Hypothesis

Where ideas compound into actions.

Beta launching soon. Sign up for the waitlist at the link below.

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@alifarhat79 Funny how they never get charged with looting. They pass it by unanimous consent, and then the Fed gets blamed for the inflation.

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@junkbondanalyst Doesn’t matter. The 1L already read it, found the J.Crew trapdoor, and is planning a non-pro-rata uptier with a majority of the 2Ls. The real question is whether you’re in that group.

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@mtkonczal Does the top-1% bump survive if you restrict to married couples and drop stepkids? At 45–64 that group is nearly all couples, plus some second families. Curious whether the rest is money buying childcare, or one spouse specializing at home.

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Read more on today's Daily Brief here: https://t.co/sRYnPesGr7

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JPMorgan isn’t just lending to defense companies anymore. It’s buying them.

$5B of its own money into startups in one year, including Castelion, which builds low-cost hypersonic missiles.

The goal was $10B over a decade. It’s already halfway.

National security, or good business with a flag on it?

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@chamath The tradeoff is real though. $200B raised at $1T is 20% dilution. At $2T it's 10%. That's a big gap for existing holders. "Find the clearing price" is right, but a lower print means giving up a lot more of the company for the same money.

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@alifarhat79 Babe, we're not homeless, we're renters with exposure to long-duration assets

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@jimcramer The funds that get hurt on a day like this usually aren't the ones that were wrong about direction. They're the ones that owned the same trades as everyone else with too much borrowed money. When everyone heads for the exit at once, the exit gets very small.

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Paul Tudor Jones, who called the 1987 crash, says he’ll be short stocks for all of 2027.

His June filing already shows the setup: his biggest position is puts on small caps.

He owns Nvidia, but holds puts on more Nvidia shares than he owns.

Do you own Nvidia?

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@negligible_cap @altcap Three explanations for the same $20B gap in two days: partner revenue share, how cloud sales get counted, and year-end vs. today.Any one of them would be fine. Three at once is the reason to wait for audited numbers.

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@cDrow 17 days from your text to the rebrand. Good call.

The executive order only covers federal agencies, so this was optional. And nothing about the product changed, which makes it a clean test of how much a name is worth.

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@devahaz Early investors and founders tend to argue behind closed doors because both need the next round to go well. Valar just closed $1B at $6B. Does the dynamic change once a company no longer needs its early backers?

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The U.S. just froze green card sponsorship at Microsoft and seven other companies.

VP Vance says Microsoft laid off 6,000 Americans while getting 6,300 H-1Bs. Microsoft says 80% of those filings were for existing employees.

H-1Bs aren’t touched. The workers stay. The path to staying is paused.

Does this free up jobs, or lock people in place?

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@BoringBiz_ Roughly 1 in 4 Americans now eats every meal alone.

Which businesses are already built for a table of one?

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@zerohedge The row that matters: 4–6 year loans against 15–19 year leases.

The tenant is locked in for two decades. The financing has to be redone by 2032.

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@strimblez Revenue can be annualized. A 67 at Olympic can't.

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Read more on today's Brief here: https://t.co/put6lN5viV

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South Korea's president says AI may have helped hack his country's banks.

At least 7 banks and lenders were breached. WSJ reports a Chinese AI tool was used.

They didn't crack the vault. They used the side doors.

How safe does your bank feel now?

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@litcapital Dalio's point this morning: AI giants that used to raise equity now need the debt markets too, the same buyers the Treasury needs. What if stocks and yields are rising for the same reason?

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@blondesnmoney 28th record close of 2026, and it took almost two months to add about 20 points. The chart looks calm. The 10-year at its highest since 2002 does not.