$tsla
옵티머스, 로보택시로
연말까지 테슬라 시총이
2조 달러 가까이 된다면,
스페이스x는 IPO 이후에
1.3-5조 달러로 조정받는다면,
내년 합병한다고 하더라도
테슬라는 주식 추가 발행 불필요,
주가 희석도 안될거고
합병 이슈로 훨씬 더 오를거 같은데.
이게 머스크 보상이 아닐까?
WARNING: SpaceX $SPCX may have the most distorted valuation the stock market has ever seen.
Only 4% of SpaceX shares are actually trading.
That means 96% of shareholders aren’t selling.
So the entire company is being valued based on the price of a tiny fraction of shares.
Why is that a problem?
Because when only 4% of shares are available, a relatively small amount of buying can push the price much higher.
Furthermore, right before the IPO, Nasdaq changed key rules.
The exchange removed its 10% public float requirement and shortened seasoning periods to just 15 days.
That allowed SpaceX to enter major indices much faster.
The result?
Passive ETFs and index funds had to buy shares regardless of valuation.
But there weren’t many shares available to buy.
Now compare the fundamentals:
SpaceX generated $18.7B in revenue last year.
Amazon generated over $700B in the same time period.
Yet SpaceX briefly traded near Amazon’s valuation.
The question isn’t whether SpaceX is a great company.
It’s whether a $2.5 trillion valuation discovered on just 4% of the shares can hold once more shares hit the market.
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