통기전(Tonggijun)

🚨Is it a BEAR MARKET or I am trippin? And if you're wondering why everything feels so broken right now, here's the actual story nobody wants to admit. October 10 was the turning point. Bitcoin hit $126k, everyone was euphoric, and then Trump dropped tariff bombs on China. What happened next wasn't just a correction - it was systematic destruction. $19 billion in liquidations. In one day. That's 9x larger than any liquidation event in crypto history. Over 1.6 million traders got wiped out as Bitcoin crashed from $126k to $104k in 15 minutes. But here's the thing - markets have crashed before and recovered. This time they didn't. And that tells you everything. The liquidity just never came back. Market makers got spooked and stayed spooked. Order books are still thin months later. BlackRock's IBIT, the flagship $BTC ETF, has bled $2.7B over six straight weeks. $ETH ETFs saw $224M leave in a single day mid-December. The only thing getting inflows? $XRP ETFs, because apparently that's where we are now. Meanwhile, institutional money is running for the exits. Not panic selling - worse. Methodical withdrawal. The basis trade unwind, position closures, risk-off rotation. These aren't retail traders capitulating. This is smart money saying "not right now." And the project quality? Absolutely abysmal. Nearly 99% are pump-and-dump schemes. We saw over $3 billion in scams just in the first half of 2025. The meme coin market is down 65% overall, with tons of coins that hit $1B+ MCap sitting at -99%. When the barrier to launch a token is under $1, you don't get innovation. You get a scam factory. The Fear and Greed Index is sitting at 16. Extreme fear. Google searches for "Bitcoin bear market" just hit five-year highs - higher than the 2021 crash, higher than the 2022 bear. Total market cap dropped from $4.3 trillion to under $3 trillion. That's $1.4 trillion destroyed. And the really concerning part? Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq is at 46%. It's acting like a tech stock, not digital gold. When the Fed stays hawkish and rates stay high, risk assets get crushed. That includes crypto now. Even Michael Saylor had to pivot. Strategy announced a $1.44 billion cash reserve and quietly stopped assuming Bitcoin would hit $150k this year. When the most bullish guy in the room starts hedging, pay attention. Some people will tell you this is just a mid-cycle correction because we had the halving in April 2024. Maybe. But mid-cycle corrections don't usually come with institutional flight, collapsing liquidity, and 99% of new projects being outright scams. The truth is simple. October 10 didn't just crash prices - it broke market structure. And with stablecoin inflows down 50%, market makers still absent, and retail trust shattered by endless scams, there's no obvious catalyst for recovery. Not FUD. Just the state of things right now.

DeFi_Hanzo's tweet photo. 🚨Is it a BEAR MARKET or I am trippin?

And if you're wondering why everything feels so broken right now, here's the actual story nobody wants to admit.

October 10 was the turning point.

Bitcoin hit $126k, everyone was euphoric, and then Trump dropped tariff bombs on China.

What happened next wasn't just a correction - it was systematic destruction.

$19 billion in liquidations. In one day. That's 9x larger than any liquidation event in crypto history.

Over 1.6 million traders got wiped out as Bitcoin crashed from $126k to $104k in 15 minutes.

But here's the thing - markets have crashed before and recovered.

This time they didn't. And that tells you everything.

The liquidity just never came back.

Market makers got spooked and stayed spooked. Order books are still thin months later.

BlackRock's IBIT, the flagship $BTC ETF, has bled $2.7B over six straight weeks. $ETH ETFs saw $224M leave in a single day mid-December.

The only thing getting inflows? $XRP ETFs, because apparently that's where we are now.

Meanwhile, institutional money is running for the exits. Not panic selling - worse. Methodical withdrawal.

The basis trade unwind, position closures, risk-off rotation.

These aren't retail traders capitulating. This is smart money saying "not right now."

And the project quality? Absolutely abysmal.

Nearly 99% are pump-and-dump schemes.

We saw over $3 billion in scams just in the first half of 2025.

The meme coin market is down 65% overall, with tons of coins that hit $1B+ MCap sitting at -99%.

When the barrier to launch a token is under $1, you don't get innovation. You get a scam factory.

