Zan

Small cap investor focused on commodities. The important trait is not how much you know, but how much you think you know - Nassim Taleb

[🏴‍☠️ @calvinfroedge]

Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose

I went against the man and he gave me a beating to remember

I wasn't wrong, I was just wrong to try

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

So beautiful.

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

Total crude draw of 15.2 million bbls, the 4th largest crude draw in history.

Commercial crude draw of 7.2 million bbls.

[Zan @zanmantate]

@shareGBP Some decent looking resources there, but an out of date PFS, and 5 years till production is too much to accept for me.

[Sam Kovacs @SamKovX]

The oil market is so, so F*CKED.

1. Let's start with the obvious: Hormuz very shut, barrels have not been flowing.

2. The cavalry isn't coming: US rig count is effectively flat. Nobody is rushing to add supply, as the market narrative remains: the war ends soon.

3. Cushing is within a stone throw of being empty. 2 numbers matter at Cushing 70mb (full) and 20mb (empty). When it hit 70 in 2020, WTI went negative. When it will hit 20 in June, WTI will skyrocket. I wrote and spoke about this yesterday.

4. Managed money is barely long. There is no speculative money propping up the price of oil right now. When it piles in, it will add fuel to the fire.

@gnoble79

[Derrick Dao @derrick_dao]

Platinum has just run a fourth straight year of supply deficit, and the three companies that mine 70% of the world's supply answered by cutting thousands of jobs and paying dividends rather than building a single new mine. The metal still trades at 40 cents on the gold dollar.x

[Zan @zanmantate]

Same headline every Friday since April.

No source, no accountability, no credibility.

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

IRAN INFORMED PAKISTAN OF ITS ACCEPTANCE TO TRANSFER PART OF ITS URANIUM TO A THIRD COUNTRY IT AGREES UPON

[Dr. Ilia Bouchouev @IliaBouchouev]

My take on why oil futures are still sub $100 despite the scale of physical disruptions from the eyes of a paper trader as nicely summarized by @gulf_intel.

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

Iran is going to keep dragging ass. It won’t relent on the two biggest things:

- Uranium enrichment
- Strait of Hormuz

Trump’s options are very limited here. Escalate or total capitulation.

And everyday that Iran can drag this on, we keep losing oil inventories.

[Zan @zanmantate]

No way Iran agrees to this. US either needs to face the reality of the diplomatic corner they’ve backed themselves into, or restart military efforts.

No good options for the US. The inevitable conclusion of a poorly thought out strategy

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

U.S. Secretary of War: The Strait of Hormuz will be open without fees and accessible to all, and this is how it should be.

[Zan @zanmantate]

@Rory_Johnston @HFI_Research Great - Thanks for the reply.

While I’m here a big thanks to both you and separately, @HFI_Research, for cutting through the noise, in a very noisy environment! Factual, consumable and freely distributed information - X and beyond are fortunate to have you both. All the best

[Zan @zanmantate]

3. Continue negotiations in blind hope that unreconcilable sides can reconcile. Attempt benign MOUs which agree none of the above issues in an attempt to show false progress. Jawbone the market in the meantime.

3 works until it doesn’t. Then it’s 1 or 2. That is inevitable.

[Zan @zanmantate]

Just for my own record:

- Control of the strait
- Removing Iranian sanctions and releasing frozen funds
- The right to nuclear material and enrichment
- Signing of the Abraham Accords
- Reparations for war damages
- Peace in Lebanon

No consensus. Yet peace deal imminent?

[Zan @zanmantate]

My take on the US options:

1. Resume bombing Iran - an unacceptable cost both directly to the US and to gulf countries (energy infrastructure)
2. Retreat from the region - a total and complete policy failure and unacceptable relinquishing of control in the region.

[Art Berman @aeberman12]

Iran's negotiating position has never been stronger in 47 years, says @CommodMkt

Its leverage compounds every day bc oil inventories continue to drop

Europe will be at tank bottom in a month

The US will in July

If Hormuz opened tomorrow, it would take 6 months before things stopped getting worse

#Hormuz #oil #energy #Iran #geopolitics #markets #shipping #economy #inflation #SPR

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

Got it. So everything…

[Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش @citrinowicz]

Trump is approaching a decision point: either a principles-based agreement that enables the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the siege, ending the war, and postponing nuclear negotiations for a month or a return to war, which may achieve certain tactical goals but is highly unlikely to shift the current Iranian leadership from its position.

Every threat and every reference by Trump to the destruction of Iran only reinforces the conviction in Tehran that discussing the nuclear issue before receiving hard guarantees on ending the war and reopening Hormuz would be a strategic mistake.

In the past, the Iranian leadership’s red line centered on limits to the nuclear program. Today, after what Iran views as proof of resilience during the war, the priority has changed: first stabilize the Strait of Hormuz and secure meaningful economic guarantees. Only then would Tehran even consider entering serious nuclear talks.

This is the outcome of a failed war strategy: instead of forcing concessions on the nuclear file, the conflict elevated Iran’s leverage and pushed the nuclear issue further down the negotiating agenda.

#IranWar‌

[Jam4U @Jam4u_75]

#THS absolutely smashed it - look at the numbers below!!!

https://t.co/Cl9nTz3uHq

[Share Money @shareGBP]

#THS interim results today are absolutely outstanding with further earning growth in H2 likely with weighted production in second half of year.

This is a new article about the Company as is probably the best rounded summary of the potential I've read.👇

https://t.co/l6O7Cs4lZu