nestalk

The big money is not in the buying or selling but in the waiting. el presente es la forma de toda vida.

[shenxiao @Shenxiao123971]

社保局绝对不会主动告诉你的事🤫
社保窗口不会主动通知你，下面这些事都得自己亲自去办！牢记这15条要点，关键时候能派上大用场。👆

1、丧葬补助与抚恤金不会自动到账，家属须携带死亡证明前往社保经办机构办理手续后方可领取
2、养老金账户中尚未领完的余额可由继承人继承，但需在30日内完成继承公证，逾期资金将被收归国有
3、医保报销待遇虽已终止，但缴费满15年的家属可申领一次性医疗补助金，最高可达3万元
4、家属可全额提取公积金账户内资金，但须在一年内办理完毕，逾期账户将被冻结
5、养老保险缴费未满15年的，家属可申请退还个人账户储存额，通常可退回数万元

6、社保卡余额需携带死亡证明及身份证前往银行支取，部分银行还要求提供继承公证书
7、工伤补贴、高龄津贴等待遇不会自动停发，家属应主动申报，多领款项将被追回
8、自去世当月起，个税申报须携带死亡证明到税务机关办理免税，否则可能被多扣税款
9、曾在异地参保的，养老账户可转移至继承人名下，需前往参保地社保机构办理
10、逝者生前欠缴的社保费将从遗产中扣除，未补缴将影响丧葬费的发放

11、养老保险个人账户资金（含单位缴费部分）均可继承，许多人不知可领取双份款项
12、未结清的公积金贷款须继续按期偿还，断供将影响子女考公及贷款
13、失业金账户中剩余资金可申领，持劳动关系证明即可领取最后一笔款项
14、全部手续须在三个月内办结，逾期办理至少将损失5至8万元补贴
15、如果是工伤死亡，记得申领工亡补助金，现在标准是人均工资的20倍

[Bloomberg @business]

The downturn gripping London’s priciest properties is on course to cross a once unthinkable threshold https://t.co/iMRpKGnk2V

[Rita Liou @RitaLiou65]

到底為什麼愛生氣？

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

This is a requirement.

Being considerate means allowing other people to mostly do what they want, so long as it is consistent with our principles, policies, and the law. It also means being willing to put others ahead of your own desires. If the people on both sides of an argument approach their disagreements in this way, we will have many fewer disputes about who is offending whom. #principleoftheday

[R0bb @Red_Sun54]

@fergalpha Don't forget shrinkflation is also smoke and mirrors. Every time I buy orange juice the containers are 4 oz smaller but the same price. Used to be 64 Oz, then 58, then 52, then 48, now they're 42 Oz.

[nestalk @zestag]

@KongYiGC 这种人居然标榜博士，你什么都不懂，你怎么确定找的人是合适的人，专业的人做专业的事，是一句行业黑话，找别人人家目的是赚钱，不是让你赚钱！

[nestalk @zestag]

@zzwinwinwin 现在中银香港非常难客户了。没有在港实际需求基本不给办，上周过去的

[Cullen Roche @cullenroche]

Do we have a regime of "fiscal dominance" today? Let's look at the evidence.

First, 2022 calls this into question. Inflation hit 9% and after the Fed raised rates it fell as low as 2.3%. Hiking clearly didn't add to inflation then, but the term appears to have survived because inflation remained a little stickier than the Fed expected.

So, has the story changed? Is the cumulative effect of interest payments adding significantly to aggregate demand? $1.3T in annual interest sounds huge. The math says otherwise.

Strip out the interest the government pays its own trust funds and you're at about $1.15T. Roughly 30% of that goes to foreigners and 15% to the Fed. So about 55% goes to domestic holders, and much of that is banks, funds, pensions and wealthy investors who don't spend much of it.

The research on stimulus checks finds people spend about 22 to 35 cents of each dollar, and that's for small windfalls that mostly hit households who need the cash. Interest income goes to people who don't. It goes mostly to people like me and I don't spend one single cent of the interest income I get in my brokerage account from things like Tbills. But let's be generous and assume every domestic holder spends 35%. That's about 19% of total interest, or roughly $220B of spending.

Here's where the story falls apart. Inflation isn't about levels. It's about changes. Interest payments rose about $110B this year. At that same generous rate, that's about $21B of new demand in a $31T economy. That is 0.07% of GDP.

