Adam D. Koós, CFP®, CMT, CFTe, CEPA

Financial & Business Advisor, Helping Biz-Owners & Exec’s Make Work "Optional." Cleveland Bred, Buckeye Alum, Car Freak, husband, & father of 2 cool little men.

[Adam D. Koós, CFP®, CMT, CFTe, CEPA @AdamKoos]

Thanks for the continued support, @djwizmo and @ProAdvisorMag. As I reflect back on the very first article, I remain humbled by your continued desire to work together on educating both investors and professionals on proactive investment management. https://t.co/IYjJ5qnQJ8

[Adam D. Koós, CFP®, CMT, CFTe, CEPA @AdamKoos]

HEADS UP: I’ll be live on The Morning Show on @stockmkttv with @JC_ParetsX and @sstrazza TOMORROW at 9:00 am ET.

Check it out here: 
https://t.co/pT0QHxep6V

[Adam D. Koós, CFP®, CMT, CFTe, CEPA @AdamKoos]

My "Pre-flight Checklist" (which was developed years ago w/ the help of my good friends and fellow CMTs @DKellerCMT & @DavidCoxRJ) helps me get a quick, but comprehensive look at the markets each day...

...and it's looking pretty ugly right now for new entries.

[Adam D. Koós, CFP®, CMT, CFTe, CEPA @AdamKoos]

$PLTR is back “under water,” trading below falling 50- & 200-day MAs, with another bearish momentum divergence, similar to late-2021.

Does that mean it tanks? Who knows...

We can’t predict tops or bottoms, but we CAN manage risk objectively.

If cap gains are ~23% and the stock falls 23%, you’ll wish you’d paid the tax.

...but could it reverse and rip? Absolutely... that’s the trade-off.

[Adam D. Koós, CFP®, CMT, CFTe, CEPA @AdamKoos]

I don't normally like plotting diagonal trend lines unless I'm pointing out divergences, but...

...this next few weeks is going to hold above the November highs and break out of this pattern, or it's going to break down - and at least for now, momentum is hinting at the latter. $SPX

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

Going back 40 years, stocks have been lower in December during the first year of the Presidential cycle only once.

[Barchart @Barchart]

S&P 500 $SPY Put Volume on Thursday was the 2nd largest ever 🚨 Historically this has usually occurred near bottoms 🥳🤑🫂

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

Yes, yesterday's reversal was ugly, no way around it.

Then again, Thursday is gonna Thursday apparently.

[Adam D. Koós, CFP®, CMT, CFTe, CEPA @AdamKoos]

Every investor who struggles with their retirement savings, politics, and news-related market volatility should frame this and put it on their night stand.

#Perspective

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

In honor of the Dow hitting new high number 1,615, here's the updated Chart of Fears.

A good reminder that each and every year will have some scary headlines, but it is up to you decide what to do about it.

[Adam D. Koós, CFP®, CMT, CFTe, CEPA @AdamKoos]

Touché

[RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research @RenMacLLC]

For all the talk about a Hindenburg Omen, keep in mind that 61 of the 97 people on-board the Hindenburg survived. Tragic as it was, the outcome was better than most people believe. #StockMarket $SPX #hindenburg

[Adam D. Koós, CFP®, CMT, CFTe, CEPA @AdamKoos]

Going back 40 years, only 2018 saw a negative return 1 year later...

...the rest? Not so bad.

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

Will the Government Shutdown end soon?

Here's what the S&P 500 did next, after historical Shutdowns ended:

$SPX

[Adam D. Koós, CFP®, CMT, CFTe, CEPA @AdamKoos]

Sentiment matters...

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

This is wild.

AAII bulls minus bears is -11.1% in 2025. Only 3 other times has this ever been -10% and all happened in bear markets ('90, '08, and '22).

Incredibly, bears outnumbers bulls by 11.1% in '08, the exact same level as in '25 so far.

Wow.

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

A reminder that the average year sees a 14% peak-to-trough correction, yet still gains more than double digits on average.

[Adam D. Koós, CFP®, CMT, CFTe, CEPA @AdamKoos]

Another wonderful, unbiased, educational post about the Hindenburg Omen.

Tom McClellan recently reminded FinTwit that clusters are what truly matter, and Barnhart (below) proves this point with individual datapoints of $SPX performance 1-year later.

@McClellanOsc

[Barchart @Barchart]

Stock Market Crash "Hindenburg Omen" Triggered 🚨

The Hindenburg Omen, an indicator that correctly detected the 1987 and 2008 stock market crashes, has been triggered!

[Adam D. Koós, CFP®, CMT, CFTe, CEPA @AdamKoos]

For those investors who are allowing Hindenburg Omens to rattle your emotions, let alone make knee-jerk trading decisions, please note (and commit to memory) McClellan's final sentence in the post below:

[Tom McClellan @McClellanOsc]

The NYSE on Oct. 30 saw 93 New Highs, and 131 New Lows, both above the 77 threshold (2.8% of A+D) to get another Hindenburg Omen signal. This makes 2 so far, with one yesterday. They tend to matter more when we see a cluster of them.

[Adam D. Koós, CFP®, CMT, CFTe, CEPA @AdamKoos]

😆

[Ian McMillan, CMT @the_chart_life]

You have two options:

1. Cap weight

or

2. Die

[Adam D. Koós, CFP®, CMT, CFTe, CEPA @AdamKoos]

#truth 👇🏼

[J.C. Parets @JC_ParetsX]

If someone tells you the Nov–Jan seasonal strength was “pulled forward,” they either haven’t bothered to look and just making things up, or they have looked and decided to lie to you about it. Historically, strength before this period tends to lead to even more strength during it

[Adam D. Koós, CFP®, CMT, CFTe, CEPA @AdamKoos]

Contrary to the never ending doom & gloom I see from some.

Ride the wave…”the trend is your friend, till the end, when it bends.”

[SentimenTrader @sentimentrader]

The Advisor and Investor Model, a composite measure of market sentiment, recovered from extreme pessimism, cycling from below 5% to above 75%. This move reflects a transition in investors' risk appetite. Historically, similar sentiment shifts near a 5-year high have produced outstanding returns.

🔗Read SentimenTrader's Sep 8 article "A sentiment signal with a perfect record just triggered" - full report available: https://t.co/7vn9ag4Se8

[Adam D. Koós, CFP®, CMT, CFTe, CEPA @AdamKoos]

@RyanDetrick @FrankCappelleri Love this… 🤙🏼

[Adam D. Koós, CFP®, CMT, CFTe, CEPA @AdamKoos]

I'm sure someone else has pointed this out already, but I've been a little busy and haven't had time to be as "active" as I've been in the past...

...but while August ended up being a better month than it normally is, this negative divergence COULD be something to watch

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

They told us the trade war meant everyone would dump our debt.

What actually happened is foreigners are not only buying our debt, but buying stocks as well.