good discussion i had with @follis_ here, also I discuss in detail:
- why my session times are what they are
- risk tolerance
- my daily routine
- marking charts in general
worth checking it out
$BTC
This bear market was precisely 29.6% faster than the previous one.
As cycles evolve, this bull market could follow the same pattern and play out faster than the previous one.
That would put the bull market top around 740 days from the bear market lows, leaving roughly 650 days until the macro top.
If the pattern holds, the next bull market top could occur around July/August 2028. ⏳
BTC just did something it hasn't done since the downtrend started last October.
3 different methods, one conclusion: my HTF bias is now bullish. And I'm already setting up the trade.
Full multi time frame breakdown + trade setup below 👇
If $BTC pulls back -20%
CT will lose its collective mind
Bears will start running victory laps
But it would be a normal bull market pullback
Exactly like we saw several times in 2023
Not saying it has to happen
But if it does, you should have a plan
If X, then Y
Nearly 10 years inside this channel, and it doesn't look like its failing anytime soon.
Time for $BTC to push towards the upper half of the channel again.
Higher.
$BTC
Every single major swing low of the last bull market had a bullish SFP.
These are great inflection points to build out additional exposure around.
$BTC
1 month later...
Mini range. 81–73K ✔️
Deviation. 72–68K ⏳
Expansion. 90–100K ⏳
If given the opportunity, any deviation below the range lows should be viewed as a buying opportunity. I will not short, and if this deviation comes, I will add to my swing long.
This range will eventually break to the upside, with the next expansion toward the 90–100K region. 🎲
The “Everything Is Priced In” chart.
It documents the biggest catalysts and news events throughout each cycle, and more importantly, what tends to happen shortly after them.
During every bear market, $BTC gets hit with endless bad news that fuels downside. But once the HTF trend starts shifting, that same negative news becomes what I call FUD through the bull cycle.
People become so conditioned to shorting bad news because throughout the bear cycle, negative headlines usually led to lower prices. But when BTC enters a bull cycle and begins doing the inverse, (absorbing the bad news and moving higher), they get caught completely off guard.
The headlines still create panic. People still expect lower. But instead of continuing the downtrend, BTC begins absorbing the fear and trending higher regardless.
There is usually one major catalyst that confirms the continuation. Last cycle, it was the ETF approval. This cycle, I believe it will be the Clarity Act.
We have already seen the early signs of it. The rate hike, Clarity Act speculation and then the failure of the Act were all treated as reasons for BTC to sell off further. Instead, BTC swept the lows and showed strength.
That is the difference between a bear market and a bull market. In a bear market, bad news pushes price lower. In a bull market, bad news is used to make people capitulate before price moves higher.
Now we have had the rate hike, the Clarity Act failure, and even World War 3 narratives trending. Yet BTC is starting to react positively to the fear rather than negatively.
To me, that resilience is one of the clearest signs that the trend has changed. I see no reason these catalysts should play out any differently to previous bull cycle FUD events.
Likes/RTs are appreciated, spent a while creating this.