CRE

[Jukan @jukan05]

I came across an interesting analysis today. It argued that while the unwinding of leveraged positions has contributed to the recent decline in memory stocks, the market is also beginning to price in the prospect of future supply expansion.

The argument goes as follows. Even if the memory shortage persists throughout 2027, research firms, sell-side analysts, and other prominent industry observers broadly agree that the supply-demand imbalance will begin to ease in 2028. Given that Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have announced massive fab expansion plans—and that other memory manufacturers are also racing to expand capacity—it seems reasonable to conclude that the market has already begun pricing in the increase in supply expected from 2028 onward.

There is a well-known rule of thumb when it comes to memory stocks: share prices tend to anticipate the peak in memory prices by about two quarters. But something I have long wondered—and perhaps deliberately tried to ignore—is whether that anticipation necessarily has to be limited to two quarters. Is it really impossible for the market to price in the peak three or even four quarters in advance?

I found this analysis extremely interesting. More importantly, I found it quite convincing.

[CRE @yenarcol]

How does capex fit into your model of internal/external CFs as a catalyzing event? especially for hyperscalers who still have ~strong “accruals of income”, used to have strong “traditional” external CFs (ie buybacks) but now replaced by capex, ie “literal” external CFs. Which is the strongest marginal flow…capex or the passive bid?

[Fitness Hub2.0 @_fitnesshub]

Most people blame their mattress.

[Warren Pies @WarrenPies]

Enjoyed talking bubbles and the market with @carlquintanilla and @LesliePicker

Thanks for the conversation

[Michael Green @profplum99]

Join me and the 2LiveCrew

[Baseball @mlbelites_]

The art of catching a baseball. This is a must watch ⚾️💯

[Baseball’s Greatest Moments @BBGreatMoments]

Tony Gwynn breaking down his favorite drill off the tee...

[Coach Steinman @coach_steinman]

Development isn’t found in routines that feel easy.. it’s built by consistently challenging yourself, embracing discomfort, and attacking the work that stretches your limits.

Drill work combined: creating and attacking space with hand eye coordination training using a tennis ball. The smaller, lighter object forces players to slow down, track the ball with intent, and focus on securing it cleanly with their hands.

The objective is simple: get your eyes behind the big bounce, secure it, then quickly transition and go attack the little.

@Kaelyn_Brown1 @gselby22 @MariaR2027 @CaseyGomez2026 @ncarovillano_26

[Michael Green @profplum99]

If you’re a young parent, or a grandparent, please consider this excellent list for the budding scientists in your home

[Michael Green @profplum99]

I’m going to @truflation’s upcoming Space. Will you join too? https://t.co/YDp74feJeu