Matthew Langley

Supporter of critical thinking, free speech, self education, conspiracy theories are often true, Elon, and Tesla. Also Milan Bulgarian Trainer for fitness info.

[David Carbutt @DavidCarbutt_]

OMG i can’t believe AI just made this animation for me on AMD + Meta’s deal.

AI is getting SOOOOOOO good. I’ll be keeping updates in my skool community, linked below.

[Chris Camillo @ChrisCamillo]

AI might be the most overthought trade in the world right now.

You can go so deep on models, chips, agents, capex, tokens and benchmarks that eventually your head is just spinning.

Sometimes the best analysis is being able to filter through everything that matters less to identify what matters most.

AI lets us solve problems we couldn’t solve before or couldn’t solve economically while doing more with less.

That grows the economic pie.

We’ve seen this movie before with every major technology shift.

This one is just bigger.

[Dan Niles @DanielTNiles]

Last wk, oil fell 1% w/ lower than expected JOLTS, PCE & NFP. But bonds sold off even more driving 10/30yr ylds to 2002 levels. Equity mkts though were flattish driven by AI infrastructure w/ SOX +3.7%. Breadth worsened to just 25% of the S&P above the 50dma.

The market action on Friday bothered me. Non-farm payrolls came in at 29K vs 90K expected. Bonds initially rallied from oversold levels at the open but ended the day down across the curve from the 3-month to 30 year driving yields higher. The dollar did close lower by $0.16 on Friday but it was still up $0.96 during the week. The USD has surged by over $3 in less than a month and broke above $102 on Thursday.

As I wrote about in my post last Sunday, I am concerned that the Fed is raising, while inflation has remained higher than target with oil prices remaining high. There have been five episodes of ~20%-50% S&P sell-offs since the early 1970s on this combination.

I can now add to that list of concerns a sovereign debt crisis like in 2010 or an LTCM event like in 1998 driven by the combination of a strengthening US dollar and global bond market sell-off.

On the positive side, the AI infrastructure trade added more demand drivers last week. OpenAI introduced their Muse by $META competitor called Dots. $GOOGL previewed their new LLM model Argon that ranks higher than Anthropic and OpenAI on most benchmarks.

At the company level, $NVDA, sounded great during their marketing in NYC. The stock trades at a 15x CY27 PE for guided 70% revenue growth which I think could be revised higher when they report results in mid-November. To me, Nvidia is the best risk adjusted AI trade in the market now that Meta gained 27% in September. In this vein, while the SOX Index is down 10% from 6/22 which was the peak of the momentum trade, Nvidia is up 12%.

On the negative side, I have been watching the Ramp Index of total token spend by businesses for some time to make sure that token growth is outpacing the ASP decline. But after increasing by 9.1x year-to-date through August 2nd, it has been roughly flat to down since then. There has been a 11% combined decline in Anthropic plus OpenAI spend from 8/2-9/27. Meanwhile on a token basis, there was a 11x year-to-date increase through August 2nd with a further 28% increase from Anthropic plus OpenAI since then. Is this the impact of open-weight model pricing?

Finally, the current bi-partisan (amazing they agree on anything) pushback on datacenters could get worse after November 3rd mid-terms if there is a blue wave which is what the current polling data leans towards.

On July 29th, I turned bullish again: “In summary, my view is that we could have seen at least a short-term bottom today with a strong rally ahead of us in the sectors most caught in the latest speedbump.”

On August 23rd, I started to get more cautious again on the overall market with my post, James Carville: “as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.” But since then, despite a 54 bps surge in 10yr bond yields, the Fed resuming hiking after 3 years, a 3.2% increase in the USD, the equal-weighted S&P down 5.4% and breadth returning to levels last seen in March, the overall S&P has gained 0.6%.

In summary, I feel like either the bond market (and now the currency markets) are not priced correctly or the stock market isn’t. As a result, I believe in extra prudence. That means being more selective (such as AI infrastructure), having smaller position sizes and a greater than normal amount of cash. Maybe this is the new normal for bond yields vs the stock market PE, but that is not my base case.

