlling silicon expansion over hundreds of charge cycles while manufacturing the cells consistently at commercial scale. That is where Enovix believes its 3D constraint architecture, patent portfolio, and manufacturing process create the real competitive advantage.

If mobile AI requires batteries that are 20-45% more energy-dense while remaining thin enough to accommodate increasingly powerful AI chips and cooling systems, then the bottleneck shifts away from battery assembly and toward the enabling cell architecture itself. That’s the layer Enovix is trying to own.

The 0.7C Story:

The market largely interpreted the removal of the 0.7C qualification test as a delay.

I think it represented something much more important.

Honor and a second Tier-1 OEM abandoned the 0.7C requirement and moved Enovix into the standard 0.2C qualification framework used for commercial smartphone batteries. That wasn’t simply a procedural change—it removed what had become the largest qualification barrier preventing Enovix from entering the smartphone market.

Major OEMs do not rewrite qualification pathways for technologies they believe have no future. If anything, it suggests the discussion has shifted from proving whether the battery works to validating it for volume production.

That distinction is easy to miss, but it fundamentally changes where Enovix sits in the commercialisation process.

From Technology To Manufacturing:

For years, investors questioned whether Enovix could manufacture these batteries economically at scale.

That question is becoming increasingly difficult to argue.

Fab2 in Malaysia has already been built, yields have exceeded 90% across most production zones, commercial production for AI smart eyewear has begun, and the company has already shipped EX-2M samples into the smartphone ecosystem. The debate is becoming less about whether the technology works and more about how quickly production ramps.

Conclusion:

What makes Enovix interesting is not simply that it has developed a better battery.

The larger thesis is that edge AI may require a step-change in battery technology just as much as it requires better processors. AI models will continue becoming more capable, but unless battery technology improves alongside them, much of that capability cannot be delivered inside thin, consumer devices.

If that proves true, companies enabling the next generation of battery architecture become infrastructure providers for the mobile AI ecosystem rather than just component suppliers.

Enovix is attempting to build exactly that position.

NFA. Do your own DD

[X.sh9933 @xsh9933]

@JoeAnima thanks

[X.sh9933 @xsh9933]

@grok @LMDFinance 兴发集团上涨是因为红磷？@grok

[我不是糖宝 @iYXwivACYC88764]

立讯的晚餐会要点总结如下：　
1、如果光模块是个短期的生意，比如只有两到三年的景气度，那公司就不想做了，是谷歌的人说2030年测算有10亿只光模块（不算npo啥的）的需求，我们才进来的。我们的研发团队在日本，团队的人还是谷歌帮我们面试的。　
2、光模块不是代工，是自己出的方案，初期因为产能爬坡利润率没有旭创和新易盛高，但未来会比他们高，现在公司的良率有90～95，是最好的（行业平均70～80，龙头85～90）谷歌找公司就是来颠覆这个行业的（真是公司原话）。　
3、原本定的28年消费电子：汽车：通信4：3：3，但是因为消费电子增长太快，现在难说了（……），判断AI的第二场是端侧ai，第三场是应用。　
4、光模块8月开始出货，1.6T，明年2.4T相关也有机会，客户帮我们锁了物料，我们绝对不会卷的，800G我们报价都是400美金（行业350），产能这块，1条线100～120万只产能（800G和1.6T合在一起），我们现在有2条线的产能，明年达到10条线（1000w只的来源），1条线我们的capex只要2个亿（远低于行业……作为参考，旭创新易盛3～4亿，lite 7～8亿），主要是因为我们很多专用设备（比如耦合）都是自己搞的，我们自动化率行业最高，达到90%，所以我们成本低，我们的优势就是自动化产线。　
5、今天和Marvell的合作怎么解读？常态化供应的保障机制。

[パウロ @paurooteri]

そうそう、これこれ、検査設備が異なるCoPoS

CoPoSは、ガラス基板、パネルレベル再分配（RDL）、大型露光、高精度ボンディング、超低反り制御、そして全く新しい測定・検査機構を包含する。必要な設備は、既存のCoWoS生産ラインとは大きく異なる。

