Alban Shehu

[PlanB @100trillionUSD]

Bitcoin price is currently best estimated by bitcoin difficulty (proxy for bitocin production cost), not S2F, not "powerlaw", but dificulty.

[Marc @mrcpto]

Warum hat in 17 Jahren niemand #Bitcoin gehackt? Nicht, weil es keiner versucht hätte.

Tausende haben es versucht.

Jeder einzelne Angriff deckte Schwachstellen auf, die Entwickler sofort schlossen. Das Netzwerk lernte aus jedem Versuch und kam stärker zurück. Was Bitcoin zerstören sollte, wurde zu seiner besten Werbung.

Der eigentliche Grund liegt aber in den Anreizen.

Wer am Netzwerk mitarbeitet, steigert den Wert seiner eigenen Coins. Einige der frühen Entwickler wurden allein dadurch so vermögend, dass sie ihre freiwillige Arbeit zum Hauptberuf machen konnten.

Ein Angreifer dagegen müsste Milliarden an Hardware und Energie verbrennen, für einen Angriff, dessen Erfolg genau das Vermögen zerstören würde, das er dabei erbeuten will.

Die Hashrate ist die Rechenleistung, die das Netzwerk absichert, und damit der Preis, den ein Angreifer überbieten müsste. Sie stieg durch jeden Crash und jedes Verbot hindurch auf immer neue Hochs, weil ehrliches Mining profitabel ist. Jeder neue Teilnehmer macht den Angriff teurer.

Deshalb arbeiten die fähigsten Entwickler und Sicherheitsexperten der Welt für Bitcoin statt gegen es. Ein Angriff ist ökonomisch irrational, ein Beitrag zum Netzwerk wird belohnt.

Woran fragile Systeme zerbrechen, davon ernährt sich Bitcoin.

[Alban Shehu @Alban71AS]

@bruceflorian Die Höhepunkte der Zyklen haben sich verschoben. Die 100K die 2021 erwartet wurden kamen erst Ende 24, die 180K die letztes Jahr nicht kamen werden womöglich erst 2028 kommen, oder Anfang 29. Daher muss auch die untere Linie in jedem neuen Zyklus nach unten korrigiert werden.

[Frank Schäffler @f_schaeffler]

Bitcoin ist strukturell Gold, nicht Aktie. Und genau so behandelt das deutsche Steuerrecht es seit Jahren: als privates Veräußerungsgeschäft nach Paragraf 23 EStG, mit Haltefrist, wie beim Verkauf von Edelmetallen. Wer Bitcoin gezielt aus dieser Systematik herauslösen will, bekommt ein Problem mit Artikel 3 GG. Der allgemeine Gleichheitssatz verbietet die Ungleichbehandlung wesentlich gleicher Sachverhalte. Das Bundesverfassungsgericht hat in seiner Pendlerpauschalen-Entscheidung 2008 klargestellt: Wer eine steuerrechtliche Grundentscheidung trifft, muss sie folgerichtig durchhalten. Ausnahmen bedürfen eines besonderen sachlichen Grundes – der rein fiskalische Zweck der Einnahmenerhöhung genügt ausdrücklich nicht.

https://t.co/3CK6rqua9a

[Giovanni's BTC_POWER_LAW @Giovann35084111]

By the way, there is a deep irony here that most people miss.

Gold is rare for a very fundamental reason. In the normal life cycle of a star, elements can only be fused up to iron. Beyond iron, fusion no longer releases energy. It consumes energy. That breaks the delicate balance inside the star between gravity pulling inward and radiation pressure pushing outward.

As long as fusion produces energy, the star can sustain itself. But once it builds up iron in its core, that process stops. The star can no longer support itself, gravity takes over, and the core collapses. What follows is a catastrophic event: a supernova. Depending on the original mass, what remains is a neutron star or a black hole.

In that violent collapse and explosion, extreme conditions emerge. Temperatures and pressures become so high that heavy elements like gold can finally be formed. It is not a gentle, continuous process. It is explosive, rare, and energetically expensive. Gold is born in a brief, chaotic “soup” of radiation and nuclear reactions during these events.

This is, in a very real sense, nature’s proof of work.

An enormous amount of energy must be expended to create something that is intrinsically scarce and difficult to produce. That is precisely why gold has value. Its rarity is not arbitrary. It is physically enforced by the laws of nuclear physics and stellar evolution.

Bitcoin follows an analogous principle. It forces the expenditure of real-world energy to create new units. This is not waste. It is the mechanism that anchors scarcity in reality.

So when @PeterSchiff claims that using energy to secure a monetary system is pointless, they are ignoring the fundamental fact that the value of gold itself is rooted in the same principle. The energy cost is not a flaw. It is the foundation.

