MIT semiconductor researcher Pradyot Yadav just published a must-read War on the Rocks piece on Gallium Nitride (GaN) that highlights a massive vulnerability in the US defense supply chain.
Read his macro thesis here: https://t.co/Z4erzDS50J
But while the market is entirely focused on semiconductors, the optics sector faces the exact same geopolitical threat. And one small-cap company is quietly capturing the solution.
Here is why LightPath Technologies ($LPTH) is the ultimate defense tech proxy right now. 🧵👇
1/ The Geopolitical Chokehold
Yadav notes that China’s 2023 export bans restricted Gallium (the "beating heart" of next-gen radar). What went under the radar? Those same bans restricted Germanium, the bedrock material for thermal and infrared optics (the "eyes" of the military).
2/ The Domestic Alternative
To secure the supply chain, the DoD desperately needs an alternative to Germanium. $LPTH produces a proprietary Chalcogenide glass (Black Diamond™) that perfectly replaces Germanium in thermal imaging, completely bypassing the Chinese chokehold and securing domestic production.
3/ Scaling the Solution
As Yadav argues, the US is not failing at the basic science of critical materials, but at manufacturing scale. $LPTH is actively bridging this gap. They are rapidly transitioning from a fragmented parts supplier into a vertically integrated, high-volume domestic manufacturer of fully assembled optical systems.
4/ Why Now? The Execution Phase
The macro thesis is clear, but the fundamental execution is what makes $LPTH so compelling today:
Hyper-Growth: The company just reported 109% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3 2026, proving the demand for their Germanium alternative is rapidly accelerating.
Massive Visibility: They are currently sitting on a record order backlog exceeding $110 million.
Funding Risk Cleared: On June 2, $LPTH announced a $100 million direct offering. Crucially, $50 million of this is fresh primary capital for the company (priced at $14 per share), fully funding them for working capital and acquisitions without the overhang of imminent dilution.
5/ The Geopolitical Proxy
The DoD is actively looking to inject capital into domestic champions of critical supply chains. If companies like $WOLF and $QRVO are the strategic proxies for GaN, LightPath is positioning itself as the exact equivalent for next-gen defense optics. With their balance sheet fortified and a massive backlog in hand, the execution phase is fully underway.
Personal update: I've joined Anthropic. I think the next few years at the frontier of LLMs will be especially formative. I am very excited to join the team here and get back to R&D. I remain deeply passionate about education and plan to resume my work on it in time.
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