Tony Napier

Follow SpaceX, xAI, Tesla, Bitcoin, Ethereum, data center IT, macro view, technology progress, biotech-longevity, nanotech, cryonics, libertarianism, e/acc

[Tony Napier @2morrowSpace]

LEVITATION did I leave anything out? @pmarca

[Tony Napier @2morrowSpace]

@robinhanson https://t.co/9FxoF5Nn1s

[World of Engineering @engineers_feed]

On July 15 2026, NASA selected 41 commercial technology projects for development, all targeting critical engineering challenges for future Moon and Mars missions.

The full list reveals how different living in space actually is from living on Earth.

Selected projects include:

POWER
• Microreactor nuclear power systems for lunar night (14 Earth days of darkness)
• Ultra-lightweight solar concentrators for locations where sunlight is weak

DUST MITIGATION
• Lunar regolith (Moon dust) is 10× more abrasive than sandpaper and electrostatically charged
• It destroyed Apollo equipment within hours
• Multiple projects targeting passive and active dust removal from spacesuits, solar panels, and equipment

IN-SITU RESOURCE UTILIZATION (ISRU)
• Converting lunar ice into oxygen and hydrogen propellant
• Using Martian CO₂ to produce methane fuel (Sabatier reaction)
• Turning urine and wastewater into concrete-like construction material using urea as a binder

THERMAL MANAGEMENT
• Radiators that work in the Moon's 120°C daytime / -170°C nighttime swing
• Insulation systems that outperform anything available on Earth

COMMUNICATIONS
• Delay-tolerant networking for Mars (24-minute signal delay means real-time communication is impossible)

The engineering challenges of living on another world aren't about propulsion or launch.
They're about water, dust, power, heat, and biology.

The Moon is 384,000 km away.
Every kilogram we don't have to launch from Earth saves approximately $10,000.

The goal isn't to bring Earth to space.
It's to make space a place where humans can live with what's there.

[Tony Napier @2morrowSpace]

Grok state Ship 40 probable outcome (as of ~04:38 AM PDT, Sunday July 26, 2026 — roughly 36 hours after splashdown).

Here’s my current best estimate, based on SpaceX’s presence (GO Australis still station-keeping with it), public statements that full recovery isn’t the goal for this test article, logistical realities, past practices with floating debris, and ongoing tracker discussions:

1. Demolition 55% - deliberate scuttling by SpaceX (intentional flooding, explosive charge, or other means to sink it cleanly). Highest probability. Once they’ve finished drone/boat inspections of the heat shield and structure, the practical and preferred end-state is to eliminate it as a navigation hazard and security risk. This matches how SpaceX has handled previous floating debris and what environmental assessments typically require (recover or sink). Having the support vessel on-site makes this easy to execute.

2. Natural sinking 30% (left alone and eventually floods / founders on its own) - It’s already partially compromised (some methane venting/fire reported early on, progressive wave damage, corrosion starting). Telemetry is gone. Without intervention it will sink eventually, but SpaceX is unlikely to just walk away while it’s still a floating object of interest.

3. Somebody retrieves it 15% (SpaceX tows significant hardware or the whole vehicle, or a third party gets involved) - SpaceX full or major-part recovery: ~12–13% (possible if they decide the intact hardware is unusually valuable, but remote location + size + cost make it low-odds).
Third-party (China/Russia/etc.): ~2% or less. Extremely unlikely while GO Australis is right there.

[Tony Napier @2morrowSpace]

@CSI_Starbase If all inner 13 engines are needed for landing burn, and none of the outer 20 can relight in flight, this is called SPOF. So, find a way to do it with <13 so there are backup engines available if needed... where is the fallacy in this logic?

[Tony Napier @2morrowSpace]

@Polymarket https://t.co/ApTEkbjSW0

[Brian Roemmele @BrianRoemmele]

Driving on the Moon…

[Cleta Mitchell @CletaMitchell]

Someone asked the other day about the definition of socialism, communism, and Marxism. Ann Landers years ago explained it well! Enjoy!

[Andrej Karpathy @karpathy]

In awe of SpaceX and its story - past, present and the future. You can think about it in 10+ different ways and continue re-blowing your mind in circles. Huge congrats to the team! 🚀

[stevenmarkryan @stevenmarkryan]

This post is almost HALF A DECADE old.

Elon: “You’re drowning, grab my hand”
Them: “No”.

You do not understand how inept large legacy auto companies are.

When given the choice to live, they chose death.

When the bankruptcies happen, remember this post from early 2022.

[Vivek Ramaswamy @VivekGRamaswamy]

10 Things I’ll Do for Ohio:

1. Slash your property taxes.
2. Abolish your state income tax.
3. Cut your electric bills.
4. Prosecute Medicaid fraud.
5. Bring higher standards to our schools.
6. Slice your healthcare costs.
7. Bring high-paying jobs back to our state.
8. Put human traffickers in prison where they belong.
9. Teach kids to be proud of our state & our country.
10. Crush crime in our cities.

Coming in 2027.

[Tony Napier @2morrowSpace]

@PeterDiamandis Vinge called it Ubiquitous Law Enforcement.

[Tony Napier @2morrowSpace]

@ID_AA_Carmack Bravo! Jerry Pournelle should not be forgotten. The Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle books are among the best. One of my favorites was the Tau Ceti colony getting attacked by tasmanian-devil creatures... ala Heinlein's creatures in Tunnel in the Sky.

[Tony Napier @2morrowSpace]

@JoeTegtmeyer A "platoon" of Cybercabs?

[Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 @pmarca]

E/Acc Index!

[Tony Napier @2morrowSpace]

Wreck avoided thanks to @Tesla FSD v14.3.4

[david friedberg @friedberg]

if @elonmusk paid 100% of his net worth ($1.4 trillion) as a tax it would only cover federal government spending for 77 days. this isn’t a tax problem…

[Tony Napier @2morrowSpace]

This was FSD v14.3.4

[Tony Napier @2morrowSpace]

Rain at dusk, double yellow line, 2 lane county road, and some idiot passes over a blind hill. FSD slowed and pulled over, creating a gap for the oncoming car to pass through. Whew, thank you @Tesla FSD!