I’ve moved to @RowanStreetCap.
That’s where I share all my investment research, portfolio updates, and long-term investment insights.
Hope to see you there.
As in 2022, we believe the gap between price and value has widened. Our response is the same — stay focused on the business and let time do the work.
Full write-up 👇
https://t.co/opsqI0PTdf
Views my own. Not investment advice. Past performance not indicative of future results.
Back in 2022, $META market cap shed $750 billion in a single year.
I published a piece asking: does this make any sense?
My answer was no.
What followed was one of the great business re-ratings of the past decade.
I believe certain elements of that dynamic may be present today.🧵
Zuckerberg isn’t part of the program.
He already owns 13% of the company.
His alignment is structural, not contractual.
This is not the behavior of a management team building something temporary.
People really undervalue how insanely lucky we are to live in the same era as Elon Musk.
Taken together his companies are the modern equivalent of founding Ford, Standard Oil, Bell Labs, NASA, and Boeing at the same time.
- Electric vehicles at global scale with Tesla. - Reusable rockets and space infrastructure with SpaceX. - Brain computer interfaces with Neuralink. - Frontier AI with xAI.
This is industrial history happening in real time. He’s the 10x Rockefeller of our generation except instead of consolidating industries he’s building multiple foundational businesses of the next century.
Most generations never get to watch someone rebuild multiple foundational industries from scratch. We get to complain about tweets and politics while living through the equivalent of the second industrial revolution.
History will be very kind here. We should probably appreciate it while it is still unfolding.
To achieve a multi-bagger in the portfolio, you have to hold a multi-bagger in the portfolio.
You will have to hold while the stock 2-3-4x in a year.
You will have to hold as the stock eventually pulls back 50% from its highs.
You will have to hold as the stock goes nowhere for months, quarters, maybe years, as fundamentals backfill into the stock price.
You will have to hold as expectations get too high or management has some eventual growing pains.
You will have to hold when it's cheap, expensive, loved, hated and volatile - sometimes all in the same year.
You will have to hold while your emotions are screaming at you to sell.
But what makes it even more difficult is very few will deserve to be held through all of this.
Most of the companies you own today only deserve to be rented. Ownership is earned.
https://t.co/MfxGcobRS3