Update on Solana (solana:So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112) and Hyperliquid (hyperliquid:native)!
Since my first post on October 6, a lot has happened!
📉 SOL: From $120.70 to $103.70, a 14.08% decline.
📉 HYPE: From $93.41 to $78.60, a 15.86% decline.
Both assets showed a significant concentration of potential liquidations in leveraged Long positions, indicating a major downside risk imbalance.
But there are other factors behind the scenes that increase my confidence in trading against market consensus and human behavior!
Solana: The recent announcement of its first-ever office in China.
Hyperliquid: An environment of intense euphoria, particularly surrounding the Hyper Foundation's major community event in Singapore during TOKEN2049 week, where Jeff Yan was also among the featured speakers.
When I see this level of enthusiasm combined with imbalances in derivatives data, my confidence in taking positions against prevailing market sentiment increases significantly!
I warned about this publicly and put my analysis into practice, as my own trades clearly demonstrate!
This has absolutely nothing to do with liking or disliking a particular project. It's about understanding human behavior, identifying risk asymmetries, and acting ahead of the market based on data!
Events and narratives don't determine prices, but they help us understand the market's psychological environment.
Data > Narratives. Always!
Follow @Alphractal to uncover new alpha opportunities and see what many investors are still missing!
Understand that the last three major pullbacks for $ZEC were 60%, 66%, and 63%. The current pullback, if the measured move plays out is 57%. This would be quite normal behavior for Zcash after a large move up.
Solana ($SOL) is in a league of its own.
Averaging 1,400 transactions per second versus just 40 TPS across other blockchain networks, its lead over rivals is only set to expand. Next week's consensus upgrade is expected to drop transaction finality to just 150 milliseconds.
Read more on The Stack: https://t.co/3BVX9yVUap
Today’s announcement for solana:pumpCmXqMfrsAkQ5r49WcJnRayYRqmXz6ae8H7H9Dfn has been far more impactful than the market has given it credit for.
In addition to HL builder code perps, Pump introduces a platform fee (0.45%) to its app, which would, at current volumes, annualise to $49M in incremental revenue.
With this revenue going to users directly rather than buybacks, it creates a reflexive cycle which grows Pump’s consumer layer, something central to our thesis and something it’s been executing extremely well on:
1. Mobile app is up: daily traders 2.2x m/m to ~43.5k, volume on pace for ~$1B in October (+48% m/m)
2. Terminal is up: daily traders at an all-time high of 10.7k (+24% m/m)
Ownership of this layer 1) allows a ton of optionality for further integrations (e.g. HL builder codes) and 2) strengthens the positioning of Pump’s already entrenched launchpad and DEX layer.
PumpFun just launched perps powered by Hyperliquid
This will obviously be another tool for degens to play with, and also shows how Hyperliquid is a really strong infra play
For guys like me this is far more interesting to use vs memecoins so it will onboard a new category of users to the app
I ran up a perp account from $50K to $92K a few weeks ago so might do it in public and see if I can do it again
History repeats: the weekly death cross flashed near the bottom for the fourth cycle in a row.
A traditionally bearish signal, marking the start of the bull.
Once we leave the no-man's-land between the 50 & 100w MA, the real fun begins.
Bags packed. Time to make it count.
Vitalik Buterin Unveils Privacy-Focused AI Agent Setup Combining zkAPI, Tor, and Local LLMs
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin showcased his personal privacy-focused AI agent setup, integrating zkAPI, Tor, random cover traffic, and local LLM prompt rewriting into the pi agent harness. The system assigns each conversation a separate Tor circuit, uses zkAPI to protect payment privacy, and rewrites prompts locally with a Qwen model.
Vitalik said the setup is becoming usable but still suffers from significant latency, especially when starting new conversations, while Tor remains vulnerable to timing-correlation attacks involving colluding providers and entry nodes. He suggested that a specialized mixnet may offer stronger protection and added that lower gas costs for zkAPI deposits and withdrawals on Ethereum mainnet are coming soon.
🚨 @TRADEXYZ HAS DEPOSITED $2,069,000 INTO THE LIQUIDATOR. IN THE EVENT A LARGE VOLATILITY AND WITHOUT A COUNTERPARTY, TRADERS WILL HAVE THEIR LIQUIDATIONS TAKEN BY THE LIQUIDATOR, WHICH HELPS REDUCE ADL.
The U.S. Became a Net Importer of Bitcoin for the First Time in 2026, Marking the First Such Shift Since 2022
According to a Chainalysis report, the U.S. became a net importer of Bitcoin in 2026 for the first time since 2022, with institutions continuing to buy Bitcoin while retail investors were net sellers. Since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, the U.S. share of global Bitcoin activity has increased in every reporting period. Meanwhile, the U.S. crypto economy totaled $2.78 trillion, down 2.2% quarter over quarter, while dollar-backed stablecoins continued to expand in overseas payments and cross-border commerce, generating billions of dollars in economic activity for U.S. companies and the government.
MORGAN STANLEY HASN'T SOLD ETH ONCE IN 20 DAYS
Morgan Stanley's MSSE ETF has bought $4.2M of ETH over the past 20 days, with no outflows on a single day.
BlackRock's ETHA saw $44.4M of outflows yesterday. Will Morgan Stanley keep buying?
🚨 NEW: Helius CEO Mert Mumtaz has been appointed to the NEAR Foundation Council, where he’ll help steer the foundation’s push to bring privacy to onchain markets.
PRL to outperform TAO.
NEAR to outperform VVV.
ZEC to outperform BTC.
QTC to outperform SUI.
LINK to outperform AVAX.
HYPE to outperform SOL.
LIT to outperform UNI.
Some rough market comparision takes here, it's time to think about outperformance.
Everything will be higher in 3-6 months, but will you beat the market?
I'm planning on it. Let's ride.