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Bitcoin 4 Yr Cycle update.
On month 38 of 48(avg). Closing 3rd month below the 10ma. About to close 4 red months in a row, not seen since 2018. Looking like the recent move to $98k was the counter-trend move. Clear divergence from all other assets.
I hate being bearish any asset, especially bitcoin. I rarely short markets or believe any decent asset class stays down for long. I always want to be a bull in general. But this "currently" is a perfect 4yr cycle and mirrors all priors. Remember you can be very bullish on the fundamentals, but also realize that everything is cyclical and respecting there is a time and place.
Ofc, markets can change in a heartbeat, every strategy is breakable, and it's our job not to get hung up on any narrative or bias. In that regard, on the positive, Bitcoin's declining phase is likely accelerated now, as sentiment has been repeatedly killed. Cycle declines are ALL about sentiment clearing events, and on that front we could be looking at an earlier (month 44?) low as a result.
But many of the bulls on X are just selling services, funds/DAT's, clout, etc, choosing personal gain/bias over reality and price action. Shifting narratives to keep the hope alive. They're human after-all.
I think that if this consistent historical structure were to change, then we would see a close back over the 10ma and i would want to quickly start to shift focus to the bull side. If such a change is structure were to happen, then I believe it would be signaling something massive afoot. I'll never say it can't happen here, I have strong convictions that I want to constantly challenge. I also think you're not giving up (besides some upside) being defensive and risk adverse here, even if this reverses and goes on to new highs.
Lastly, I also think most investors are still better off socking bitcoin away and ignoring all the volatility. And just use long drawdown period to aggressively accumulate.
After reviewing the Senate Banking draft text over the last 48hrs, Coinbase unfortunately canโt support the bill as written.
There are too many issues, including:
- A defacto ban on tokenized equities
- DeFi prohibitions, giving the government unlimited access to your financial records and removing your right to privacy
- Erosion of the CFTCโs authority, stifling innovation and making it subservient to the SEC
- Draft amendments that would kill rewards on stablecoins, allowing banks to ban their competition
We appreciate all the hard work by members of the Senate to reach a bi-partisan outcome, but this version would be materially worse than the current status quo. Weโd rather have no bill than a bad bill. Hopefully we can all get to a better draft.
We'll keep fighting for all Americans and for economic freedom. Crypto needs to be treated on a level playing field with the rest of financial services so we can build this industry in a safe and trusted way in America.
๐จ WATCH: Ex-Google CEO's BANNED Interview LEAKED: "You Have No Idea What's Coming"
Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt recently made headlines with some controversial comments about AI during an interview conduced at Stanford University. This interview was taken down at his request