TSMCのCoPoS機器デモ機第1陣が、検証のためCaiyu Global Equipment Chainに設���されました。

TSMCは、従来の円形ウェハをより大きな長方形のガラスパネルに変換してパッケージングするCoPoS（Chip-on-Panel-on-Substrate）技術の展開を加速させている。これは、今後数年間で増加するAI GPUや高性能コンピューティング（HPC）チップのパッケージング需要に対応するものだ。サプライチェーン関係者によると、最初のデモ機はTSMCの子会社であるTSMC C&D施設に設置されたという。

TSMCの会長であるC.C. Wei氏は、2026年4月の決算説明会で初めてCoPoSについて言及した。最近、知的財産庁はTSMCが「TSMC-COPOS」という商標を申請したことも発表した。

最近、TSMCのCoPoS技術ロードマップがより明確になった。装置サプライチェーン評価リストの第一弾が策定され、各メーカーはTSMCの研究開発の進��状況を注視し、厳格な認証取得を目指して努力している。

機器リストによると、国際的な大手企業と台湾の機器メーカーは、ガラス基板加工、フォトレジスト塗布、露光、銅めっき、研削、チップ実装、成形、検査、最終選別といった工程全体に既に参入しており、順次検証・認証段階に入っている。TSMCによる認証が完了すれば、CoPoS機器の価格と販売量の増加に伴い、大きな利益を得られると期待されている。

TSMCの龍潭工場では現在、初の試作生産ラインが稼働しており、関連機器の設置と検証が進められている。サプライチェーン関係者によると、初期のCoPoS機器リストは主にCoWoS世代の機器を踏襲しているものの、CoPoS開発の難易度が大幅に上昇したため、多くの企業が予想よりも検証の進捗が遅れているという。例えば、ラムリサーチが米国の主要機器メーカーを上回り、TSMCの試作生産ライン向けデモ機器の受注を獲得したとの噂が���まっているほか、ベネリとシンウィンも認証取得の進捗で競合他社をリードしている。

サプライチェーン関係者によると、CoPoS機器の認証取得はより困難だという。機器メーカーはまず技術情報と実験データを提供しなければならず、顧客がそれらを妥当と判断した後で初めて、自社製品を機器メーカーに持ち込んで試験を受けることができる。

デモ機器は通常、検証のために顧客に無償で提供されます。機器メーカーはまず自社のリソースを研究開発と製造に投資し、顧客が実際の生産テストを実施できるようにする必要があります。機器の納入からデモ検証の完了までは約3ヶ月かかりますが、その後の顧客検証と量産認証にはさらに時間がかかります。検証開始から正式な調達資格の取得まで、通常は約1年半かかります。

業界関係者によると、���場に出回っているほとんどのCoPoS機器ベンダーは、まだデモ機を1、2台しか用意できておらず、量産には程遠い段階にあるという。デモ機が認証プロセスを通過したとしても、量産受注が保証されるわけではない。技術、コスト、顧客戦略の調整によってベンダーが淘汰される可能性もあり、競争は熾烈だ。しかし、デモが成功裏に完了し、正式な認証プロセスが開始されれば、最終的に受注を獲得できる可能性は低いとは言えない。

ほとんどのCoPoS端末は特殊仕様の端末であり、その単価は既存の機器プラットフォームよりも高額になるのが一般的です。ただし、これらはまだ認証段階にあるため、実際の価格は顧客の最終的なニーズによって異なります。

サプライチェーンの予測によると、CoPoSの量産は早ければ2029年にも開始される可能性がある。2028年に装置製造を開始し、2030年までに本格的な量産体制に入るという従来の市場予測は、おそらく控えめなものだろう。TSMCは開発を加速させており、技術開発が順調に進めば、2029年には量産体制が大��く進展する可能性がある。

業界関係者は、CoPoSは単にCoWoSプロセスをスケールアップしたものではなく、正方形パネルを中心とした新しいパッケージング生産ラインの再構築であると強調している。CoPoSは、ガラス基板、パネルレベル再分配（RDL）、大型露光、高精度ボンディング、超低反り制御、そして全く新しい測定・検査機構を包含する。必要な設備は、既存のCoWoS生産ラインとは大きく異なる。

