Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon

Economist, Finance - Commodities - Time Series, tweets are my own, RT no endorsement

[Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon @ArthurStalla]

Our paper on gas market and EA inflation is now available as @ECB_Research WP !
We develop a new BVAR with a granular set of (weekly) gas shocks, which might be particularly useful for those monitoring the Iran war 👀
Shocks are available here: https://t.co/j9beepBya4

[Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon @ArthurStalla]

@charles_dennery @BayesReality Slogan très étrange, qu’on retrouvait même dans les interventions d’Isabelle Kocher à l’époque. Oserais-je dire que je n’ai jamais très bien compris pourquoi Engie communiquait en ce sens

[Arpit Gupta @arpitrage]

One person who was completely vindicated in time was Shiller with his AEA address on narrative economics.

I was there at the time, and thought: cool idea, but no way you can operationalize this.

LLMs have made it much easier to study narratives

https://t.co/FAH3HxpUi5

[Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon @ArthurStalla]

@Zalasta Le tweet qui rebat toutes les cartes sur l’identité de Zalasta

[Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon @ArthurStalla]

@jeuasommenulle 5 mbd of demand destruction here looks huge, IEA estimates it at 2.4 mbd for Q2

[Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @lugaricano]

And again, and again, and again, the market proves to be more flexible and adaptable than the engineers, extrapolating, with their calculators expect. When prices change, behaviour changes. Believe in substitution, in elasticity, in human ingenuity, that is, in the market, and you will get a closer approximation than all doom-mongers. For this of course, a market must exist (e.g., does not apply to the fertility collapse).

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

Must read from @michalmei on how China has managed to reduce oil imports so sharply without (based on available data) tapping stocks.

She offers an alternative to the ‘China-is-tapping-in-secret-its-SPR’ narrative, focusing on refinery yield shifts.

📑: https://t.co/XmH0RuFf1t

[Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon @ArthurStalla]

@train_nomad Bonjour, des nouvelles du 3105 au départ de saint lazare ?

[Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon @ArthurStalla]

Happy to share that our paper below on gas market shocks and inflation expectations has just been published in the Journal of Macroeconomics !

Together with @FeveileJakob, MS Lappe, AS Manu, D Roessler and @FabianSHPP

https://t.co/zlTqCiNxnB

[Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon @ArthurStalla]

Our paper on gas market and EA inflation is now available as @ECB_Research WP !
We develop a new BVAR with a granular set of (weekly) gas shocks, which might be particularly useful for those monitoring the Iran war 👀
Shocks are available here: https://t.co/j9beepBya4

[Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon @ArthurStalla]

@jdl288 Oui: x-axis % de +50 ans, y-axis je comprends ça comme %-CSP+

Pour chaque point ils obtiennent un parti sorti en tête lorsque l’on isole les 100 circos les plus proches des valeurs de X et Y. Donc c’est un nuage de point coloré, avec un peu de fantaisie pour tracer les aires ?

[Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon @ArthurStalla]

Amazing chart design

[Owen Winter @OwenWntr]

The local elections in one chart. Labour has been squeezed between the Greens in young wards and Reform in older working-class wards

[Carlos Montes-Galdón @CMontesGaldon]

Philip Lane (@ecb) gave a fantastic speech yesterday on the impact of energy supply shocks, emphasizing how the source and nature of the shock can have strongly different implications for the euro area.
I am very happy that he relied on one of our models with the great Nicolò Gnocato (@nico_gnocato) and Giovanni Stamato (@stamgiovanni ) to frame one of the core arguments. Here is a summary 🧵👇
🔗 https://t.co/vU6Zr0yBUO

[Dr. Ilia Bouchouev @IliaBouchouev]

Economists think that futures are derivatives of spot prices. In oil, it's the other way around: spot (which trades as a spread to futures) is a derivative of futures with the latter being a larger mkt. After an earlier spike, spot prices now fully converged to futures.
#oott

[Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon @ArthurStalla]

@JavierBlas @DamienERNST1 If US exports surge, this should not affect oil global prices unless if there is additional US supply/inventory releases or demand destruction in the US. Focusing on exports kind of hides the true factors at play

[Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon @ArthurStalla]

Paper is available here: https://t.co/JyGDdJDmh5

Together with @FeveileJakob, MS Lappe, AS Manu, D Roessler and @FabianSHPP

[Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon @ArthurStalla]

Our paper on gas market and EA inflation is now available as @ECB_Research WP !
We develop a new BVAR with a granular set of (weekly) gas shocks, which might be particularly useful for those monitoring the Iran war 👀
Shocks are available here: https://t.co/j9beepBya4

[Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon @ArthurStalla]

@SakumiBLR @wittgensteinien J’arrive pas à me faire une idée sur le dernier point. À Vienne tlm dit que les logements sociaux pèsent à la baisse sur les loyers privés. D’un autre côté on pourrait penser que les HLMs ne changent pas en soi l’identité du “locataire marginal” qui fixe le niveau des loyers

[Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon @ArthurStalla]

@RV_Joly @charles_dennery Cette variable est la seule métrique dont nous disposons (ou au moins dt j’ai entendu parler) en comparaison internationale. Ce qui serait absurde ce serait de la balayer du revers de la main au profit d’anecdotal evidence comme celle que vous évoquez sur l’Allemagne

[Justin Sandefur @JustinSandefur]

How can world record marathon times be falling at an accelerating rate? Wild.

[Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon @ArthurStalla]

@mat_augmente À ne pas manquer également le “si jamais les dermatos arrêtaient de faire de l’esthétique, ils seraient envahis par des consultations de bobologie, ce qui ne règlerait rien. Source ? T’inquiète” https://t.co/MKNC77tNfg

[Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon @ArthurStalla]

@Syhuiluo @Dermatopoullos @MathieuL1 C'est ce qu'il écrit ds un autre thread. Accessoirement le filtrage de cette bobologie pourrait être faite par les dermatos eux-mm (''pas besoin de revenir me voir pr ce pb'') mais j'imagine qu'il est préferable de privilégier les séances épilation-laser https://t.co/N5Eb7fZt5N

[Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon @ArthurStalla]

@ggaulier @franceinter J’ai même l’impression qu’il se radicalise sur le sujet. Maintenant il souligne que la baisse de la consommation des combustibles fossiles en Europe serait contrainte