That's the aggregate demand side of the equation and it's BEFORE counting the drag higher rates put on borrowing, real estate, etc. If you back out that effect the net impact of higher rates is very clearly negative in this sort of environment. Just imagine for a second how high inflation would be if rates were 0% and everyone was refinancing and buying homes. Inflation would be on fire in that environment because private residential investment would be booming and shelter prices would be surging again.

So we aren't in an era of "fiscal dominance." We're in an era of fiscal influence. Deficits are keeping inflation higher than it otherwise would be, but restrictive rates are still a net drag on demand, mainly by making borrowing more expensive and keeping the housing market in a sustained stagnation.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb]

This retard Bessent (who unfollowed me) can't hid his Orwellian "stabilize" spin: gas at the pump up ~50% since Trump 2 came to office.
@SecScottBessent, you idiot, who are you bullshitting?

[懐玉 @Ksziqgg]

改变人生的名校箴言：

1.不要害怕犯错，害怕的是停止思考。（芝加哥大学）

2.先行动，再完善。（斯坦福大学）

3.不要追随共识，要理解共识。（牛津大学）

4.真正的学习，是获得独立思考的能力。（剑桥大学）

5.不要只发现问题，要成为解决问题的人。（MIT）

6.时间是你最稀缺的资产。（沃顿商学院）

7.不要把一次失败，当成人生的结论。（密歇根大学）

8.你最终拥有的，不是知识，而是判断力。（哈佛大学）

9.不要只问“能赚多少钱”，要问“创造了什么价值”。（宾夕法尼亚大学）

10.不要让别人的掌声决定你的人生。（耶鲁大学）

11. 不要害怕质疑，因为共识不等于真理。（牛津大学）

12. 你的时间花在哪里，你的人生就会长成什么样。（哈佛大学）

13. 学会独立思考，而不是熟练地重复别人。（剑桥大学）

14. 解决一个真实的问题，比证明自己聪明更重要。（MIT）

15. 不要等待机会，创造一个别人无法忽视的价值。（斯坦福大学）

16. 人生不是寻找标准答案，而是学会提出好问题。（芝加哥大学）

17. 你真正的竞争力，是别人拿不走的能力。（普林斯顿大学）

18. 不要只追求成功，要成为一个值得成功的人。（耶鲁大学）

19. 长期主义的本质，是愿意为未来的自己投资。（宾夕法尼亚大学）

20. 世界不会奖励你的努力，只会奖励你创造的价值。（沃顿商学院）

[Norton Reveno @nortonreveno]

Recentemente, o bilionário Peter Thiel investiu em uma startup que coloca coleiras inteligentes em vacas.

Parece piada, mas a empresa já vale mais de US$ 2 bilhões.

Funciona assim: o pecuarista desenha uma cerca virtual pelo celular e o GPS da coleira mantém cada animal dentro da área definida. Quando a vaca se aproxima do limite, recebe um sinal sonoro e uma leve vibração indicando para onde deve voltar. Em poucos dias, ela aprende.

Na prática, o pecuarista consegue mover o rebanho inteiro arrastando uma linha na tela. Sem porteiras, quilômetros de arame ou a necessidade de percorrer o campo.

Mas a parte mais valiosa não é a cerca.

Enquanto o gado pasta, o sistema registra cinco leituras por segundo de cada animal, acompanhando movimento, comportamento e condição física.

Com esses dados, a IA consegue identificar sinais de doenças, período fértil e até prever partos antes que isso seja percebido por alguém no campo.

O nome da IA é Cowgorithm. Ela foi treinada com mais de 7 bilhões de horas de comportamento real de vacas.

Para um leigo, o modelo de negócios parece ser apenas as coleiras. Mas, na realidade, são os dados.

Hoje, mais de 1 milhão de animais usam a tecnologia, por um custo de cerca de US$ 5 a US$ 8 por vaca por mês.

O Brasil tem um dos maiores rebanhos bovinos do mundo, com mais de 200 milhões de cabeças, e boa parte do setor ainda opera com métodos tradicionais.

É uma tecnologia com espaço enorme para crescer por aqui!