TSMCのCoPoS機器リストを見ると、今回TSMCが発表した露光・コーティング機器のラインナップは非常に充実しており、キヤノンのFPA-5525iV LF2露光装置、SUSSのDSC310s Gen4露光装置およびACS310 Gen2コーティング／現像プラットフォーム装置、TELのLITHIUS Pro SQ3およびSCREENのLM-3000、そしてサイエンテックのパネルレベル剥離層コーティング装置などが含まれている。

金属化装置および銅めっき装置に関しては、CoPoSにおけるより大型のRDLとより微細な回路プロセスへのニーズの高まりにより、装置の需要も増加している。Applied Materials、KLA-Tencor、Liding Precisionなどがそのリストに名を連ねており、銅めっき装置はLam ResearchのSABRE 3D FP、UBMのエッチング装置にはLam ResearchのQuaros FPなどが挙げられる。

研削加工およびレーザー加工の分野では、日本のディスコが関連機器の受注をほぼ完全に確保しており、日東電工はフレームマウントおよびUV消去装置を提供し、リンテックはラミネーションおよびテープ剥離プロセスを担当している。KNSのAPTURA WPとASMPTのFirebird XQは、流体レスダイアタッチ装置市場に参入しており、日本の芝浦はTFC-6600-WBおよびTFC-6500-WBシステムを提供し、台湾のメーカーである万潤は充填装置市場に参入している。

湿式加工装置に関しては、Hung-SooとHsin-YunはCoPoSサプライチェーンの恩恵を受けている台湾の重要なメーカーです。InnoluxのBPO-60A、KEの450Aと450A-HT、Chih-ShengのHOMOL-AP31、HP-AP31、CSL-A300PLなどの装置は、ベーキングや熱処理工程で使用されています。

成形装置に関しては、日本のTOWAとYAMADAが既に参入している。リフローはんだ付け装置は、SEMIGEARとHellerが供給している。

さらに、ガラス基板へのCoPoSの導入により、測定と検査の重要性が大幅に高まり、台湾のメーカーはこの分野で重要な地位を獲得することができた。

中でも、ベリコはV5P310 Pro Glass AXI検査装置とV5300 Macro AOIシステムを同時に稼働させ、第一波の装置サプライチェーンの中心的存在となった。クリスタルテクノロジーはオーバー��イ測定を担当し、ウェイケセミコンダクターは3D輪郭・寸法測定市場に参入した。また、多くの企業が日本のコベルコと協力してベベル検査・ボンディングシフト測定装置市場に参入した。

リストに含まれる台湾のメーカーは、Chih-Mao、Chia-Teng、Chun-Hua、Da-Liang、Ya-Ya、Chia-Chen、Ho-Hua です。

業界アナリストは、CoPoSが台湾の機器メーカーに事業再編の機会を提供すると考えている。特に、ガラス基板、パネルレベル露光、大型銅めっき、低反り制御、高精度検査といった分野における新たな技術的障壁は、これまでCoWoSサプライチェーンへの参入に失敗した多くの機器メーカーに、競争に復帰する新たなチャンスを与えている。また、高度な包装技術の進歩は、Santex、Huayang Machinery、Yuechengといった企業に新たな成長機会をもたらし、これらの企業は変革を加速させている。

[Jukan @ ICML @jukan05]

This is a great piece explaining why Nvidia’s CMX rack could drive massive NAND demand. I highly recommend giving it a read.

https://t.co/PbmPcmFYjY

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

In terms of personal notes:

1. Priortech owns 21% of $CAMT, ~1.35x their MC, seems more like holding co.

2. Bit Digital people kept shouting, but NAV discount is not clean $WYFI, lot of dilution + not AI parent.

3. Wistron (3231) is the best one I've seen since $SIVE + Ayar + Wiwynn are one of my favorite trio.

~$16.2B MC, Q1 revenue up a ridiculous amount with 144% Y/Y growth.

Owns 35.46% of Wiwynn, which is ~0.66x of MC. I'd expect Wiwynn to keep on growing.

