🚨 $SPX IS ONE ALL-TIME HIGH AWAY FROM EXIT
Shiller CAPE: 39.46
Only one year in 140 years of market history was pricier. That year was right before dot-com collapse
Everyone sees a bull market
I see fakeout №2
Remember fakeout №1, so you know how this movie ends
February 2025: $SPX melts up to a rounded top near 6,100
April 2: "Liberation Day" tariffs hit
Peak to trough: roughly -21%. Low near 4,835
By June 27: fully recovered. New all-time high
Same setup is back. Same shape. Happening right now
$SPX has printed 20+ all-time highs in 2026 alone
Forward P/E: 22. Only two other times in 40 years has it been this rich - dot-com top and COVID
That's not a coincidence. That's a pattern
Here's problem
- Same melt-up
- Same low volatility
- Same crowd piling into same handful of AI mega-caps
And there's more
Cracks are already showing. Nasdaq slipped to start July while Dow struggled just to hold its record
Rounding top is forming right now, near ~7,500
That's fakeout №2, live
Let that sink in
Insiders and funds don't need a crash to sell. They just need one more all-time high to sell into
If this plays out like fakeout №1 did, path looks like this:
$7,500 → $6,900 → $6,300 → ~$6,000
That's an ~18% drop in next few months. Not a hedge. A call
You're either positioning for it now - or you're retail buyer holding top when it breaks
I called 2025 $BTC ATH and drop to $60k. This is next one on my radar
Turn on notifications. You'll want to be early on this one
$IYT transports continue to make new record highs. I've yet to see broader indices top when transports continue to lead. So any move lower in $SPY $QQQ is likely only a correction and not indicative of a long term top.
Also $NYA the NYSE composite is within spitting distance of new record highs. Rare to see the market top without NYSE breaking down first
*NFA