Alexander Tarascio

Global political strategist | Pollster at @Cygnal | Past life: @IRIGlobal & @KevinOMcCarthy | Dad to Nell | That’s my American Bulldog Roosevelt ⬆️

[Alexander Tarascio @alextarascio]

But among white women, 18-44, who identify as liberal? The number shoots up to 61% who agree and half that number (30%) who disagree.

[Alexander Tarascio @alextarascio]

This ad is a choice.

1) Middle aged white people don’t discuss Gaza in the grocery store over bananas.
2) Did Al Sayed’s campaign think it hadn’t been clear enough about where it stood on Israel? What’s this for?

[girth brooks @HOWDYBlTCH]

“For they/them” took me tf out I still don’t trust any politicians but I don’t think a political ad has ever made me laugh in earnest like that before

[Alexander Tarascio @alextarascio]

Read it here:
https://t.co/SFTKNvKX1b

[Alexander Tarascio @alextarascio]

78% of Democrats say Israel has the right to defend itself. But only 53% support Israel's right to exist at all. Rejecting a country’s existence should be the bigger step, but not for Democrats.

@OrYissachar and I wrote it up in @realDailyWire.

[Alexander Tarascio @alextarascio]

@MichaelRWarren @McCormackJohn @thedispatch Great interview. This is why I am skeptical about independent as much more than political branding

[Alexander Tarascio @alextarascio]

Most independents aren’t centrists. We asked them. 30% lean right, 25% lean left, and 41% say they’re truly middle of the road. Got into this last night on The Group Chat on @2waytvapp with John Opdycke talking about McConaughey's video.

[Alexander Tarascio @alextarascio]

@adamscochran If he was being blackmailed, the only possible conclusion is that he continued pursuing the deaths of America’s enemies despite attempts to silence him.

[Alexander Tarascio @alextarascio]

Adam Cochran thinks Lindsey Graham was being blackmailed by America's adversaries. That's because Adam is a very stupid person and disrespects his audience's intellect.

Lindsey Graham's primary political goal was to see America's enemies dead. Lindsey Graham believed that more dead Russian soldiers was good for America. He believed more dead IRGC members was good for America. He believed sending Venezuelan drug runners to the bottom of the ocean kept America safer. He fought for stronger American alliances and pushed those allies behind the scenes to understand how to talk to a skeptical Republican Party. Lindsey Graham gave his life to public serivce in a very real and tangible way. He believed in his view of America even when it hurt him politically. The Republican Party, the Senate, and America are worse off for his death.

Adam's assertions about him don't pass a cursory test of logic, and are motivated by wanting to dunk on someone he doesn't like and who can't defend himself.

[Alexander Tarascio @alextarascio]

Adam Cochran thinks Lindsey Graham was being blackmailed by America's adversaries. That's because Adam is a very stupid person and disrespects his audience's intellect.

Lindsey Graham's primary political goal was to see America's enemies dead. Lindsey Graham believed that more dead Russian soldiers was good for America. He believed more dead IRGC members was good for America. He believed sending Venezuelan drug runners to the bottom of the ocean kept America safer. He fought for stronger American alliances and pushed those allies behind the scenes to understand how to talk to a skeptical Republican Party. Lindsey Graham gave his life to public serivce in a very real and tangible way. He believed in his view of America even when it hurt him politically. The Republican Party, the Senate, and America are worse off for his death.

Adam's assertions about him don't pass a cursory test of logic, and are motivated by wanting to dunk on someone he doesn't like and who can't defend himself.

[Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) @adamscochran]

1/10

This is FAR more dark than you realize…

We all knew Lindsey Graham was gay.

That’s not the problem.

The problem is he paid male escorts, including a minor, for sex, and was apparently filmed doing so.

That blackmail obviously ended up in the hands of foreign adversaries.

[Alexander Tarascio @alextarascio]

@seanmdav The garbage people who did this probably applauded when Graham pushed for more US support for Ukraine and Israel. But that doesn’t matter at all to them. Neither past agreement nor death need hinder using him to score political points.

[Alexander Tarascio @alextarascio]

@billybinion Its public desecration of a dead man whose defining characteristic was his hatred of America’s enemies. Putting this out serves no public interest. It’s petty and gross.

[Alexander Tarascio @alextarascio]

@frontierism This is coming from the same party tightly clutching its pearls over an attack ad in Ohio. What does this add to the political discourse? Who gains from attacking a dead man?

[Alexander Tarascio @alextarascio]

@annakhachiyan It’s rare, but not hard to find examples of family members bashing their office-seeking relatives. Paul Gosar’s siblings in 2018. RFK Jr.’s siblings in 2024. Just another type of negative ad, but it says more about Vivek’s campaign team than Vivek.

