$ASTS @ASTSpaceMobile to 2030 — let's run the numbers
If ASTS hits the midpoint of its FY2026 revenue guidance ($175M representing 147% year-over-year growth off a $70.9M 2025 base), here's what the stock could look like by 2030 under three scenarios, modeled on revenue growth, P/S multiple, and annual dilution:
Bear 🔴
40% rev CAGR
5× P/S
15% dilution → $28 (+flat to slight loss from $100)
Base 🟡
70% rev CAGR
10× P/S
12% dilution → $175 (+15% CAGR)
Bull 🟢
100% rev CAGR
18× P/S
10% dilution → $720 (+48% CAGR)
$3.5B in cash.
Fully funded for 100+ satellites.
$1.2B in remaining performance obligations.
Half of 2026 guidance already locked in contracted backlog.
FCC just authorized commercial SpaceMobile service across the U.S. using AT&T, Verizon, and FirstNet spectrum, up to 248 satellites. That's not a pilot. That's a national license.
60 mobile network operator partners. 3 billion combined subscribers. Peak speeds of 98.9 Mbps direct to an unmodified smartphone.
The AT&T and Verizon JV could now open the door to T-Mobile.
Roth Capital: Buy, $108 target. CFRA bullish. Analyst consensus clustering around $83–$91 against a stock sitting near $100.
The part that gets me?
This isn't a satellite company.
It's the world's largest cellular network, just built 300 miles above Earth.
@usahockey Give Kane respect he deserves. Leaving Robertson off is an embarrassment to whole organization.
You should feel like complete fucking morons! Typical Team USA bullshit happens at a young age all the way to here!
A strategic investment from @FirstNetGov is upgrading the #FirstNet network core to support future public safety-focused satellite-to-device features, like priority, preemption on Band 14, and mission-critical push-to-talk—capabilities beyond standard commercial networks. Once available, these solutions will complement and extend FirstNet’s reach for first responders in remote and hard-to-access areas.
$ASTS: A REVIEW OF WHAT LIES AHEAD AND RECENT MILESTONES ACHIEVED
Upcoming Catalysts:
+ BB6 India Launch
+ BB7 Delivery to Florida and Launch
+ BB8 - BB10 Delivery to Florida and Launch
+ Execution of more definitive commercial agmts w/ prepaid revenue and/or investment w/ Bell Canada, Telefonica, Saudi Telecom and more than 50 global MNOs
+ Golden Dome Award(s)
+ SDA HALO Award(s)
+ FirstNet Investment and Definitive Commercial Agreement
+ FCC approval for full US commercial service
+ Block-2 Launches in Batches of 3x, 4x or 8x satellites every 1-2 months
+ Unlocking portion of $20M, $25M, and $65M in revenue prepayments from AT&T, Vodafone and Verizon upon completion of milestones
+ Updates on Google services agmt partnership
+ Initiation of Research Coverage by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Stifel, others
+ Expansion of 8x contracts w/ Department of Defense, Space Development Agency, Defense Innovation Unit and more
+ FCC 5G Fund grant
+ Progress on +40x Block-2 BlueBirds in currently in production
+ Micron production to support 6x a month by end of Q3 2025
+ Production ramp to 6x satellites a month by the end of 2025
+ Proposal for PNT service accepted by FCC as alternative to GPS
+ Delivery of $50-75M of Revenue expected in 2H 2025
+ Initial Commercial Service w/ AT&T, Rakuten, Verizon, Vodafone in 2026
+ Securing +$500M of EXIM and IFC non-dilutive funding
+ Pursuit of L- and S-Band spectrum licenses globally
+ Catalysts the SpaceMob have yet to contemplate
Recent Completed Milestones:
+ BB6 completed and successfully delivered to India
+ Verizon Definitive Commercial Agreement
+ Successful testing with Bell Canada - native voice call, data, texting
+ US Bankruptcy Court confirms AST and Ligado L-band spectrum transaction transaction, deal now only subject to FCC appoval
+ FCC Partial Grant for launch and TT&C for 20x Block 2 birds
+ Acquired Global S-Band Spectrum Priority Rights held Under International Telecommunication Union
+ Successfully completed the first-ever native voice call (VoLTE) and text (SMS) with a standard cell phone using AT&T spectrum and core network
+ Hired JR Wilson as Chief of Networks and Spectrum, formerly AT&T VP of Tower Strategy, Roaming & In-Building Solutions
+ Raised $575M 2.375% Convertible Note w/ Capped Call struck at $120, resulting in $1.5B of pro forma cash on balance sheet
+ Repurchased $360M of $460M 4.25% Convertible Note
+ FCC granted STA for BB6
+ Entered into $550M of Non-Recourse Senior Secured Term Loan tofund Ligado Transaction
+ Secured $100M equipment loan facility
+ Moved to Russell 1000 from Russell 2000 Index
+ Demonstrated World's first tactical NTN connectivity over standard mobile devices with defense prime Fairwinds Technologies
+ Announced Latest MNO Partnership with Vodafone Idea of India
+ Hired Jennifer Manner as SVP of Regulatory Affairs and International Strategy, former NTIA Senior Advisor of Space and Policy and EchoStar SVP of Regulatory Affairs
+ FCC accepts AST’s application for US commercial service
+ FCC Chair Brendan Carr and Senator Ted Cruz visit HQ in support of AST
+ Verizon and AT&T Spectrum Lease Agreements filed w/ FCC
+ FCC grants STA for beta testing w/ AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Bell Canada, and Rakuten
+ FCC grants STA for Firstnet evaluation on public safety Band 14
+ AST SpaceMobile forms SatCo Joint Venture w/ Vodafone to better serve European market, select Luxembourg as HQ
+ Secured $43M and $20M Contracts w/ US Space Development Agency and Defense Innovation Unit
+ AST5000 ASIC development finished and now being integrated into Block-2 sats
+ Successful video calls completed w/ AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone and Rakuten
+ Exercised Multi-launch Agmts w/ SpaceX, Blue Origin and ISRO
+ Reached +3,700 patent & patent pending claims
+ Initiation of Research Coverage by Bank of America, Clear Street, Roth Capital, Cantor Fitzgerald, Oppenheimer and William Blair
+ Established Coordination Agmt w/ US National Science Foundation covering satellite and ground-based astronomy operations
+ Closed $460M 4.25% Convertible Debt funding
Signed 2-3x additional Global MNOs, bringing the total to +53x covering +3.2B Subscribers
+ AST Secures 74% more mfg space in Midland, TX, Homestead, FL, and Barcelona, Spain - now at 338,000 sqft
+ Opened European Research Center w/ Vodafone and University of Malaga in Spain
+ Signed Deal w/ Singapore’s Defense Science and Technology Agency
+ Joined 5G Automotive Association, which develops and promotes 5G-based Solutions for Connected Autonomous Vehicles