I'm starting to formulate a thesis that low-float tokens may outperform in a bull market... i.e. the most hated rally in crypto.
My thesis is simple...
The markets hate low float/high FDV tokens, so they all fall on the initial float, usually by 70%+ as the market prices future unlocks, etc. Most unlocks actually do not see large selling events, anyhow.
However, from that point on, supply is a "known, known" so demand is the more important part of the equation...
If a token shows real demand growth (even early stage) either from network activity or even speculative interest, then demand will grow faster than supply for now and number go up.
With demand rising across the crypto ecosystem as the bull market phases of Crypto Summer and Crypto Fall take hold (alt season), tokens that are seeing increasing demand but tiny supply due to low floats will be more asymmetric to the upside in a bull market. This is much like the small emerging markets of old, where entry and exit doors were narrow, but demand would periodically be large—they massively outperformed in peroids of demand (and got crushed when everyone went for the tiny exit door).
When the inevitable bear market comes, many of these low-float tokens will hugely underperform unless the unlocks are mainly out of the way and/or demand is robust.
This doesn't mean any low-float token works, and it also doesn't mean high FDV doesn't have some informational value. But those tokens that show network growth and investor interest might well be the best performers over the next 18 months.
...And everyone will hate it because it goes against the prevailing narrative.
Many of these tokens are still highly discounted from the initial launch and thus offer potentially large opportunities.
Right now, I haven't done the work to figure out which of these tokens are interesting and it will also require more data points on true network growth.
In a nutshell...
Everyone hates low float tokens, so are underowned.
But, any increase in demand can move them much more than anything else due to the dreaded low float working in your favour.
Don't overstay your welcome.
I will think more on this but from my experience in TradFi, this is the most likely outcome. Let's see...
$RENDER
this is a clean set-up , anything below $6 is insta buy from my side all the way down to $4.9 if given
Both TA and FA are great but most will fade ✍️
Keep selling $RENDER at macro ascending channel Support zone , it will turn out so great for you 🤝
smart money is heavily loading here if i were to guess and soon , new uptrend will start
I believe $RENDER / $USDT could be one of the early movers this cycle.
The @rendernetwork team has been building solid fundamentals that haven’t been fully priced in yet, and these could catalyze significant growth once the market gains momentum, especially when $BTC approaches its ATH again.
$RNDR has already demonstrated its potential, and its utility is gaining more recognition each day. As the AI narrative gains traction, projects like these are poised to be among the first to benefit.
From a technical standpoint, it's crucial to hold the current support level.
The MACD remains bullish, and positive news regarding BTC and ETH ETFs could reignite bullish sentiment in the market at any time.
Keeping a close eye on this one.
The top F500s don't just know $RENDER
Many have their own connections with the ecosystem.
1. Apple $3.5T MC- OctaneRender in App Store
2. Microsoft $3.3T MC- GPU support to Render
3. NVIDIA $2.9T MC- Jules & Jenson relation
4. Google $2.2T MC- GPU support to Render
5. Amazon $1.9T MC- OTOY Brigade on EC2
7. Meta $1.1T MC- 6DOF video VR camera
11. Tesla $788B MC- Jules & Elon relation
21. Samsung $415B MC- VR web browsing
23. Oracle $382B MC- OctaneRender on OCI
34. Netflix $279B MC- Rana Naidu used Octane
42. Adobe $249B MC- Octane on Adobe AE
76. Disney $176B MC- HBO invest & use Render
80. IBM $172B MC- OTOY board 30+ years at IBM
These are only the connections from the first 100 top companies out the F500.
Obviously this will look impressive given these are some of the biggest companies in the world.
But this isn't even accounting for consortiums, private companies & other efforts of Render/OTOY.
With the trend in AI/DePIN nowadays, everyone wants to be the next Render Network.
But the specialty in Render/OTOY doesn't actually lie in their GPUs,
As we can see….
It’s from how they started as OTOY & bridged these Web2 giant connections into the world of Web3 where they're Render today.
If you caught our first Community Hangout Spaces yesterday here on X you’ll know we mentioned an AMA with questions from new artists as well as community members following our #RENDER journey from the beginning.
Here it is! https://t.co/PPjxhw9ZSA
Congrats to all involved 👏
Looking forward to @StabilityAI focusing on its position a leader in generative media while staying true to its open roots 🤞
The new leaders are ideal to help the industry navigate what is going to be a crazy transition in the coming years 🙏
Okey $RNDR fam take a look at these numbers 👇
$XRP holders : 5.2 mil
$DOGE holders : 6.9 mil
While $RNDR is at 99k holders 👀
Do you know how early we are 🔥