_ @AllTheWayUp__ - Twitter Profile

Demystifying the $FCEL run $BE was up about 65% the prior week. In part, I think that may have been off the 800V DC hype bc. They can deliver that form of energy natively. I think what happened with $FCEL starting monday was a straight-forward sympathy move. A week ago $BE was 40b and $FCEL was around 400m. On open this monday, that gap was a 65b vs 400m gap. $FCEL also may some configurations that are favorable to this 800V DC, but like everything else it's a bit more convoluted and less straight out the box that $BE. So that could have played some kind of role. So where are we now? $FCEL is ballpark 1% the market cap of $BE. Prior to AI, these company has basically the same level of deployment and were pretty strong peers. $BE obviously hit AI far better out the gates, but I think it is unduly pessimistic to thing $FCEL can't score at least some contracts. Everyone in AI game seems more than willing to sign deals with everyone else. So much ink has been spilled on this all being a giant circlejerk by critics. From that perspective, I really don't see why $FCEL would be the one player left out of the party. In general, I think comping to some outrageous valuation is the worst kind of thesis. Except in very specific situations, which are met here: (a) You actually can't comp $FCEL to anyone else in this case. (b) No major gap close needs to happen. Again, $FCEL could 4x here and it could be maybe 3% the valuation of $BE. In sum, I think we are at maybe inning 2 here and am more than content to let this thing ride. The sweet IV spike is behind us, so I don't have much of a strong opinion on the options. Pretty happy with commons here. On a fundamental basis, I think @BSacamanoV had said nearly all the interesting stuff there is to say. In sum, even though deployment is a bit more of a production, there is actually serious efficiencies and environmental that $FCEL has over $BE in a lot of cases. I think as companies are less focused on simply building out an AI center yesterday, and more focused on five year planning - they are probably gonna be some cases where the deployment differences are not gonna be a deal-breaker. To make it more clear, if you are planning to site to open two-three years out, its don't matter too much is $FCEL power may take a month or two longer or whatever the case may be if it could translate to non-trivial lower power costs over the life of the project. Another unacknowledged trend here is AI centers seeming to need to piggyback with other kinds of existing sites, since breaking ground is getting so much blow-back. I think there this is another case where $FCEL could be a better fit - the hybrid systems where they are capturing from other high polluting sources to fuel $FCEL systems. If you could pitch an AI center as a means of greening an existing industrial or manufacturing area through $FCEL systems, I think that works against the current image of centers destroying farmland, sucking up water, and being across the board drag for energy systems and environment.

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