4. Sin-American Silicon 5483 does own 46.64% of GlobalWafers (6488).

MC is $3.5B, stake value is ~$7.9B, but not exactly growing too fast independently, though it's heavily trading heavily discount to NAV.

5. Iljin Holdings owns 42.99% of Iljin Electric, it's ~$0.22B MC vs. ~$1.13B NAV holding. This was transformer/cable DC related.

But again idk if I trust korean stocks for NAV unlock, probably better for activist investors.

6. Simmtech Holdings was ~$0.17B MC vs. ~$1.0B of parent, which also looks ridiculous.

So 6x+ NAV. PCB substrate related name. Also another prob don't trust korean governance type name.

I think both $ACMR and WUS have H-Share subsidiary listing soon, and those were the biggest NAV discounts with independent growth.

Then you have a highly successful activist going after WUS so I'd expect some middle ground there.

So maybe I'll put more concentration into those on top of what I already own Monday, we'll see. And Wistron was growing very fast independently.

I'm still doing research, normally this goes in shower thoughts since I haven't formally made a conclusion, but thought others might be interested.

[X.sh9933 @xsh9933]

@QQ_Timmy 感谢分享！

[駿HaYaO @QQ_Timmy]

JNTC 成功開發全球首創 2.0mmT TGV 玻璃基板

JNTC（KOSDAQ: 204270）於6月19日宣布，成功開發全球首創厚度達2.0mmT的高難度TGV（Through Glass Via）玻璃基板，���前已擁有從0.3mmT至2.0mmT的完整產品線，並同步開發下一代3.0mmT產品。

此玻璃基板在最關鍵的「微裂紋」（Micro-Crack）問題上，通過基板製造商嚴格的「無裂紋」（Crack-Free）可靠性測試，已完成台灣及韓國主要基板廠驗證，日本材料廠驗證也正在進行中。

JNTC正參與兩家「全球最大綜合半導體公司」的新專案。5月底已與一家主要韓國財閥簽署MOU，預計7月將與日本全球基板製造商簽訂追加合約，更多合約陸續推進，目標2027年量產。

公司已透過併購Comet完成垂直整合，並建立韓國首條TGV量產線，大幅提升品質與成本競爭力。代表趙南赫表示，TGV玻璃基板將成為公司中長期成長引擎，助其在AI半導體先進封裝領域確立全球領導地位。

[Oliver Groß @minenergybiz]

Goldman: "We continue to expect a meaningful structural supply/demand deficit for uranium through 2045" ⚛️⚡️

[駿HaYaO @QQ_Timmy]

矽電容（Silicon Capacitor）
1. 誕生背景與核心優勢
傳統鋁質電容與常規MLCC在HPC、AI伺服器、1.6T及以上高端光模組等高速、高發熱場景下，已無法滿足低熱敏、高穩定性、高頻濾波的需求。矽電容正是為此應運而生。核心優勢：
- 透過閾值優化大幅提升性能，能有效過濾高速電流雜波、降低發熱干擾、保護主晶片。
- 大幅提升高端模組整體運行穩定性。
- 非MLCC：無需陶瓷封裝，以裸晶形態存在，直接替代主晶片周邊的高頻MLCC及傳統鋁質電容，是高端算力與光通��專用的無源器件。

2. 技術與工藝特點
- 製程要求：僅需8吋、12吋成熟晶圓製程，無需5nm/7nm等先進製程。
- 核心技術壁壘：不在晶圓工藝複雜度，而在於電容/電感設計能力以及電力基礎技術累積。
- 最大工藝難點：切割環節（需精準避免損壞晶片）。國內掌握成熟切割工藝的廠商極少，這是當前產業核心壁壘。
- MLCC廠商轉產難度：極高。缺乏專項設計經驗與電力技術累積，跨界嘗試進展緩慢。

3. 完整產業鏈分工
- 晶圓製造：目前主要依賴國外晶圓廠。
- 封測環節：
‧ CP測試
‧ 晶圓減薄
‧ 磨平
‧ 雷射切割（核心設備來自日本）
- 出貨形式：以裸晶晶圓形式交付下游。
- 成本結構：封裝成本約占單顆整體成本的30%。

