Aleks Kapich

🌐 Data Science BEng 🌐
⚽ Football stats enjoyer ⚽
❤️💙 FC Barcelona supporter 💙❤️

[Aleks Kapich @AKapich]

Just wrote a tutorial on how to create passing sonars in Python, like the plot below ⬇️

For those interested in data visualization and football analytics, it's available here: https://t.co/EcEDNATWL2

[Aleks Kapich @AKapich]

@AlienPawi Gratulacje!

[Aleks Kapich @AKapich]

Estimation based on 20k simulations 🟢

Detailed results for the top 8 spots ⬇️

[Aleks Kapich @AKapich]

ELO-based predictions for the UECL League Stage 🟢 (data from @clubelo)

Rayo’s favourable draw puts them second favourites, just behind Crystal Palace ⚡

All 4 Polish contenders hold similar chances of progressing further 🇵🇱

cc: @pklimek99 @LukaszBoz @FootRankings @DbAbsur

[Aleks Kapich @AKapich]

If you’ve ever wanted to build your own football prediction model, I just wrote a comprehensive guide that walks through the math, the logic, and includes all the code you’ll need ⬇️

It covers the use of Elo ratings, Poisson model & Skellam distribution📊
https://t.co/caTeDyGRaM

[Aleks Kapich @AKapich]

Elo ratings are widely used in football prediction models, though the original system was designed for chess and only handled wins & losses.

In my article, I explain how the classic binary Elo model can be adapted to account for draws, to suit football ⬇️
https://t.co/ILRLRn1MkP

[Aleks Kapich @AKapich]

Schalke will most likely end up between 10th and 14th place.

The battle for Bundesliga play-offs seems to be one of the most exciting parts of the league's finish with 5 teams having concrete chances of sealing the 3th place.

[Aleks Kapich @AKapich]

A few days ago, I came across a Transfermarkt infographic on possible final places for each team in 2. Bundesliga, with @s04 potentially finishing in any of the 18 positions.

I ran 20k ELO-based simulations to check what we may really expect ⬇️

[Aleks Kapich @AKapich]

Inspired by accounts like @FootRankings and @fmeetsdata, I built my own predictive model 📊

Here are ELO-based forecasts for the remainder of the Polish @Ekstraklasa season: @Rakow1921 leads the title race, while the relegation battle is wide open, with 4 teams deeply involved.

[Aleks Kapich @AKapich]

@cwiakala Chętnie dowiedziałbym się więcej o współpracy Widzewa ze StatsBomb oraz pracy Marka Kabata - w jakich obszarach pracuje dział analityczny i jak wygląda jego współpraca z resztą sztabu?

[Aleks Kapich @AKapich]

@FratesiJuan @chadha_ishdeep StatsBomb API https://t.co/qO9PNUTYei

[vittorio @IterIntellectus]

this is a lie that breaks too many people

[Aleks Kapich @AKapich]

@AFC_Monty_ This reasoning is entirely wrong.
In these 12 matches Arsenal's opponents accumulated 8.38 xG (source: SofaScore for UCL & PL+ footystats for EFL)

9 goals conceded are almost the exact amount we would expect Arsenal to concede, considering only xG, they scarcely underperformed

[Aleks Kapich @AKapich]

@chadha_ishdeep Good work!
Glad that my article came in handy

[Ishdeep @chadha_ishdeep]

Croatia V Portugal
Momentum Chart Based on Expected Threat

Reference - @AKapich (Check out his latest medium article for more)

[Aleks Kapich @AKapich]

Although I shared the same thing yesterday, it feels accurate to highlight it again in the context of Nordsjælland's record sales.

As part of the Right to Dream Academy, Nordsjælland serves as an excellent springboard into European football for young African talents.

[Aleks Kapich @AKapich]

Outstanding work by FC Nordsjælland 🇩🇰 #FCN

A bit more about their second most expensive outgoing transfer Ibrahim Osman here: https://t.co/Jvgy5Mln3l

[Football Talent Scout - Jacek Kulig @FTalentScout]

FC Nordsjælland's record sales:

🇬🇭Ernest Nuamah ➡️ RWDM 25M€
🇬🇭Ibrahim Osman ➡️ Brighton 19,5M€
🇩🇰Conrad Harder ➡️ Sporting CP 19M€
🇬🇭Kamaldeen Sulemana ➡️ Rennes 17M€
🇹🇷Emre Mor ➡️ BVB 9,75M€
🇳🇴Andreas Schjelderup ➡️ Benfica 9M€
🇬🇭Mohammed Kudus ➡️ Ajax 9M€
🇨🇮Simon Adingra ➡️ Brighton 8M€
🇧🇫Adamo Nagalo ➡️ PSV 7M€
🇩🇰Mikkel Damsgaard ➡️ Sampdoria 6,75M€
🇩🇰Andreas Skov Olsen ➡️ Bologna 6M€

FCN boasts an outstanding scouting network, a strong partnership with Right to Dream, and a superb youth academy. An excellent place to develop young players. 🐯

[Aleks Kapich @AKapich]

Osman posed a serious offensive threat in front of the goal, compared to the other 36 wingers (positions according to @StatsBomb) who played at least 720 minutes last season in the Danish League

🇬🇭 achieved 6G+7A

The charts come from my article: https://t.co/Jvgy5MlUST

[Aleks Kapich @AKapich]

Ibrahim Osman's €19.5 million move to #BHAFC isn't surprising given his prolific performance as a winger in the last 🇩🇰 #Superligaen season, especially considering it was the first full season in European football for 2004-born Ghanaian 🇬🇭

[Aleks Kapich @AKapich]

2023: Ibrahim Osman joins @FCNordsjaelland through @right2dream Academy 🇬🇭
2024: Osman moves to Brighton for 19,50 mln €

In my latest Medium article, I use data to explore which #Ekstraklasa players could potentially step in his shoes in #Superligaen ⬇️

https://t.co/Jvgy5MlUST

[Aleks Kapich @AKapich]

Gegenpressing in 🇵🇱 Ekstraklasa 2023/2024.
(Defined as pressing within 5 seconds of an open play turnover)

Is it a coincidence that relegated @RuchChorzow1920 & @LKS_Lodz focused their counter-pressing efforts rather further away from their opponents' penalty areas?