The Fear and Greed Index is sitting at 16. Extreme fear.

Google searches for "Bitcoin bear market" just hit five-year highs - higher than the 2021 crash, higher than the 2022 bear.

Total market cap dropped from $4.3 trillion to under $3 trillion. That's $1.4 trillion destroyed.

And the really concerning part?

Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq is at 46%. It's acting like a tech stock, not digital gold.

When the Fed stays hawkish and rates stay high, risk assets get crushed. That includes crypto now.

Even Michael Saylor had to pivot.

Strategy announced a $1.44 billion cash reserve and quietly stopped assuming Bitcoin would hit $150k this year.

When the most bullish guy in the room starts hedging, pay attention.

Some people will tell you this is just a mid-cycle correction because we had the halving in April 2024. Maybe.

But mid-cycle corrections don't usually come with institutional flight, collapsing liquidity, and 99% of new projects being outright scams.

The truth is simple.

October 10 didn't just crash prices - it broke market structure.

And with stablecoin inflows down 50%, market makers still absent, and retail trust shattered by endless scams, there's no obvious catalyst for recovery.

Not FUD. Just the state of things right now.

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통기전(Tonggijun) @yjsim2004

7 months ago

@great_martis 45000

Who to follow

𝙰𝚣𝚒𝚣

@Azizdkran

bi şey yazmaya gerek yok bir gün ölücez zaten

24 | swe | athlete | mit'23

yjsim2004 retweeted

King of the Charts - The Michael Burry of Bitcoin

@King0ftheCharts

7 months ago

. The Bitcoin Experts and Moonboys are so Delusional, they're acting Like a Bunch of CRAZY KAREN'S, calling every dip a bottom. They continue to suffer from Permabull Moonboy Syndrome (PMS). The BTC Crash has resumed as I predicted. The Moonboys heads are about to explode after this next leg down. BTC video shortly. $BTC #BTC #BTCNews #Bitcoin $BTCUSD #BTCUSD #TomLee #CryptoNews #crypto #trump #ALTSEASON $BTC_F $NVDA $AAPL $MARA $MSTR #BitcoinCrash $NVDA $IBIT #ETH $ETH #Ethereum @saylor

King0ftheCharts's tweet photo. .
The Bitcoin Experts and Moonboys are so Delusional, they're acting Like a Bunch of CRAZY KAREN'S, calling every dip a bottom. They continue to suffer from Permabull Moonboy Syndrome (PMS). The BTC Crash has resumed as I predicted. The Moonboys heads are about to explode after this next leg down.

BTC video shortly.

$BTC #BTC #BTCNews #Bitcoin $BTCUSD #BTCUSD #TomLee #CryptoNews #crypto #trump #ALTSEASON $BTC_F $NVDA $AAPL $MARA $MSTR #BitcoinCrash $NVDA $IBIT #ETH $ETH #Ethereum @saylor

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통기전(Tonggijun) @yjsim2004

7 months ago

45000

통기전(Tonggijun) @yjsim2004

7 months ago

통기전(Tonggijun) @yjsim2004

7 months ago

그런데 하락 싸이클이라면. 아직 시간이 너무 많이 남았잖아 ? 안그래 ?

통기전(Tonggijun) @yjsim2004

7 months ago

설마 ?

통기전(Tonggijun) @yjsim2004

7 months ago

요기서 세력들이 사나?