4. 產能、良率與��產
- 晶圓尺寸：8吋與12吋均已量產。
- 單片晶圓產量：少則數萬顆，多則二十多萬顆（高端模組單片可達20-30萬顆）。
- 產能壁壘：量產階段壁壘不高，可透過新增設備快速擴產。
- 擴產規劃：多家企業三期工廠建設中，同時規劃先進封裝產能擴建。

5. 下游應用場景與用量（核心驅動力）
主要應用領域：高速光模組與HPC/AI伺服器。高速光模組：
800G光模組已部分搭載矽電容商用；1.6T光模組已正式商用出貨，單顆1.6T光模組需用到近20顆矽電容；後續3.2T光模組的矽電容用量將大幅提升。
AI伺服器：
算力模組整體用量龐大，例如英偉達相關AI伺服器單顆可使用4-6萬顆矽電容。
貼裝方式：由下游光模組廠商自行負責MSAP貼裝。
使用邏輯：並非絕對必須，但隨著1.6T+國產化推進，傳統電容無法滿足高傳輸速率與穩定性需求，矽電容成為優先替代方案。

6. 市場空間
對標MLCC成熟市場，矽電容整體市場空間可達數十��美元級別。目前MLCC尚未被完全替代，成長空間充足。

7. 競爭格局
海外：Murata、ROHM等成熟龍頭，技術領先。
中國國內：優質設計廠商各具特色，其中蘇納光電進展最快，已實現小批量量產（月產數百萬顆），深度綁定國內頭部光模組廠商。
傳統封測大廠（如日月光、矽品）：短期內不會重點布局。原因在於矽電容屬於細分利基賽道，毛利低於HBM、CoWoS、2.5D/3D等主晶片高端封裝，非其策略重點。

8. 獲利水平
矽電容封測毛利率低於HBM、CoWoS等高端封裝，但因雷射切割等環節在中國國內稀缺性高，目前整體利潤水平較好。

https://t.co/MvcsE33q9K

[X.sh9933 @xsh9933]

@4DdPxEfoio48231 能做到的太少了

[X.sh9933 @xsh9933]

玻璃基板成为必须。

打孔，铜填充量和长期热可靠性是影响良率关键。

标的就应该从这三个方面来选。

[Jukan @ ICML @jukan05]

TSMC Teams Up with Ibiden and Innolux to Push CoPoS — Reportedly Flooring the Accelerator in Glass Substrates

To meet robust AI chip demand, TSMC is not only ramping CoWoS advanced packaging capacity but has, for the first time, disclosed progress on its "glass substrate" technology. The company further signaled that the next-generation advanced packaging battle is gradually shifting from CoWoS to CoPoS (Chip-on-Panel-on-Substrate), as it moves to build out a complete ecosystem ahead of the curve.

According to equipment-side sources, TSMC recently shared a "Glass Substrate Development for CoWoS" program with its supply chain. It has confirmed a partnership with ABF substrate giant Ibiden and panel maker Innolux to jointly validate the feasibility of introducing glass substrates into next-generation CoWoS advanced packaging. The aim is to address the warpage, thermal management, signal transmission, and power delivery challenges that loom over future large-die AI chip packaging.

At the same time, the move reflects rapidly intensifying customer demands around technical specifications and capacity, as well as mounting competitive pressure from Intel and Samsung Electronics. That pressure has finally pushed TSMC—long known for advancing R&D on a "cautious, not aggressive" basis—to step on the accelerator.

Glass substrates are viewed as a key technology for the "post-CoWoS era" thanks to their low warpage, low thermal expansion, high rigidity, and excellent signal and power-delivery characteristics. Supply chain sources say the three-way collaboration among TSMC, Ibiden, and Innolux, together with simulation validation, has shown that glass substrates can improve the package-warpage indicator COP (Chip on Package) by 16%, lower the effective coefficient of thermal expansion (Effective CTE) by 19%, and raise the effective modulus (Effective Modulus) by 31%.

On power integrity, resistance fell by 27% and inductance by 42%. Overall, introducing glass substrates can deliver a marked improvement in package performance (PKG Improvement).

