Afonso Português

Sell Side Trader | Views are my own | No investment advice

[Peter - Cracking Markets @SystematicPeter]

Monday starts a new trading month. For many monthly momentum strategies, that means rotation.

These strategies form the backbone of my portfolio. Here is a simple Nasdaq-100 version you can start testing now and following from Monday.

The backtest, January 2000 - October 29, 2026:

• Annualized return: 18.85%
• Maximum drawdown: 46.98%

Green: the strategy.
Grey: the Nasdaq-100.

The rules:

[Afonso Português @AfonsoPortugues]

Although I had been optimistic about the U.S. stock market, that optimism was erased due to several factors, such as economic growth scare and U.S. tariffs.
For now, it’s a matter of waiting for a buy signal.

[Afonso Português @AfonsoPortugues]

The market underwent a classic rotation from Risk On to Risk Off, which was captured by my model.
🧵👇

[Afonso Português @AfonsoPortugues]

“If bad news can’t take the market down, it’s going higher.”

[Afonso Português @AfonsoPortugues]

Possible peak in the USD and the beginning of a rebound in US equities? 🧵

[Afonso Português @AfonsoPortugues]

With an excessively long positioning in the USD and an extremely pessimistic sentiment towards US equities, we have seen recent higher-than-expected inflation data trigger the opposite reaction expected in these assets.

[Afonso Português @AfonsoPortugues]

hawkish cut... has the FED PUT expired?

[Afonso Português @AfonsoPortugues]

Santa rally continue, thx powell!

[Afonso Português @AfonsoPortugues]

@leadlagreport Probably the bottom, according to the MNI Chicago PMI and regional manufacturing fed surveys. But right now, a strong economy is more likely to be a bad thing for the market than a weak one. September!

[Alf @MacroAlf]

Companies that are planning to fire a large amount of people in the US have to file WARN notices.

Bloomberg shows how the trend in WARN notices has picked up recently (blue), pointing to a further increase in jobless claims (white).

[Kantro @MichaelKantro]

Housing has not bottomed. Today, the MBA Purchase indicator collapsed again. #Hope

[Carsten Valgreen @CarstenVal]

This is the scariest chart of them all in my opinion:

[Mikael Sarwe @MikaelSarwe]

🇺🇸 With NFIB price components dropping, my US model indicates CPI at 2.5 %-ish y/y mid-2023.

[Per Bylund @PerBylund]

The #economy is a social order, not an engineered machine that produces specific outputs. Before we realize this, attempts to steer, direct, and control it will be costly, destructive, and have severe unintended consequences.

[Mikael Sarwe @MikaelSarwe]

🇸🇪 A quite dreadful NIER survey. Let's sum it up with my broad leading GDP indicator - 2023 should get very ugly.

[ISABELNET @ISABELNET_SA]

🇺🇸 Recession

The Economic Output Composite Index and the LEI are screaming that a US recession is around the corner
👉 https://t.co/m11iBkSWhc

h/t @LanceRoberts #markets #economy #recession
#recessions #LEI #growth #USeconomy #economics #investing

[Alf @MacroAlf]

ECB day!

The most important decision today is not by how much they hike or signal they'll hike going forward

But rather how the ECB plans to tackle the Eurozone collateral scarcity issue

German bonds (AAA collateral) command a high premium to other money market instruments

👇

[ISABELNET @ISABELNET_SA]

🇺🇸 Earnings

Should investors expect a significant decline in earnings growth?
👉 https://t.co/3SVJ18RESn

h/t @MorganStanley #markets #investing #earnings #EPS
#sp500 $spx #spx $spy #stocks #stockmarket #equities

[Kantro @MichaelKantro]

Great example why nobody should find comfort in “strong/solid/firm/ok coincident or lagging indicators today.

Moreover, every series that lead PMIs is pointing 👇for 12m. We call those anticipatory series.

Know which macro data lead and which are irrelevant. #macro #HOPE