I’ve read thousands of books.
In 2010, I picked one up that would change my life.
The book: *Fooled by Randomness* by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb)
Over a decade later, the 5 lessons that have stayed with me:
This framework I shared months ago is still relevant today.
Ideally every investor would like to sell at the start of worsening fundamentals, but sometimes it takes a couple of Qs to get to this conclusion.
Over the LT, selling early is a costlier mistake than selling late.
If you find these perspectives cold or heretic, I have a thought exercise for you. Spend 51 minutes listening to @patrick_oshag interview Frank Slootman and imagine you are competing with his team at Snowflake. How do you like your odds?
https://t.co/NYofL1kKLN
@kevinduffy1929 “In the last 19 bear markets, the average peak to trough decline has been 37% with an average duration of 289 days. If history were to repeat then today’s bear market ends in October 2022 with the S&P at 3000,” Bank of America Research analysts wrote in a Sunday note.
1/🧵
When Aswath Damodaran speaks, investors should listen. His recent podcast episode in “Invest Like the Best” is one of the best ones I’ve heard in years.
To save you time, here's curated notes of key insights from this spectacular 90-min episode.
Best served with cup of 🫖
We have all read Peter Lynch's One Up Wall Street.
But few people know that he wrote for Worth Magazine from 1992 to 1999.
It's a 181 page bonus scene to his best seller.
Here are my biggest takeaway:
Capitalism is brutal
If you invest, you MUST know how to identify a moat
Here are 9 financial “rules of thumb” that Warren Buffett uses to tell if a company has one:
2. Socratic Questioning
The second technique for First Principles Thinking is Socratic Questioning.
6 types of questions you can ask to dig deeper in search of the first principle (via https://t.co/HR9sOSzW5C):
1 month later:
$DAC: +6% ☹️
$ZIM: +37% 🙌
$DAC 'fair value estimate' now $125/sh
$ZIM 'fair value estimate' now $78/sh
Disclosure: Long/adding $DAC. Extremely undervalued and cheaper today at $82 than it was last year at $30... #shipping
Daniel Kahneman is an outstanding psychologist who won a Nobel Prize in Economics.
He wrote the best book on human misjudgment I have ever read.
Here are the 5 Biases that mislead our Investment Decisions the most and how to Avoid them👇🏼
Watch list for potential (key word potential) new positions as I patiently wait for macro to brighten a bit:
1) $SHOP
2) $SPT
3) $ABNB
4) $GOOGL
5) $LULU
6) $CMG
For you?
If you haven't seen this animated video of Ray Dalio's explanation of broad world cycles, it is well worth watching. I think it is a brilliant in explaining historical patterns in such a succinct manner. You will recognize the current state of the U.S.
https://t.co/F1WiR78T7U
In the 6 years that I invested in public companies at Quad-C, I made exactly 20 investments
19 of the 20 worked out really well
-Ted Weschler
That's a sick batting average
$MSFT has been a top 4 market cap stock for over 2 decades.
There really shouldn't be a question of which company is the GOAT.
h/t @jablamsky for the share.
EXCERCISE, showing how Discount Rates impact Valuation, using $NFLX as an example.
Why?
“Interest rates are to asset prices what gravity is to the apple. When there are low interest rates, there is a very low gravitational pull on asset prices"
--- Warren Buffett
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