통기전(Tonggijun) @yjsim2004

7 months ago

@CryptoNobler 아버지에게 혼난다 ㅋㅋ

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yjsim2004 retweeted

Mr. Wall Street

@mrofwallstreet

7 months ago

#Bitcoin - Full Market Breakdown In Depth Technical and Psychological Analysis There seems to be some confusion about my current position in the market so I am making this post to clarify my stance on Bitcoin both in the short term, mid term and long term. If you have been following me for a while you know that since the beginning of 2025 I have been saying the economy is starting to break down and the Fed needed to start cutting rates immediately to avoid a recession later this year. It was crystal clear that the economy needed easing early in the year. Job data kept worsening while CPI kept falling even though official reports showed rising inflation which was a complete lie. Because of tariffs the reported numbers were much higher than reality and the real inflation numbers were much lower. Economy was breaking down yet Fed decided to ignore. Easing the economy means adding liquidity to the markets, and this could come in two forms. The first way and most used one is, Fed lowers the interest rate, money gets cheaper, investors borrow more money and liquidity in the markets consequently rises. The second way, is a more aggressive one and its usually used only when interest rates are at 0% or very near and economy needs even more easing. That is the QE (Quantitative Easing), where Fed goes directly to the markets and buys MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) or US Treasury Bonds, adding liquidity to the market directly. Fed should have cut interest rates at the beginning of the year. By doing so the economy would have received the easing it needed, the market would have resumed its upward trend, and both inflation and unemployment would have returned to healthier levels. And only after that the Fed would decide whether to tighten the economy by raising rates or activate QE after understanding whether or not economy was growing way too fast. But we know this was not what happened. Fed decided to ignore the only reality. They decided to ignore the fact that unemployment data was getting worse as time passed, and decided to blame the bad unemployment on external political factors such as emigration. They also decided to ignore the fact that CPI was being stated much higher than the real numbers because of tariffs, and during all the time they used both of this argument as excuse to not cut the interest rates as they should have been cut. As of today Fed still ignores the fact that CPI is being overstated because of tariffs, but they already acknowledge that unemployment data is starting to become concerning and the excuses that were previously used such as emigration are nowhere to be heard, yet again proving that Fed Mafia only acts accordingly to the needs of the people above them and not to the needs of economy. Even knowing that Fed is slowly starting to recognize the bad shape of economy its already too late to take action. Even if they drastically cut the interest rates here it would still take time for this monetary policy to take effect in the economy. Fed is too late! Meaning the only real solution to save the bear market thats coming ahead is a huge liquidity injection in the order of trillions and not in the order of few billions. So, as long as this doesn’t happen, markets will continue to correct until fair value prices that stand way lower in comparison to this levels. Everyone knows how bullish I was on Bitcoin months ago, until early November where I flipped bearish in the short term as well as the mid term, yet many people refuse to acknowledge whats happening and want to keep being bullish even when all the bullish arguments are gone and the only thing left for bulls is hope. The bullish structure that served Bitcoin broke the same day weekly candle closed bellow EMA50 Weekly, MACD Monthly crossed, and RSI bearish divergence started to play out. All this key indicators that are used to understand where Bitcoin stands in the cycle are showing the start of bear market. We also saw REPO (Standard Repo) market, as well as SRF (Standing Repo Facility) market operations being heavily abused. The AI stocks that are the bone structure of American economy such as $NVDA, $PLTR, $AMD, and many others, starting to fall. All of which Premium shorted! (Join Premium Here: https://t.co/Be1Ub3pdG5) The BOJ (Bank of Japan) is set to increase interest rates signalizing yet another wave of the Japanese carry trade unwind. And last but not least, a factor that I see very few people speaking about, which is the many market makers institutions who went bankrupted in the 10/10 crash, and are now waiting for prices to meet EMA50 Weekly to liquidate tens or hundreds of billions in spot assets. There is nothing to be bullish about. The bullish arguments such as “QT ended and QE will now start” make no sense and are easily dismissed when you understand that from 2014 until 2017 the Fed kept its balance sheet neutral and only made a few small occasional purchases. The same thing is happening now. The Fed announced a $40bn purchase in the last FOMC and the low IQs are screaming already that is the start of QE. It's not the start of QE! It is just a single operation. If you still decide to stay bullish in the in the mid term after all of this, I suggest you start preparing to apologize to yourself one year from now. I understand the macro bullishness on Bitcoin. At the end of the day Bitcoin is the single greatest store of value ever created in the history of human kind, because it is the only asset with a truly limited supply and therefore its guaranteed to keep rising as long as the Fed keeps printing money. Still the macro bullishness does not justify being irrationally bullish on short term and on mid term. You can ignore reality but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality, and I promise you now that in one year, you will wish to have shorted the retested of the 100-125k range thats yet to come, just to use the same cash to buy Bitcoin again in the 54-60k region and double your holding without any capital injection. TO MAKE CRYSTAL CLEAR: I am expecting a retest on the EMA50 Weekly (Currently at 100k) to happen before the next big leg down. I have now orders to short in the 98-104k region, and I am expecting the next target to come to be 68-74k, with the final target in Q4 of 2026 to be 54-60k. Join Premium for more: https://t.co/Be1Ub3pdG5

mrofwallstreet's tweet photo. #Bitcoin - Full Market Breakdown

In Depth Technical and Psychological Analysis

There seems to be some confusion about my current position in the market so I am making this post to clarify my stance on Bitcoin both in the short term, mid term and long term.