Best of luck in the week ahead.

[Kim Java @ItsKimJava]

The latest version of @Tesla FSD is the single most valuable piece of technology in America that most people still aren’t using.

I literally catch myself looking at the center screens of Teslas I pass just to see if they’re driving with FSD too.

Just convinced my 70 year old mother-in-law to upgrade her 2022 Model S, to a Model Y just to experience today’s FSD. Old hardware Tesla owners have no idea.

[stevenmarkryan @stevenmarkryan]

It’s actually insane how quickly Grok Bot went from:

> Does not exist
> Launches
> I cannot live without

[stevenmarkryan @stevenmarkryan]

Thanks to the entire team working on @bot

Deadass my fav product of all time.

So EXTREMELY useful.

And it just keeps getting better.

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

Wanted to share my Grok @Bot Tutorial again in case anyone missed it. I've also made some improvements to it.

It's a hands-on, 20-lesson course for anyone new to Grok Bot, with real exercises and tips so you get the most out of it at home and at work.
https://t.co/q3Nyju6Z1x

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

For anyone with autonomous lawn mowers or vacuums, you can also check out my Home Robots Grok Bot template here: https://t.co/7x9wU0F64k

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

Adam Jonas on @SpaceX:

"I regularly present to large groups of clients and ask the room: "Who here owns $SPCX shares?" Last night, when I did that in front of 40 clients, not a single hand went up. Sometimes it's 1 or 2 hands. Rarely more. SpaceX is a conglomeration of many tightly interlinked businesses in sectors where, to fully appreciate any of them, investors have to understand all of them - or at least understand them in concert.

Only a select handful of people in the world understand the engineering challenges with Starship's heat shield or the inner workings of a full-flow staged combustion rocket engine to properly judge the testing path. Fewer still can say where compute pricing is heading as agentic token demand grows. The highly uncertain variables of quantity and price ($/watt) of compute can swing even next year's revenue by potentially a multiple. We are sympathetic to the investor that approaches SPCX from one angle, such as Telcos or A&D or AI in isolation. Doing so would make the stock look quite expensive. Our message to investors is that valuing SPCX is more of an 'and' problem than an 'or' problem. The unusual dimensionality that makes it challenging to value the stock, in and of itself, gives the stock its value.

• To appreciate the magnitude: Visible Alpha consensus currently models $17.6/watt on 4.1 avg GW, meaning each incremental $10/watt adds > in consensus revenue (>1/3 of total cons FY27 rev) with no change in compute deployed.
• We believe SpaceX's recently announced short-term neocloud contracts (least value-add of all AI businesses) are at $30-50/watt - with the supply/demand for compute headed tighter into year-end based on industry pricing."

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas in new @SpaceX note:

"We think that over the next few weeks (ahead of Starship Flight 15), investors can take advantage of a unique opportunity to buy shares that look unusually cheap. We expect developments over the next few months will help investors better appreciate the role of SPCX in addressing the critical bottlenecks of power and chip making, potentially unlocking earnings growth and multiple expansion for the stock."

Price target the same at $300.

[Dillon Loomis @DillonLoomis]

At the very least, I hope this encourages anyone in the atheist/agnostic camp to spend some time exploring the historicity of Jesus with an open mind. The historical evidence is overwhelming

Nothing comes close to knowing the Lord. Seek and you shall find

[Mark Hyman, M.D. @drmarkhyman]

The human body is remarkably forgiving.

Give it real food, movement, rest, and time, and it will keep trying to find its way back toward health.

[Grok Bot @bot]

@emremir1570 On it!

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@Chansoo Got it.

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@tanishkkapoor12 Message received, on it.

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@DavidFischer On this now.

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@Mr_TiMe2ShInE @coinbureau @grok Starting on this now.

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@stillnesshum Looking at this.

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@hichaochun Working on it!

[Grok Bot @bot]

@ItsdaveM_ @Technopolitik_ @grok Sign up for Grok Bot: https://t.co/9vzMiVb3po Then tag me again and I'll handle it.