Wes Gray 🇺🇸

Marine. Ph.D. Dad x3.
RIA/blog/education: label ETF:

[Wes Gray 🇺🇸 @alphaarchitect]

New Post: Why the 351 Exchange Might Revolutionize Investing https://t.co/uAz7xgzX1X

[Wes Gray 🇺🇸 @alphaarchitect]

@DaveNadig @EricBalchunas yes and the brokers have a lot of controls and ways to manage all of that. Not the case in crypto land where that stuff goes on ALL the time. Tradfi has many problems, monopolistic competition in custody/dtcc, etc., but it has also been tested and is incredibly robust.

[Wes Gray 🇺🇸 @alphaarchitect]

@TKopelman wow. an impressive feat for sure!!

[Conks @conksresearch]

new primer just dropped

the SOFR-FF basis

https://t.co/utCW4bD58B

[Wes Gray 🇺🇸 @alphaarchitect]

New Post: Second Chance: Life with Less Student Debt https://t.co/AxjBjehrc6

[Wes Gray 🇺🇸 @alphaarchitect]

@CliffGry Welcome to the adventure!

[Wes Gray 🇺🇸 @alphaarchitect]

@DaveNadig @Bkclaims Si.

[Wes Gray 🇺🇸 @alphaarchitect]

@Bkclaims Yes, not sure there is a proper term. Private etf is a bit of misnomer since u cant really "close" it as a public vehicle, perhaps custom etf ? Or 351 etf? Regardless, and to your point, the demand for any and all tax deferral tools is sky high!

[Wes Gray 🇺🇸 @alphaarchitect]

@choffstein @Perth_Tolle @MebFaber @michael_venuto We update our aa site 1x a year. https://t.co/NvOgOh4Qr4 has daily updates from db. Across etf +sma we are almost 40b. Crazy!

[Wes Gray 🇺🇸 @alphaarchitect]

Want to swap an old portfolio for shares of core U.S. equity without triggering a tax bill?

Join me and @UseCache on 6/11 for a LIVE session on how investors may exchange legacy assets for shares in our latest ETF, the Alpha Architect U.S. Equity 4 ETF ( $AAUB ).

Don’t miss it!

Register: https://t.co/YVAvSKK7TT

Learn more: https://t.co/sB7yb49VHH

[Wes Gray 🇺🇸 @alphaarchitect]

@SowingAlphaSeed Saw that. Better than claude? We have google workspace and it'd be nice if google got their sh#$ together on ai

[Wes Gray 🇺🇸 @alphaarchitect]

@petaluma_rob @MebFaber U don't want Pocahontas spending your money? 🤣🤣🤣

[Wes Gray 🇺🇸 @alphaarchitect]

@cullenroche @EricBalchunas @JSeyff Grinding it out! Quite an achievement in the etf combat arena!

[Wes Gray 🇺🇸 @alphaarchitect]

@DaveNadig @cliffcornell_ Ya, but that story sucks. IPO value would drop to only 50x revenue vs 100x.

[Wes Gray 🇺🇸 @alphaarchitect]

@cliffcornell_ Ya, who doesn't love living in a more hard-core version of death valley with no water and worse weather?

[Wes Gray 🇺🇸 @alphaarchitect]

@JohnTinsman Condolences 🙏

[Wes Gray 🇺🇸 @alphaarchitect]

@ptuomov Great post. Animal spirits certainly are high these days!

[Ptuomov @ptuomov]

BUBBLES AND DIVERSIFYING ASSETS

As a large bubble inflates and creates the unbearable FOMO vacuum that sucks almost everyone in, the bubble causes people to sour on otherwise sensible, reasonably high expected-return diversifying investments. One of the signs of the bubble is the expected long-term real returns actually increasing on assets that aren't participating in the bubble.

For example, during the 1999 TMT bubble, U.S. REITs, EM equities, EM debt, U.S. TIPS, Barclays developed gov't debt, and international small-cap equities were all shunned and had their expected returns grow to reasonable levels. You could lend money to Bill and George W. at 4% real because the market loved equities and there was no love left over for anything else! The price of these diversifying investments didn't go up or down much during the 1999 TMT bubble, even though fundamental values did steadily grow, which over time increased the long-term expected returns on these diversifying investments.

Investing in those kinds of bubble non-participants doesn't really protect your mark-to-market relative P’n’L during the bubble. Only being long the bubble can protect your relative P’n’L from the bubble!

However, investing in those diversifying investments does position you well for the bubble burst and deflation, as those investments work well during the deflation stage. Such diversifying investments during the bubble may make sense if you aren't confident about being better at timing the bubble than the next guy.

Of course, those who believe they have the divine touch of market timing will plan to be long the bubble until they can see the eyeballs of the enemy and then rotate to these diversifying investments at the last moment. Godspeed to those of you, whom I know are numerous!

Relating this to my framework about the stages of bubbles:

Steps 5-8:
- Diversifying investments become less correlated with the bubble.
- Diversifying investments start producing disappointing returns.
- Diversifying investments begin to have muted price reactions to legitimately good fundamental news.

Step 9 and after:
- Diversifying investments continue to produce acceptable absolute returns and start producing very good alpha.
- Diversifying investments’ past fundamental news will be reinterpreted more positively as new fundamental news arrives.

[Meb Faber @MebFaber]

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Coming July 4, 2026 🇺🇸

Pre-order: https://t.co/VGGmU7Rcwa