If you have been following me for a while you know that since the beginning of 2025 I have been saying the economy is starting to break down and the Fed needed to start cutting rates immediately to avoid a recession later this year. It was crystal clear that the economy needed easing early in the year. Job data kept worsening while CPI kept falling even though official reports showed rising inflation which was a complete lie. Because of tariffs the reported numbers were much higher than reality and the real inflation numbers were much lower. Economy was breaking down yet Fed decided to ignore.

Easing the economy means adding liquidity to the markets, and this could come in two forms. The first way and most used one is, Fed lowers the interest rate, money gets cheaper, investors borrow more money and liquidity in the markets consequently rises. The second way, is a more aggressive one and its usually used only when interest rates are at 0% or very near and economy needs even more easing. That is the QE (Quantitative Easing), where Fed goes directly to the markets and buys MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) or US Treasury Bonds, adding liquidity to the market directly.

Fed should have cut interest rates at the beginning of the year. By doing so the economy would have received the easing it needed, the market would have resumed its upward trend, and both inflation and unemployment would have returned to healthier levels. And only after that the Fed would decide whether to tighten the economy by raising rates or activate QE after understanding whether or not economy was growing way too fast.

But we know this was not what happened. Fed decided to ignore the only reality. They decided to ignore the fact that unemployment data was getting worse as time passed, and decided to blame the bad unemployment on external political factors such as emigration. They also decided to ignore the fact that CPI was being stated much higher than the real numbers because of tariffs, and during all the time they used both of this argument as excuse to not cut the interest rates as they should have been cut.

As of today Fed still ignores the fact that CPI is being overstated because of tariffs, but they already acknowledge that unemployment data is starting to become concerning and the excuses that were previously used such as emigration are nowhere to be heard, yet again proving that Fed Mafia only acts accordingly to the needs of the people above them and not to the needs of economy. Even knowing that Fed is slowly starting to recognize the bad shape of economy its already too late to take action. Even if they drastically cut the interest rates here it would still take time for this monetary policy to take effect in the economy. Fed is too late! Meaning the only real solution to save the bear market thats coming ahead is a huge liquidity injection in the order of trillions and not in the order of few billions. So, as long as this doesn’t happen, markets will continue to correct until fair value prices that stand way lower in comparison to this levels.

Everyone knows how bullish I was on Bitcoin months ago, until early November where I flipped bearish in the short term as well as the mid term, yet many people refuse to acknowledge whats happening and want to keep being bullish even when all the bullish arguments are gone and the only thing left for bulls is hope. The bullish structure that served Bitcoin broke the same day weekly candle closed bellow EMA50 Weekly, MACD Monthly crossed, and RSI bearish divergence started to play out. All this key indicators that are used to understand where Bitcoin stands in the cycle are showing the start of bear market. We also saw REPO (Standard Repo) market, as well as SRF (Standing Repo Facility) market operations being heavily abused. The AI stocks that are the bone structure of American economy such as $NVDA, $PLTR, $AMD, and many others, starting to fall. All of which Premium shorted! (Join Premium Here: https://t.co/Be1Ub3pdG5) The BOJ (Bank of Japan) is set to increase interest rates signalizing yet another wave of the Japanese carry trade unwind. And last but not least, a factor that I see very few people speaking about, which is the many market makers institutions who went bankrupted in the 10/10 crash, and are now waiting for prices to meet EMA50 Weekly to liquidate tens or hundreds of billions in spot assets.

There is nothing to be bullish about. The bullish arguments such as “QT ended and QE will now start” make no sense and are easily dismissed when you understand that from 2014 until 2017 the Fed kept its balance sheet neutral and only made a few small occasional purchases. The same thing is happening now. The Fed announced a $40bn purchase in the last FOMC and the low IQs are screaming already that is the start of QE. It's not the start of QE! It is just a single operation.