TSMC nonetheless stressed that continued research and validation are still needed on glass thickness (Glass Thickness) and large-size CoWoS layout (Large-size CoWoS Layout). While full-scale mass production remains some distance away, this marks the first time TSMC has publicly disclosed joint glass-substrate validation results with Ibiden and Innolux—signaling that glass substrates have formally entered the industrialization-validation phase.

Industry observers added that the 16% COP improvement indicates package warpage is being effectively controlled. As AI GPU dies grow ever larger—with NVIDIA's GB200, GB300, and the now-ramping Rubin platform all expanding in package size—the importance of package flatness and warpage control has risen sharply. The performance glass substrates show in reducing warpage should help lift the yield and reliability of large packages.

In addition, the 19% reduction in SBT effective CTE shows improved matching between the glass material and the silicon die.

Today, silicon's CTE differs substantially from that of conventional organic substrates, making it prone to stress under temperature swings that can compromise package reliability. By contrast, glass has a CTE closer to that of silicon, which helps reduce thermal stress and mitigate cracking and solder-joint fatigue. The 31% gain in effective modulus means higher overall rigidity, providing better structural support. In particular, as HBM stack heights keep increasing, substrate rigidity is becoming a critical condition for supporting large packages.

The test sample TSMC used this time featured a 0.8mm glass core substrate, a package spec of 5x reticle CoW, and an overall package size of 85×110mm—an AI GPU package-class footprint. TSMC specifically emphasized "No SeWaRe (severe warpage) & Delamination," meaning no severe warpage or delamination/peeling—both yield killers—occurred during testing.

For glass substrates, material bonding reliability has always been a key challenge, so maintaining a stable structure at large package sizes demonstrates considerable progress in technical maturity.

Another focus of the program was the comparison between Glass-SBT and Organic-SBT. TSMC noted that Glass-SBT achieves "thin but better COP," whereas Organic-SBT shows "thick but worse COP"—glass substrates can stay thinner while simultaneously improving package flatness and reliability.

The partner roster also hints at the direction of the future supply chain.

Ibiden currently sits in the critical substrate supply chain for NVIDIA and AMD AI chips and is regarded as a key player in industrializing glass substrates. It previously announced a ¥500 billion investment to expand its new Ono plant in Gifu Prefecture, dedicated to high-end packaging substrates for AI servers—underscoring its strong ambitions in the AI advanced-packaging market. Innolux's inclusion on the partner list is likewise seen as an important step toward staking out the next-generation glass-substrate battlefield.

Industry sources say the biggest challenge for glass substrates is not the glass itself but Through Glass Via (TGV) technology. Because glass is fundamentally an insulator, tens of thousands of TGVs must be formed to create vertical conductive paths before signal and power transmission becomes possible.

Glass is also both hard and brittle, making it prone to micro-cracks during processing that can affect reliability and yield. As a result, via forming, copper-fill quality, and long-term thermal reliability are considered the three core hurdles to mass-producing glass substrates.

Separately, Intel began investing in glass-substrate R&D more than a decade ago and is regarded as the earliest and deepest player globally. Its glass-substrate pilot line in Arizona is gradually moving toward commercialization, and Intel is aiming to win AI GPU and ASIC customer orders through glass substrates and ultra-large chiplet packaging.

Samsung Electro-Mechanics (Semco) established a glass-substrate pilot line in 2025 and has set up a joint venture with Japan's Sumitomo Chemical group to build out a glass-substrate supply chain ahead of the market.

$TSM

[駿HaYaO @QQ_Timmy]

台積電正積極準備正式量產下一代半導體封裝技術「面板級封裝（PLP）」，將與三星電子展開激烈競爭。

PLP是將切割後的晶片封裝在方形面板上的先進技術，相較傳統圓形晶圓級封裝（WLP），可大幅提升產能。600×600mm方形面板的晶片產出量，是主流300mm晶圓的5~6倍，能有效減少邊角廢料，顯著提高AI半導體的生產力。