[Peter Mallouk @PeterMallouk]

A wonderful life lesson from Charlie Munger:
“Crooks, crazies, egomaniacs, people full of resentment, people full of self-pity, people who feel like victims … avoid them like the plague.”

[Cullen Roche @cullenroche]

First, gold isn't a price deflator. The price of gold doesn't accurately reflect the cost of living because its demand is driven largely by things other than consumption (like central bank demand for example).

Second, that isn't the "logic" at all unless you are an MMT clown. We have the most productive and innovative private sector that has ever existed in human history. That's the only reason we can afford such a large govt. Even if you subtract the entire federal debt from household net worth it is still a whopping 160 TRILLION.

The idea that the wealthiest economy in human history somehow has a bankrupt govt is preposterous. You could build this narrative better around almost any other country in the world.

The inflation debate is an interrelated topic, but isn't reflective of some fiscal problem. The reason the US govt spends so much is because we have gigantic wealth that isn't equally distributed so the bottom 50% rely heavily on the govt just to survive. That isn't a solvency or hyperinflation risk. It's a tradeoff for living in an amazingly wealthy economy with inequality.

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

But debt to assets has its own problem:

A big part of it is nonsensical, because US govt debt is household asset

So the more in debt the govt is, the more assets the private sector has

By this logic, no one needs to work, the govt just needs to borrow and have the Fed and banks create money to buy and hold that govt debt as “assets” in ever greater amounts and we can live forevermore in ever-rising prosperity

This is what John Law proposed in France, & the South Sea bubble did in England. It was secularly inflationary then and it is secularly inflationary now

That’s why home prices in the US are at ATH’s in USD but 45 year lows in gold terms, & why stock prices are still below 2000 highs in gold terms

@cullenroche

[English grammar @knowiiiedge]

Master These 36 Idioms!

1. Break the ice → Start talking
2. Piece of cake → Very easy
3. Spill the beans → Reveal a secret
4. Hit the sack → Go to bed
5. Get cold feet → Feel nervous
6. Under the weather → Feel sick
7. Out of the blue → Unexpectedly
8. In hot water → In trouble
9. Call it a day → Stop working
10. Miss the boat → Miss a chance
11. On cloud nine → Very happy
12. Bite the bullet → Face difficulty
13. Go the extra mile → Try harder
14. Pull someone’s leg → Joke
15. Keep an eye on → Watch
16. Hang in there → Don’t give up
17. Cut corners → Do cheaply
18. See eye to eye → Agree
19. Hit the nail on the head → Be exactly right
20. Rain cats and dogs → Rain heavily
21. Burn the midnight oil → Work late
22. Make ends meet → Manage money
23. Add fuel to the fire → Make worse
24. Barking up the wrong tree → Blame wrongly
25. Back to square one → Start again
26. Cost an arm and a leg → Very expensive
27. Let the cat out of the bag → Reveal a secret
28. A dime a dozen → Very common
29. Go with the flow → Stay flexible
30. Speak of the devil → Person appears
31. Take it easy → Relax
32. Break a leg → Good luck
33. Once in a blue moon → Rarely
34. The ball is in your court → Your decision
35. Face the music → Accept consequences
36. Jump the gun → Act too soon

[Amelia Clark @AmeliaClaragje]

@EricLDaugh He drove to the tarmac for someone he was calling "boxed" and "studied" us in the same week. Servicemembers lining the walkway too, that's a full production for a guy he says he doesn't trust

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

If you don't mind being wrong on the way to being right you'll learn a lot--and increase your effectiveness.

But if you can't tolerate being wrong, you won't grow, you'll make yourself and everyone around you miserable, and your work environment will be marked by petty backbiting and malevolent barbs rather than by a healthy, honest search for truth. #principleoftheday

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

How it started (left): "The Debasement Trade is Unraveling and Kevin Warsh is One Big Reason" - Bloomberg, 6/24/26

How it's going (right): BTC up 41% since, gold up 9% since.

[𝐒𝐞𝐝𝐚𝐧𝐮𝐫🍷 @gercektenbezdim]

Ruhen size denk olmayan insanlarla arkadaşlık bile kurmayın; kariyer olarak size denk olmayan yerde çalışmayın; kalite olarak size denk olmayanla evli, sevgili olmayın. Ucuza gittiğiniz her yerde ucuz muamele görürsünüz.