If you still decide to stay bullish in the in the mid term after all of this, I suggest you start preparing to apologize to yourself one year from now. I understand the macro bullishness on Bitcoin. At the end of the day Bitcoin is the single greatest store of value ever created in the history of human kind, because it is the only asset with a truly limited supply and therefore its guaranteed to keep rising as long as the Fed keeps printing money. Still the macro bullishness does not justify being irrationally bullish on short term and on mid term. You can ignore reality but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality, and I promise you now that in one year, you will wish to have shorted the retested of the 100-125k range thats yet to come, just to use the same cash to buy Bitcoin again in the 54-60k region and double your holding without any capital injection.

TO MAKE CRYSTAL CLEAR:

I am expecting a retest on the EMA50 Weekly (Currently at 100k) to happen before the next big leg down. I have now orders to short in the 98-104k region, and I am expecting the next target to come to be 68-74k, with the final target in Q4 of 2026 to be 54-60k.

Join Premium for more: https://t.co/Be1Ub3pdG5

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yjsim2004 retweeted

Hanzo ㊗️

@DeFi_Hanzo

7 months ago

🚨 BTC WILL CRASH ON DEC 19 The crypto market is sleeping on the Bank of Japan—and that's a mistake. On December 19th, the BoJ is widely expected to raise interest rates again. Most traders see this as just another central bank meeting. But here's what they're missing: Japan holds over $1.1 trillion in U.S. Treasuries, making them America's largest foreign creditor. When the BoJ adjusts rates, it doesn't just affect the yen. It ripples through global dollar liquidity, Treasury yields, and risk assets like Bitcoin. The pattern is brutal and consistent: March 2024 hike → $BTC dropped ~23% July 2024 hike → $BTC dropped ~26% January 2025 hike $BTC dropped → ~31% Each time the BoJ has tightened, we've seen violent deleveraging across crypto markets within days. Why does this happen? When Japan raises rates, the yen carry trade unwinds. For years, traders borrowed cheap yen to buy higher-yielding assets (including crypto). Rate hikes reverse this flow instantly, forcing liquidations and margin calls across the board. Add to this: > Bitcoin is already down from recent highs > Leverage in the system remains elevated > Retail sentiment has collapsed (on-chain metrics show capitulation) The current setup looks eerily similar to previous BoJ-triggered drawdowns. Market positioning suggests most traders are either ignoring this catalyst entirely or hoping "this time is different." History says otherwise. The BoJ moves markets, whether crypto Twitter is paying attention or not. December 19th isn't just another date. It's a liquidity event.

DeFi_Hanzo's tweet photo. 🚨 BTC WILL CRASH ON DEC 19

The crypto market is sleeping on the Bank of Japan—and that's a mistake.
On December 19th, the BoJ is widely expected to raise interest rates again. Most traders see this as just another central bank meeting.

But here's what they're missing:

Japan holds over $1.1 trillion in U.S. Treasuries, making them America's largest foreign creditor.

When the BoJ adjusts rates, it doesn't just affect the yen. It ripples through global dollar liquidity, Treasury yields, and risk assets like Bitcoin.

The pattern is brutal and consistent:

March 2024 hike → $BTC dropped ~23%
July 2024 hike → $BTC dropped ~26%
January 2025 hike $BTC dropped → ~31%

Each time the BoJ has tightened, we've seen violent deleveraging across crypto markets within days.

Why does this happen?

When Japan raises rates, the yen carry trade unwinds.

For years, traders borrowed cheap yen to buy higher-yielding assets (including crypto).

Rate hikes reverse this flow instantly, forcing liquidations and margin calls across the board.

Add to this:

> Bitcoin is already down from recent highs
> Leverage in the system remains elevated
> Retail sentiment has collapsed (on-chain metrics show capitulation)

The current setup looks eerily similar to previous BoJ-triggered drawdowns.

Market positioning suggests most traders are either ignoring this catalyst entirely or hoping "this time is different."