據業內消息，台積電已在建立材料、設備與供應鏈，目前正與國內外廠商洽談投資設廠，預計最快明年開始批量生產。此舉被視為台積電全力搶攻AI晶片市場的重要一步，已獲得全球AI半導體大客戶訂單。

三星電子在PLP領���領先，2019年收購三星電機PLP事業後，已將技術應用於行動處理器（AP）與電源管理IC（PMIC），並計劃擴大至高性能運算（HPC）及AI晶片。雙方競爭將進一步加劇，尤其在玻璃基板等下一代基材領域。

隨著AI需求爆炸性成長，全球OSAT廠也紛紛投入PLP，市場前景看好。台積電從原本的被動跟進，轉為積極布局，預計2025-2026年將形成與三星雙雄爭霸的局面

[SemiAnalysis @SemiAnalysis_]

Is SMIC N+3’s Metal Pitch Smaller than Intel 18A’s?
SMIC N+3 Node Deep Dive vs TSMC N6, TechInsights Private Equity Sale,
SemiAnalysis Teardown Engineering & Evaluation Lab, HiSilicon Kirin 9030, Process Technology,
Pattering, Cell Architecture

https://t.co/Pytg7SCipN

[Jukan @ ICML @jukan05]

《GF Overseas Electronics & Communications》

☄️ CCL: PTFE material adopted for orthogonal backplanes

👉 Nvidia has confirmed the adoption of PTFE as the core material for Rubin Ultra orthogonal backplanes. Below is our related analysis.

☀️ Orthogonal backplanes officially adopt PTFE material

According to our industry-chain checks, the previous M9 + Q-glass cloth solution failed to meet the required electrical performance standards. As a result, PTFE was ultimately selected as the core material for orthogonal backplanes.

PTFE offers excellent high-frequency transmission characteristics, with lower signal loss, and can support 337G and above SerDes signal transmission on the Rubin Ultra platform.
Traditional PTFE materials are relatively soft, making them prone to burr formation during drilling, which creates challenges for mass production. However, the newly developed silicon dioxide, SiO₂, filler-modified PTFE has significantly improved mechanical rigidity. This material has now successfully passed electrical performance testing and mass-production feasibility validation.

☀️ PTFE to gradually replace traditional glass-fiber materials

PTFE CCL no longer uses glass-fiber cloth. The production process involves coating hydrocarbon resin onto the PTFE surface, then directly laminating it with copper foil.

According to our checks, the unit price of the modified PTFE material is around RMB 150,000 per ton, and each CCL sheet uses approximately 800g of PTFE. The selling price of a finished PTFE CCL sheet can reach RMB 2,500.

At present, the final design of the orthogonal backplane has not yet been determined. Candidate designs include mixed-stack combinations of 78-layer and 108-layer structures using PTFE CCL / M9-Q cloth / ABF-filled CCL. The final design is expected to be confirmed in July.

☀️ Summary of PTFE industry-chain beneficiaries

We expect Shengyi Technology, https://t.co/MyWBLDCSCJ, to become the primary supplier of PTFE CCL. Taiflex, https://t.co/J88n54Nui2, is currently in the product qualification stage and has a high chance of becoming a secondary supplier.

On the upstream raw-material side, Dongyue Group, https://t.co/GCCsVNbOdg, is currently Shengyi Technology’s key PTFE raw-material supplier. Daikin, https://t.co/ZAZYazoMw4, and Haohua Chemical, https://t.co/O0itg20aMk, are potential raw-material suppliers.

Based on the initial order scale, the PTFE CCL TAM corresponding to the 2027 Kyber platform could reach RMB 8 billion. Subsequent volume ramp from the Feynman platform is expected to drive additional demand.

Due to the complexity of the manufacturing process, mass production of midplane-related products is expected to begin from the end of 2026.

The new process is also positive for PCB manufacturers. In current HLC PCB products, the ratio of total PCB value to CCL material value is around 2–2.5x. Under the new design, this ratio could rise to 3–3.5x, significantly increasing the product value for PCB manufacturers.

[X.sh9933 @xsh9933]

@Mimiwftt 能看懂的票，即使不能迅速脱离成本，哪怕再洗，也舒服。

看不太懂的，你说的对，快速脱离成本区很重要