Yair Ghitza

[Yair Ghitza @yghitza]

@chaboard2 @jon_m_rob @tbonier @carlosodio @Nate_Cohn @mjfrias sorry tough to do that, i had these numbers from a project back when we wrote that report. would be a pretty big lift to dig out the old databases, will respond if i end up doing it

[Yair Ghitza @yghitza]

@jon_m_rob @tbonier @carlosodio @Nate_Cohn @mjfrias Short answer is 80% in 2012, 76% in 2016, 74% in 2020. LOTS of state variation. Some fuzziness in these numbers cuz of matching, but we think that's maybe 1-2% or so. 2020 report described this in more detail, Figure 18. You might recognize the author 🙂 https://t.co/r64A6xFGsK

[Jonathan Robinson @jon_m_rob]

Interested in what _really_ happened in the 2022 election? Look no further, our team at @Catalist_US’s take combining our voter file, demographic modeling, large volumes of survey data, and precinct/county/CD election results is live!

https://t.co/O9qzxNknOv

[Yair Ghitza @yghitza]

Many thanks to the large team effort at @catalist_us putting this report together – along with the many reviewers who offered invaluable feedback.

[Yair Ghitza @yghitza]

What Happened in the 2022 midterms? Check out our report, based on validated vote history, large scale survey data, and precinct-level, voter-file-matched election results (where currently available). Some of my favorite graphs: 🧵 https://t.co/G39tZ767E2

[Catalist_US @Catalist_US]

Catalist just released our 2022 What Happened analysis, which examines how people voted in the most recent midterms based on updated state voter files.

Here’s what we found: 🧵

https://t.co/FZKGlDYN5f

[Yair Ghitza @yghitza]

Much more detail in the report, including analysis of different voting groups by race, education, gender, and more.

[Yair Ghitza @yghitza]

More of our election analysis! Now that finalized data is released, this is our look back at the Virginia 2021 election. Check out the thread and link to report here.

https://t.co/WFE1TgzV2L

[Catalist_US @Catalist_US]

Today we’re releasing our updated What Happened analysis for Virginia’s 2021 gubernatorial election.

This thread has some highlights and you can take a deeper dive at https://t.co/agD40d4tlK. 🧵 ⤵️

[Yair Ghitza @yghitza]

@MSmelkinsonPhD I guess the answer must be under reporting of cases. I didn’t realize it was that (apparently?) extreme.

[Yair Ghitza @yghitza]

@MSmelkinsonPhD Btw I would have guessed hosp rate among infected was far far lower, I guess it is if you take asymptotic into account? Pretty surprised if it truly is 50%, so I must be doing something wrong! Still my main point is the potential ambiguity of question wording in survey.