Alison Hayden 賀亞珊🇺🇸 fmr. CA-14 vs.Eric Swalwell

Special Ed Teacher #AmericaFirst after God #Constitutionalist #FamilyFirst #ElectionValidity #Borders #Jobs #ParentRights

[Alison Hayden 賀亞珊🇺🇸 fmr. CA-14 vs.Eric Swalwell @Alison4Congress]

@KBalu238389771 @GuntherEagleman Bianco is and has served California for his entire life. Hilton is still a Brit sidelining for political power in California

[Insurrection Barbie @DefiyantlyFree]

Thank you to all the Chad Bianco voters that are still out voting right now. Chad and the Posse send you their love from headquarters.

Tonight is one more step in the journey toward saving California, and making America safe, strong and great again!

Chad Bianco for Governor 🇺🇸

[Alison Hayden 賀亞珊🇺🇸 fmr. CA-14 vs.Eric Swalwell @Alison4Congress]

@redpillb0t Sounds like a round about way to say bye bye to the First Amendment.

[Alison Hayden 賀亞珊🇺🇸 fmr. CA-14 vs.Eric Swalwell @Alison4Congress]

@Chicago1Ray They Gotta GO!

[@Chicago1Ray 🇺🇸 @Chicago1Ray]

TREASON 🚨

What kind of Majority leader says he doesn't know if he's got the votes to pass Trumps anti- weaponization bill

I'm calling on my MAGA friends to primary everyone who's standing at that podium

We are going to rid ourselves of these traitors

[DataRepublican (small r) @DataRepublican]

I am going to keep repeating this until people understand this.

Karen Bass was not only a Castro operative and Communist, but she got elevated to Vice Chair of National Endowment for Democracy, which is the center of soft power operations in the US government. She is not a "DEI mayor." She is extremely powerful at the global stage.

She was actively involved in shaping foreign policy with the Obama administration, especially Africa. Her Ghana visit during the LA wildfires wasn't a vacation, it was part of a Biden delegate to greet Ghana's new President.

She was considered HUD Secretary for the Biden administration. Instead, she nominated the person who would become the actual HHS Secretary - California Attorney General Xavier Becerra.

Now, let me ask you. If a literal Castro operative gets elevated to this stage, what does this imply about the rest of the United States government?

[Alison Hayden 賀亞珊🇺🇸 fmr. CA-14 vs.Eric Swalwell @Alison4Congress]

@JustTheNews @jsolomonReports @AmandaHead @dojphofficial Why aren’t the nationalities of these smugglers “foreign researchers” reported?

[Alison Hayden 賀亞珊🇺🇸 fmr. CA-14 vs.Eric Swalwell @Alison4Congress]

@WHLeavitt AAAAAAAAAA
Is it possible to take away his citizenship as an enemy of the State?

[Alison Hayden 賀亞珊🇺🇸 fmr. CA-14 vs.Eric Swalwell @Alison4Congress]

@draloneboy They are so out of the league knowing how to prosper their city with sound economic growth policies and only know to gouge the people.

[𝔉🅰𝒏 Karoline Leavitt @WHLeavitt]

A Muslim woman complained that Japanese people are obsessed with pork. With no halal options in restaurants or supermarkets.

She warned her friends not to come, saying Islam isn’t welcome in Japan.

If we do the same, 90% of Muslims will leave in a month.

Agree?

A. Yes
B. No

[Janie Johnson - America is Exceptional @jjauthor]

Fire @LeaderJohnThune
Fire @LeaderJohnThune
Fire @LeaderJohnThune
Fire @LeaderJohnThune
Fire @LeaderJohnThune
Fire @LeaderJohnThune
Fire @LeaderJohnThune
Fire @LeaderJohnThune
Fire @LeaderJohnThune
Fire @LeaderJohnThune
Fire @LeaderJohnThune
Fire @LeaderJohnThune

[Tropicana46 @AVALL_45]

@LizaRosen0000 @Alison4Congress

[@Chicago1Ray 🇺🇸 @Chicago1Ray]

TREASON 🚨

Good morning to everyone who voted Trump

These two make up the resistance to Trumps agenda in the Senate

Whoever replaces John Thune, must immediately remove Elizabeth Macdonough as the Senate Parliamentarian

Remove them both... this cannot continue

[Insurrection Barbie @DefiyantlyFree]

I’ve held my tongue but it’s literally Election Day and clearly Bianco isn’t dropping out so let’s look at what I like to look at. It’s called evidence.

Why would he drop out of the race two days before the day to vote when his name is already on all the ballots? None of the people who have been voting for weeks will have their votes transferred to Hilton if he were to drop out. Those votes would be lost. It makes no sense.

I really don't like when things don't make sense, so I did a little research.

Hilton has the fundraising edge in theory because Hilton raised $7.1 million through over 18,000 individual contributions.

But, Bianco raised $4.4 million through over 10,000 donors. The key nuance and we all know I love nuance and truth: Hilton’s national media profile allows him to tap conservative donor networks beyond California, giving him a more geographically diversified fundraising base. Bianco remains far more dependent on in-state donors. So Hilton’s money doesn’t translate to votes. 100,000 versus 18,000 is a huge difference in a state race.

Bianco’s support is also anchored in the Inland Empire, Riverside County, and parts of the Central Valley areas with reliable Republican primary participation. Hilton shows strength in Orange County and suburban coastal regions.

The Inland Empire and Central Valley are where California Republicans actually live in large numbers and actually turn out. Orange County suburbanites are more persuadable and less reliable primary voters. Bianco’s geography is the GOP base. Hilton’s is the GOP periphery.

