Yaser Al Saffar

Macro Tourist / ex-macroeconomist

[Yaser Al Saffar @YaserSaffar]

@the_culturist_ “they live as though they are immortal” not because humans do not realize they are mortal but because, to them, building a legacy is a quasi-substitute for immortality. Even if mostly they pretend otherwise or claim altruistic intensions.

[Yaser Al Saffar @YaserSaffar]

@InTheAssembly This jump in price is even recorded for small volumes right?

[Yaser Al Saffar @YaserSaffar]

@RnaudBertrand Confucius also warned about over-reliance on others and vigilance towards security. He warned about its moral hazard.

[Yaser Al Saffar @YaserSaffar]

@Liathetrader @TimurNegru Much more

[Yaser Al Saffar @YaserSaffar]

@SantiagoAuFund It is likely to crowd out the current Eurodollar system, which is superior as it automatically drives offshore USD shortages. Not obvious stable-coins can do the same to comparable extent.

Also I don’t bet against Ray Dalio.

[Yaser Al Saffar @YaserSaffar]

@USronaldcarter Here enters religious fanatics heralding the apocalypse…

[Yaser Al Saffar @YaserSaffar]

@INArteCarloDoss Not sure what’s worse, him acting or not acting

[Yaser Al Saffar @YaserSaffar]

@handre And then communist China came along and performed the biggest economic miracle in history.

[Yaser Al Saffar @YaserSaffar]

@zerohedge Just saw 666 comments and wanted to change it

[Yaser Al Saffar @YaserSaffar]

@deerpointmacro @MMTmacrotrader Long real rates (low 2009-2020) are broadly a function of whatever’s affordable (function of debt and growth) and inflation risk premia (or other creditworthiness premia).

2020 - Fiscal dominance unleashes growth by escaping over-indebtedness (perceived). Long rates can rise.

[Yaser Al Saffar @YaserSaffar]

@deerpointmacro @MMTmacrotrader My take is different. Period 2009-2020 was characterized by over-indebtedness creating broad fiat devaluations (inflationary) which were more than offset by subdued real economies (disinflationary). This led to very aneamic GDP and productivity growth. 1/2

[Yaser Al Saffar @YaserSaffar]

@DanBusenbark @TaviCosta Yeah because there was a 3-1 stock split at the time I believe. That chart is of the close price whereas adjusted close is much closer to the actual return.

If the stock split didn’t happen EWZ would be 3x current price.

[Yaser Al Saffar @YaserSaffar]

@SantiagoAuFund I’d love to see this in number of gold ounces

[Yaser Al Saffar @YaserSaffar]

@Kathleen_Tyson_ @MacleodFinance How does the Fed influence short term rates without interest on reserves?

[Yaser Al Saffar @YaserSaffar]

@great_martis Moving into the arena of 3 tensions: USD shortages vs policy accommodation vs US idiosyncratic risk.

For gold to continue doing well we need quick large policy responses.

[Yaser Al Saffar @YaserSaffar]

@Globalflows Question is whether this is most likely temporary and can switch any time because it’s counter to the prevailing macro regime.

[Yaser Al Saffar @YaserSaffar]

@jtourzan You’re kidding right? Bridgewater doesn’t have to disclose its gold holdings. They are likely physically held through vaults in secure locations.

Also Dalio stepped down from running Bridgewater few months/years ago.

He did say he likes tech however.

[Yaser Al Saffar @YaserSaffar]

@SantiagoAuFund True of private sector but not public sector when central banks merge with their governments (even unofficially). There is never shortage of money, unless decided.

Also not true if the act of printing money and spending it creates enough inflation to reduce real liabilities.

[Yaser Al Saffar @YaserSaffar]

@DanBusenbark @TaviCosta What am I missing?

[Yaser Al Saffar @YaserSaffar]

@sdav1986 Currency devaluation is not inflation.

You can hide inflation with economic suppression.

But agreed, very hard to actually time.