[Alban Shehu @Alban71AS]

@olvelez007 Hi Oliver, I hope you are doing great. I saw your video about trading the first 20 min and wanted to know more about it. Greetings from Germany, Alban.

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

The Rules of Bitcoin
1. Buy Bitcoin
2. Don't Sell the Bitcoin

[Peter Girnus 🦅 @gothburz]

I'm a Reserve Manager at a central bank.

My job is buying gold.

297 tons this year.

Quietly.

While we print money.

Loudly.

Gold hit $5,000 an ounce yesterday.

We've been buying since it was $1,800.

That's called "reserve diversification."

Diversification means we don't trust our own currency.

But we can't say that.

So we say "diversification."

The Governor went on television last month.

He said inflation is "anchored."

Anchored means 6%.

Used to mean 2%.

We moved the anchor.

That's monetary policy.

He said the currency is "sound."

Sound means losing 20% of its value.

Per year.

But it sounds sound.

That's what matters.

We bought 45 tons in November.

Poland bought 95 tons.

Brazil bought 43.

China reports 1 ton.

China is lying.

We all know.

Nobody says it.

95% of central banks plan to buy more gold next year.

That's a survey.

We surveyed ourselves.

On whether we trust ourselves.

We don't.

We trust gold.

Citizens ask why prices keep rising.

We say "supply chains."

We say "external factors."

We don't say "we printed 40% of all money in existence since 2020."

That's not external.

That's us.

The Finance Minister asked if gold is a hedge against our own policies.

I said "gold is a strategic reserve asset."

Strategic means yes.

I just can't say yes.

Gold is $5,000 now.

Our currency buys less every day.

Our gold buys more.

That's the strategy.

For us.

Not for you.

You get the currency.

We get the gold.

That's central banking.

[William Wallets ⚔️ @williamwallets8]

The traditional financial world is currently witnessing a tectonic shift that most people (even seasoned Bitcoiners) are still trying to categorize. We are moving past the era of buying Bitcoin and into the era of the Bitcoin Credit Factory. At the heart of this transformation is @saylor and the evolution of @Strategy into a Digital Capital Engine. While many self proclaimed Bitcoin purists argue that holding spot Bitcoin is the only way to play this game, the sheer mathematical gravity of what $MSTR is doing with products like $STRC is forcing a reevaluation of how we understand value in a digital age.

To understand the magnitude of the squeeze being engineered, we have to look at the protocol’s current physical limitations. Every single day, the global network of miners produces exactly 450 Bitcoin. This is an unchangeable, cryptographic law. In a typical week, the world sees a fresh supply of 3,150 BTC. Yet, last week, $MSTR vacuumed up 13,627 BTC, more than $1.25 billion worth. Saylor isn't just a buyer, he is a black hole. He is consistently consuming over four times the global weekly production of the world’s most scarce asset. When one entity systematically outpaces the entire production capacity of a global network, the supply and demand conversation shifts from a theoretical economic principle to a mathematical certainty of price discovery.

$STRC is a perpetual preferred stock that functions as a high-yield instrument for institutional capital that would otherwise never touch a volatile asset like Bitcoin. It creates a Bitcoin Yield Curve by offering investors a fixed income like experience, but the capital raised from those investors is immediately converted into Bitcoin.

This is a recursive loop:
Saylor borrows fiat from the world of legacy finance to buy the very asset that is devaluing that fiat. He is essentially front-running the global debasement of currency by using the tools of the old system to secure the lifeblood of the new one.

This leads us to the critical metric of mNAV, the ratio of the company’s market value to its net asset value. There is a common misconception that a massive premium is always better for the company. In reality, the longer the mNAV stays close to 1, the more lethal this strategy becomes for the shorts and the more beneficial it is for long-term holders. When the stock trades near its actual Bitcoin value, the acquisition of new coins is perfectly accretive. Every dollar raised and every share issued translates directly into more Bitcoin-per-share for the existing holders. It allows the "Credit Factory" to run at maximum efficiency without the froth that leads to speculative exhaustion.

For the Bitcoiner who insists on self-custody only, it is time to recognize $MSTR for what it actually is: an institutional grade weapon. By absorbing the daily mined supply and then some, Saylor is stripping the market of liquidity. He is taking the sell side pressure off the board permanently. Whether you hold your keys in a cold wallet or hold $MSTR in a brokerage account, you are riding the same wave of absolute scarcity.

We are in the middle of a massive migration of capital where the speed of the Monster has officially surpassed the speed of the miners. The window to get long before the supply shock truly hits is closing, and the math doesn't care about anyone’s bias.

