Adam's Analytics

Sports wagerer. Numerical storyteller. World traveler. NBA 22: +11.6u | NBA 23: +27.6u | MLB 23: -57.3u

[Adam's Analytics @AdamsAnalytics1]

Quick update on where things stand in 2026. Interesting times in our sports betting space, and a lot of opportunity to think creatively and profit!

[Adam's Analytics @AdamsAnalytics1]

@ProphetX Can I get a quote and/or purchase a taker RFQ through my ProphetX API key?

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@haralabob Novig does half cent and it works fine!

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@IIPatll I paid for the Discord, but instead it shows up as Website only, even though the manage billing still says Discord. It let me link the Discord but cant see any premium content

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@lmc_security Only important news today is that Kalshi and Poly aren't offering Unders on NBA player props. Turns out there are only certain predictions that are allowed to be predicted! Hard to make the argument of being an 'exchange'....

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@trippycollector @adamlevitan They addressed this in Interception by basically saying they couldn't actually understand why books offer larger than necessary menus on markets they can't really handle

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@ZacSchultz7 @tyvansb @a1fantasy23 The PMs are league partners too though. Leagues have a lot of leverage here and PMs are sensitive to insider trading accusations. Not optimistic

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@FrankTYi83 @RyanPaganetti Believe that is Adkins or Trautman, two of the slowest players on the team. There's no actual window there, just bait from the DB

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@JuniorTB26 @Nathan_Boise @BeyFor3 I'm not fully sure what you're arguing specifically- I'm not even saying the core decision changes or not, just that 50% for OT is the wrong input to start with, so if OP wants to make it a math problem be fair with assumptions

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@JuniorTB26 @Nathan_Boise @BeyFor3 His point was that assuming Dallas had 50% to win in potential OT was 'reasonable, even generous'. That would be a huge deviation from the fair odds line at that point, and I question how deep his conviction of the accuracy is going against millions in sharp money

[Adam's Analytics @AdamsAnalytics1]

@JuniorTB26 @Nathan_Boise @BeyFor3 I think Dallas internal analytics would be fine assuming they are 55 to 60 to win that in OT, barring injuries along the way or some reason to think they had a personnel or schematic disadvantage they couldn't solve

[Adam's Analytics @AdamsAnalytics1]

@JuniorTB26 @Nathan_Boise @BeyFor3 Six years of watching odds and seeing how favorites and dogs in various sports are typically priced after regulation. I mean, I could be off here, but I dont think way off. Cowboys are way more favored than -100, definitely nowhere near -450, but unlikely to be even -203

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@JustinMacmahan @JakobSanderson 70%??? You think Dallas would be -233 headed into OT? No chance

[Adam's Analytics @AdamsAnalytics1]

@JuniorTB26 @Nathan_Boise @BeyFor3 67%, which he cited as the breakeven, is -203. But no, they wouldnt have been -203 headed to OT, probably around 57% to 60%, -133 to -150

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@Nathan_Boise @BeyFor3 So if the game went to OT you would be comfortable laying your money on the Bucs at even odds? If so, can we be friends on Kalshi?

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@nicbstme So the amazing everyday revolutionary time savers are India landing cards and sending insurance information to landlords? I actually do both of those every week, can't imagine how much time this'll save!

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@Mbg_209 @baskgod You're on Predicts not Sportsbook

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@CorbieBO Yeah, but much has changed in the landscape over the last year so it does weight different. Personally I've not been particularly profitable just beating the close on NCAAB so I question the line efficiency. Anyway, thanks for the reply

[Adam's Analytics @AdamsAnalytics1]

@MMaworst @dbtips101 "Hey Barry, we need you to run a slant over the middle. Don't worry about Jack Tatum back there."