[Alexander Tarascio @alextarascio]

@McConaughey You paint a picture of an independent as a moderate, or at least a moderating force in our politics. That sounds attractive, but the data says something different about who Indies are their priorities.

[Alexander Tarascio @alextarascio]

Most independents aren’t centrists. We asked them. 30% lean right, 25% lean left, and 41% say they’re truly middle of the road. Got into this last night on The Group Chat on @2waytvapp with John Opdycke talking about McConaughey's video.

[Alexander Tarascio @alextarascio]

Claiming the center is fashionable branding for someone on the left who doesn’t like the Democrat label, but wants to signal they have mainstream views. Swing voters are real. But independents change constantly based on party popularity and who is in power.

Independents have every right to participate should have a voice. But what McConaughey is describing looks to me like another flavor of voting left, without owning the messiness and baggage of running a political party. Not a real third party.

Thanks again to @MarkHalperin and for having me on.

[Alexander Tarascio @alextarascio]

Centrists are the biggest group of Indies, and they're voting D by net +41 (62-21). 27% of centrists are Trump '24 voters, vs. 46% Harris. Truly middle of the road should land closer to even, but there's a clear partisan preference here.

[Alexander Tarascio @alextarascio]

Here's how they vote next to Rs and Ds. The generic ballot is rough for Republicans right now (52-43 Dem). Both flavors of Republican are locked in. Right-leaning independents are (66-21). They have a definite partisan preference, but they're unhappy. A third aren't voting R.

The left side looks different. Progressive and traditional Ds are even more locked in - 97-98% voting Democratic. D-leaning independents are at 93%. No wavering here. These D-lean Indies look like Democrats, in contrast to R-lean Indies.

[Alexander Tarascio @alextarascio]

Most independents aren’t centrists. We asked them. 30% lean right, 25% lean left, and 41% say they’re truly middle of the road. Got into this last night on The Group Chat on @2waytvapp with John Opdycke talking about McConaughey's video.

[Oren Cass @oren_cass]

Commonplace's October issue is here -- incredible work by the editorial team producing what has already become the must-read conservative magazine.

This month, the Election Issue, has:

➡️@DrewHolden360 on the sad history of undermining faith in the system,

➡️Former FEC chair Tre Trainor @TXElectionLaw and political gurus @AlexTarascio and @ddkochel on the path to restoring confidence, and

➡️@michaelbd on the ill-advised reforms to avoid.

➡️The Hoover Institution's Ben Ginsberg, national counsel to the Bush-Cheney '00 and '04 campaigns, joins the podcast to discuss what he calls the Fraud-Suppression Industrial Complex and the actual challenges with running clean elections.

Features include:

➡️@AmberLappOH reporting from Springfield, Ohio
➡️@EvieSolheim reporting from the 2026 Women's Convention in Seneca Falls, New York
➡️@Jason_Mangone reporting on volunteer firefighting from Pasadena, Texas
➡️@ChrisChimy explaining the H-1B visa crackdown

And there's:

➡️Gail Slater on AI and Antitrust
➡️@chris_griz on President Trump's $5,000 promise
➡️@SkylerAdleta on Gen Z's Blue-Collar Boom
➡️Brad Littlejohn on the dangers of artificial relationships
➡️and yours truly with a Midterms Exam

If there's a better table of contents than @commonplc in the country this month, DM me -- I'd certainly want to read that too.

[Drew Holden @DrewHolden360]

At @commonplc, we’re live with our second issue of the magazine, focused on Elections.

Link threaded below to excellent pieces from @AmberLappOH, @TXElectionLaw, @alextarascio and @ddkochel, @EvieSolheim, @SkylerAdleta, and many more.

[Alexander Tarascio @alextarascio]

This is a good ad because Hamilton sounds unthreatened and confident. A voter who isn't sure about him gets the impression he can hold his own in a room where he's in the minority.

Just like in Iowa, the candidates are treating swing voters like the whole ball game.

[Adam Hamilton @Hamilton4Kansas]

Welcome to Kansas, Mr. President.

[Alexander Tarascio @alextarascio]

@AlecLace @realtoriabrooke @RSBNetwork My wife sent this to me. I think it’s a good thing, but also means I’m net ~20 points unfavorable.

[Alexander Tarascio @alextarascio]

Every cycle there are a couple of races where personal family dynamics bubble up. Echoes here of the hit piece against Paul Gosar in Arizona where they got his siblings to all film a video against him.

[Erikaaa @ErikaCA47]

Whoa. Amy Acton’s (D-Ohio) mother has come out in a potential ad against her own daughter. 🤯

Calling her a liar and saying Amy never grew up in a tent.

Brutal. Amy Acton does need help that’s for sure.