The California Republican Assembly endorsed Bianco by a two-thirds supermajority of delegates.

Over 45 county sheriffs including Orange County’s Don Barnes, San Bernardino’s Shannon Dicus, Butte County’s Kory Honea, Kern County’s Donny Youngblood, and San Francisco’s Paul Miyamoto. Also district attorneys Mike Hestrin (Riverside), Vern Pierson (El Dorado), and Dan Dow (San Luis Obispo). PORAC the Peace Officers Research Association of California, the state’s largest public safety organization representing over 86,000 members.

Congressman Darrell Issa, Congressman Ken Calvert, Assembly Republican Leader Heath Flora, Assemblyman Phillip Chen, Assemblyman Joe Patterson, and Assemblyman Tri Ta.

49% of the GOP to 44% of the GOP support Bianco.

Now onto the polling.

Becerra had just 5% support in September 2025, dropped to 3% in March 2026. Then Swalwell dropped out in mid-April and suddenly Becerra jumped 7 points almost immediately. Then he kept climbing 10%, 13%, 19%, 23%, 25%, 28% —all within roughly six weeks.

That is a 25 point jump within five weeks. Before Swalwell entered the race he was at 3%.

When Swalwell was in the race he was polling at roughly 14-17%. When he dropped out, those votes had to go somewhere. The question is why did almost all of them go to Becerra specifically?

The first Emerson poll after Swalwell's exit showed Becerra gaining 15 points among Democrats without Swalwell on the ballot.

But Swalwell only had about 14-17% overall. For Becerra to gain 15 points among Democrats, you'd essentially need every single Swalwell voter plus additional new voters to break for Becerra and nobody else. Steyer only gained 2-3 points. Porter gained almost nothing. That kind of one-sided consolidation in a multi-candidate race is statistically very unusual.

This is the sharpest discrepancy of all. The Cal Poly Pomona poll the only major poll that directly measured voter enthusiasm found:

Bianco voters: 52% very excited
Hilton voters: 48% very excited
Porter voters: 28% very excited
Becerra voters: only 19% very excited
Steyer voters: only 11% very excited

Voter enthusiasm is very telling.

Among California's likely voters as defined by PPIC's own methodology, 47% identify as Democrats, 27% as Republicans, and 24% as independents. That 47-27 split is the foundation every poll is built on. But here's the catch "likely voter" in California polling means "people who voted in recent California elections." Recent California elections have been dominated by Democrats because Republicans have been demoralized and disengaged for years. The moment Republican enthusiasm spikes like right now the model becomes instantly outdated because it's measuring a different electorate than the one that's about to show up.

Pollsters have increasingly found evidence of partisan nonresponse particular types of Republicans are just less likely to take surveys, so these voters' opinions are not reflected in survey data.

Hilton's voters are more likely to be Orange County suburban Republicans, more educated, more coastal the type of Republican who has historically voted in California primaries and therefore shows up in likely voter models. Bianco's voters are Inland Empire, Central Valley, rural conservatives precisely the profile of voters who are chronically under sampled in California polls because they've been most alienated from the process. So even within the Republican undercount problem, Hilton gets overcounted relative to Bianco.

An enthusiasm case study: Ken Paxton

The University of Houston poll had Paxton leading Cornyn by just 3 points 48% to 45% calling it a close race. Paxton defeated Cornyn by 28 points. The pre-election polls pointed to a Paxton victory, but his margin vastly exceeded their estimates.

Finaly democrats want Hilton. They think he's easier to beat in a general that is not disputed.

Democrats have a documented playbook here. They did it in 2024 with Garvey. They knew it worked. And they ran it again.

CNN confirmed that top Democrats were talking to major donors about funding "Greater Golden State," an independent expenditure campaign that the Democratic Governors Association helped set up explicitly designed to boost Hilton's viability.

There was a semi-secret drive underway by Democratic operatives to trumpet Hilton's ties to a very unpopular President Trump, hoping that would spark Republican support for him and boost him into one of the two top finishes thereby avoiding a Democrat-vs-Democrat showdown. This is exactly what happened in the 2024 U.S. Senate race when Democrat Adam Schiff helped Republican Steve Garvey qualify for November, avoiding a faceoff with Democrat Katie Porter.

The Democratic Governors Association sent mailers emphasizing Hilton's conservative credentials essentially running ads FOR a Republican candidate.

Democrats wanted Hilton because they thought they could beat him. They didn't want Bianco because they weren't sure they could. So they ran a covert operation to help Hilton while polls whether deliberately or structurally were simultaneously showing Bianco collapsing.

[Alison Hayden 賀亞珊🇺🇸 fmr. CA-14 vs.Eric Swalwell @Alison4Congress]

Sheriff Bianco is a Californian, a patriot and has SERVED his community for 30 years! Hilton is a Brit who worked with globalist UK PM Cameron

[Shane 𝕏 @ChooseGoodKarma]

“Do not be fooled or swayed by the media or career politicians.

Vote your conscience, vote your values, choose integrity, character and proven leadership over the status quo of politics.”

- Future California Governor, @ChadBianco

[Shane 𝕏 @ChooseGoodKarma]

“Do not be fooled or swayed by the media or career politicians.

Vote your conscience, vote your values, choose integrity, character and proven leadership over the status quo of politics.”

- Future California Governor, @ChadBianco

[@amuse @amuse]

TEXAS SENATE RACE: Recorded sermon catches James Talarico (CIS) comparing unborn children to tapeworms & parasites who should have no legal rights. He claims Christianity is a 'feminist religion' that justifies abortion. This is the 'moderate' Democrat preacher running for Senate. Just say no.

h/t @glennbeck