In @saylor we trust🍊

[Peter R Hann CFA, Goldbug Weirdo/Silver Freak @PeterRHann1]

I was planning on another long post about Silver, but I am somewhat burned out TBH.

So just a few things.

1. There is a physical shortage.

For the last 5 years, demand for physical is exceeded actual silver mined. It's not from retail hoarding coins. It's industrial users. When countries starting pushing EV mandates, whether it cars, solar panels etc, it ratcheted up demand for silver. That is how I really got turned on to silver instead of Gold back in 2020 when the Biden admin started serious pushing a "green" initiative. Imagine my surprise when Rostum Behnam "Tamped Down" on the January 2021 squeeze and Silver was held below $30 for the next 3 years.

That's when I seriously stopped looking at the Macro story and delved into the Bullion banks spoofing, borrowing from SLV to smash silver in illiquid times, the underperformance of PSLV because Wall Street shorted it to force Sprott to unload physical silver. Which then got me wondering, why is Wall Street so desperate for physical. Which drew me to China using the suppressed prices to move physical to Shanghai from London.

Which lead me to why China wanted silver so much (aside from historical reasons) and that lead me to see videos where solar panel farms are being put all over Chinese deserts.

I am old enough to remember the commodity spike in 2004-7 when China stockpiled materials ahead of the Beijing Olympics. It's one reason I in 2004 I called USD/CAD going to par and it reached it in 2007.

Well, what's happening now just isn't a repeat of that demand. Its more strategic this time given promotion of the BRIC's, the trade wars, the critical mineral controls. And I am still gob smacked the US just sat by for the last two decades and let China drain away silver and Gold stocks. Epic fail.

Anyway, back to the core topic. Demand exceeds supply and so then people will say, at $80 bucks people will recycle silver and it will flood in.

Ok. (a) Silver used for industry is not easy to recycle. Medical uses..nope, to small and expensive. Same with what's in phones. Car components..eh..maybe small amounts. Solar panels..those things have 20 year life cycles apparently.

So that leaves Mom's silverware and Dad's junk silver.

Except, a lot of that was handed in in 1980 and then in 2011. What's left is still at a backlog because there are not enough silver refiners. They are backlogged.

So, it will take years for supply from recycling to even contribute significantly to supply.

New mines? Most Silver is a by product from copper and zinc. You want more silver, you need copper high enough to get more copper extracted.

There are principal silver mines, but the mines in Mexico and South America are largely played out, takes money to get to the deeper stuff.

But Citadel has made a habit of shorting silver juniors so funding has been made very difficult.

But ok, say the mines can get the funding, it still takes years to get 100% operational and sending ore out consistently.

In the meantime, new demand is arising from players like Samsung and their Solid state EV battery.

So to everyone looking at RSI's and saying silver is going to reverse in a week and crash below 50, you just don't get the fundamental story is changing. This is a real physical supply shortage, and plus with Gold being bid by continued concern over fiat debasement, that will only reinforce the silver bid

There, and that was a short TED talk on Silver.

[WhitePillAnon @nonAlliPetihW]

@Dominik_Kettner Bank of America verliert mit jedem $/oz mehr auf Silber 800 Mio $. Der Preis stieg in den letzten um 25$.😉
Bleibt zu hoffen, dass Metalle das Zentralbanksystem in Privathand beenden & wir endlich Geld bekommen, das auf Werten basiert, nicht auf Schulden.

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

🚨MICHAEL SAYLOR WILL BE THE WORLD’S RICHEST MAN AND THERE IS NOTHING YOU CAN DO ABOUT IT🚨

Listen up, snowflakes and haters:

Strategy is already the APEX PREDATOR of global markets, and anyone who denies it is basically volunteering to be audited by reality.

The company sits on 649,870 BTC at eighty eight thousand a coin, and the people whining about “valuation risk” are trying to fight a curve that has a twenty year track record of vaporizing every asset class that isn’t Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has held a 30 to 40 percent decade-long CAGR through multiple cycles, multiple crashes, multiple interest rate regimes, multiple global panics, and multiple IQ collapses on CNBC.

Especially from that heavily medicated goat farmer, Jim Cramer.

Now imagine that compounding for twenty years while Strategy keeps absorbing sats like a corporate event horizon.

Start with the coward’s assumption.

Use 20 percent CAGR for twenty years.

That puts Bitcoin at roughly 3.7 million dollars. Multiply that by 649,870.

Strategy’s balance sheet becomes 2.4 trillion dollars without issuing a single new convert.

That is already bigger than Apple’s current market cap.