History says otherwise. The BoJ moves markets, whether crypto Twitter is paying attention or not.

December 19th isn't just another date. It's a liquidity event.

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yjsim2004 retweeted

Northstar

@NorthstarCharts

7 months ago

Bitcoin - As I forecast back in 2024, the capital rotation process has destroyed its performance in 2025 👇

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yjsim2004 retweeted

DANNY

@Danny_Crypton

7 months ago

BITCOIN JUST TRIGGERED A RARE BOTTOM SIGNAL Every Death Cross has marked major reversals. This is the zone that traps everyone. Next targets: 94K → 126K → 120K

Danny_Crypton's tweet photo. BITCOIN JUST TRIGGERED A RARE BOTTOM SIGNAL

Every Death Cross has marked major reversals.

This is the zone that traps everyone.

Next targets: 94K → 126K → 120K https://t.co/3ffpSvi5Lq

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yjsim2004 retweeted

Crypto Tice

@CryptoTice_

7 months ago

BITCOIN IS AT THE DECISION ZONE. Accumulation is behind us. Volatility is peaking. Price is being pressured, not trending. This is where reactions matter: Hold → strength builds. Lose → continuation lower first. History shows this is where positioning happens. Not where clarity exists. Next move decides everything.

CryptoTice_'s tweet photo. BITCOIN IS AT THE DECISION ZONE.

Accumulation is behind us.
Volatility is peaking.
Price is being pressured, not trending.

This is where reactions matter:
Hold → strength builds.
Lose → continuation lower first.

History shows this is where positioning happens.
Not where clarity exists.

Next move decides everything.

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yjsim2004 retweeted

Merlijn The Trader

@MerlijnTrader

7 months ago

BITCOIN ENTERED THE DANGER ZONE. Top signals are stacking: - RSI lost long-term support - Macro trendline under pressure - Structure mirrors the 2021 reversal But smart money doesn’t panic here. They accumulate. They prepare. Weak hands get shaken. Strong hands get rich.

MerlijnTrader's tweet photo. BITCOIN ENTERED THE DANGER ZONE.

Top signals are stacking:

- RSI lost long-term support
- Macro trendline under pressure
- Structure mirrors the 2021 reversal

But smart money doesn’t panic here.
They accumulate.
They prepare.

Weak hands get shaken.
Strong hands get rich. https://t.co/85lnFuoH4D

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yjsim2004 retweeted

CRYPFLOW

@_Crypflow_

7 months ago

$BTC (1D) - nearing make or break Quiet week, so I stepped back a bit to reset. BTC is now approaching a key decision point after being rejected again by the downtrend from the ATH. Price is compressing inside the parallel channel and moving closer to the apex. If this channel breaks, the path becomes clearer: - Loss of the channel → retest of S1 - Failure there → potential shakeout toward S2 before the next rally begins What stands out is how familiar this looks to what we saw at the beginning of the year. Price action, RSI, and Stochastic RSI are very similar to January 2025, right before BTC made one final leg lower. Be mentally prepared for that scenario. The only way BTC avoids this downside move is a clean break above the downtrend, followed by acceptance and confirmation as support. Until then, we have to be patient and wait for confirmation.

_Crypflow_'s tweet photo. $BTC (1D) - nearing make or break

Quiet week, so I stepped back a bit to reset.

BTC is now approaching a key decision point after being rejected again by the downtrend from the ATH. Price is compressing inside the parallel channel and moving closer to the apex.

If this channel breaks, the path becomes clearer:
- Loss of the channel → retest of S1
- Failure there → potential shakeout toward S2 before the next rally begins

What stands out is how familiar this looks to what we saw at the beginning of the year.
Price action, RSI, and Stochastic RSI are very similar to January 2025, right before BTC made one final leg lower.

Be mentally prepared for that scenario.

The only way BTC avoids this downside move is a clean break above the downtrend, followed by acceptance and confirmation as support.

Until then, we have to be patient and wait for confirmation.

yjsim2004 retweeted

ᴛʀᴀᴄᴇʀ

@DeFiTracer

7 months ago

2021 and 2025 look similar - Double tops - Support zones - And bounce from the same level This pattern always plays in the same way Get ready for the next big move...