Aleatoric FC

Probabilistic football signals for serious bettors. Public and 0 trust track record. Waitlist coming. ⚽🎲

[Aleatoric FC @AleatoricFC]

@Doradobetting How is this for transparency? https://t.co/BkTBIzJTwO

[Aleatoric FC @AleatoricFC]

@winnerodds 😂

[Aleatoric FC @AleatoricFC]

@WillWhiteBets @NeilMac555 Appreciate you coming back. It is indeed a hard game, I doubt that there is an easy mode 😆
And yes, past performance does not guarantee future wins. In any case, what is your advice to someone just getting started?

[Aleatoric FC @AleatoricFC]

26 consecutive profitable years with I guess 126K bets* is proof enough of an edge. 41 bets is not, my question on Kelly VS flat is to evaluate what type of variance you are dealing with. It is not an obsession, it is a sensible question to make to someone claiming an edge.
As per mine, you can check yourself (link in my bio to my public, 0 trust track record). As of now I am down quite a bit, but my entire history is 44 bets, again, low sample size and given that I use fractional Kelly stacking, high variance.
Maybe copy my tracing method so I should not have to trust your words but just the maths and the code.

[Aleatoric FC @AleatoricFC]

@SPAINsider How do you calculate your probabilities to know if a bet is well priced?

[Aleatoric FC @AleatoricFC]

@akinidaddy @fc_mossman The human element I guess?

[Aleatoric FC @AleatoricFC]

Expected value says bet the lot. Kelly refuses.

Put zero on an outcome that can still happen and your growth rate isn't low. It's minus infinity.

Ruin isn't a bad outcome. It's an infinite one.

Worst day so far: -3.4%. Still here.

Would you ever put the lot on a 90% shot?

[Aleatoric FC @AleatoricFC]

@PlusEVAnalytics True! Proof of stake becomes possible. Skin in the game is provable. I wish their service was available in the EU

[Pinnacle @Pinnacle]

ICYMI: a detailed breakdown on how the transfer window can impact betting markets from @GarethWheeler and @JAKEOZZ on Pinnacle FC ⤵️

[Aleatoric FC @AleatoricFC]

@ValueBetFactory Is this effect caused by what is called “sharp money”? Or is distributed and the “knowledge of the masses” is getting sharper by sheer numbers in f people betting closer to closing line? This is a genuine question by the way, really curious

[Pinnacle @Pinnacle]

A statement on prediction markets & API access from Pinnacle:

[Aleatoric FC @AleatoricFC]

@javierlopeix Exacto! Acertar un resultado no es capturar valor esperado (+EV).
El margen de la casa define el umbral.
Un acierto sin +EV es ruido estadístico.

[Aleatoric FC @AleatoricFC]

@NeilMac555 Four games is a small sample size.
It doesn't prove long-term sustainability.

[Aleatoric FC @AleatoricFC]

@NeilMac555 Four matches is a small sample size.
Variance remains high.
Tottenham won the first 10 in Ange’s first year of I remember correctly ^^

[Hudl Statsbomb @Statsbomb]

Hudl Statsbomb's HOPS Model Explained

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Read more:
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[Aleatoric FC @AleatoricFC]

@12Xpert Waw! Reading your feedback just made my week. Thank you so much! And yeah, maybe John Nash was onto something other than game theory.

[Aleatoric FC @AleatoricFC]

@12Xpert @PlusEVAnalytics, you are the kings around here about the subject, what do you think?

[Aleatoric FC @AleatoricFC]

I couldn't help it. The original paper on the Kelly Criterion is too poetic to just get past it. I had to write about it.
After a few weeks of struggling to fully understand it, here is my best attempt to do it justice: https://t.co/z88AFZFalg