And that is the coward scenario. That is the scenario where Bitcoin performs worse than any ten year window in its history.

That is the “let’s pretend the laws of monetary physics suddenly stopped working” scenario.

Now use the historically consistent 30 percent CAGR. Two decades at that rate puts Bitcoin near 29 million dollars.

Strategy’s stash alone becomes 18.8 trillion dollars, which is more than the GDP of China and more than the combined market caps of Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Berkshire, Saudi Aramco, and every boomer stock your uncle tells you to buy because “it has a dividend.”

Strategy’s balance sheet becomes the global reserve asset. Not metaphorically.

Literally.

Corporations and sovereigns will be benchmarking against a software company that turned into a Bitcoin vacuum cleaner.

Now use the actual power-law slope around 40 percent CAGR, the one Bitcoin has followed since before most TradFi analysts were even aware it existed.

Twenty years at that rate puts Bitcoin near 145 million dollars a coin. Strategy’s stash becomes 94 trillion dollars.

That is not a typo.

That is a number big enough to make central banks look like flea markets.

At that scale Strategy is not the most valuable company on earth.

Strategy is the GRAVITATIONAL CENTER of the global economy.

Apple is a rounding error. Nvidia is a thrift store.

Berkshire is a retirement scrapbook.

Every ETF becomes an annex of Strategy’s market cap. The S&P 500 would need therapy just to cope with the rebalancing.

And here is the funniest part. Saylor only owns about eight percent of the common stock while controlling nearly half the voting power, so his personal net worth scales with a twenty year BTC supertrend while he maintains complete strategic control.

At 3.7 million Bitcoin he becomes a multi hundred billionaire.

At 29 million Bitcoin he becomes a trillionaire.

At 145 million Bitcoin he becomes a geopolitical category.

Every government official who mocked him is suddenly taking meetings with his assistant’s assistant, begging for a credit window.

There is no mechanism on earth that stops this.

The critics would need to repeal human nature, shut down monetary expansion, resurrect demographic growth, eliminate sovereign debt, end technological adoption, dismantle the halving cycle, and convince Saylor to stop pressing buy.

These are people who struggle to keep their checking accounts above zero. They are not derailing a twenty year power law.

So yes, Strategy becomes the most valuable company in the world.

Not by a little.

By margins so obscene regulators will need support groups.

And the haters will still be on the internet yelling about dilution while the largest corporation in human history quietly adds another thousand Bitcoin before lunch.

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

Every fiat currency in human history has collapsed in purchasing power.

Every single one.

The historical failure rate is over 99 percent.

People act like this is controversial.

It is the most documented trend in economics:

• The US dollar lost over 98 percent of its purchasing power since 1913

• The British pound lost over 99 percent of its purchasing power since its peak

• The Japanese yen lost over 95 percent since 1970

• The euro already lost about 40 percent since 1999

• Argentina has had five currency collapses in 100 years

• Zimbabwe nuked its currency by 35 quadrillion percent

• The French franc died after eight redesigns

• The Italian lira had inflation so bad they gave up and
joined the euro

• The Roman denarius went through a 700-year dilution death spiral

Look at the global scoreboard.

Out of roughly 179 fiat currencies, over 170 are dead.

Hyperinflated, abandoned, redenominated, or wiped out completely.

The survivors only exist because their governments force them to.

Their purchasing power still collapses every year.

The decay never stops.

You can pretend your savings are safe in government paper, or you can acknowledge the obvious.

Every fiat experiment ends the same way.

Bitcoin is the answer to this purchasing power debasement.

Every government currency is built to decay.

Choose the thing that does not require trust in politicians who cannot balance a checkbook.

Fiat loses value. Bitcoin does not.

History is not subtle.

[Alban Shehu @Alban71AS]

@BillyBoone32 That would be great to have...

[Alban Shehu @Alban71AS]

@DiamondNutsGuy Anything

[Documenting Saylor @saylordocs]

Michael Saylor releases video explaining why Bitcoin is the best asset you can own.

"If you're going to outperform, you're gonna need Bitcoin."

[Alban Shehu @Alban71AS]

@abudonkweb3 Of course.

[Luke Broyles @luke_broyles]

2010 "50 Bitcoin is literally nothing"
2014 "25 Bitcoin isn't much"
2017 "12.5 Bitcoin isn't life changing"
2021 "6.25 Bitcoin shouldn't be sneezed at"
2028 "1.56 Bitcoin is a big deal"
2039 "0.39 Bitcoin is life changing"
2062 "0.006 Bitcoin is generational wealth"
2097 "0.00001 Bitcoin is priceless"
2121 "0.00000018 Bitcoin is ∞"