AsiaPacForum.com

Clear judgment. Hard facts. Direct conclusions. Strategic analysis of the critical issues shaping the Asia-Pacific. From the University of Las Ladrones.

[Zineb Riboua @zriboua]

China now faces a stagnant economy, with GDP per capita less than the global average and less than 20 percent of the US level.

As throughout China’s long history, any semblance of social welfare rests in the hands of local governments. But high debt levels and diminishing income from land sales and taxes after the bursting of the real estate bubble imperil their finances.

Local governments rely on transfers from Beijing to meet their budgets, and local authorities are responsible for more than 90 percent of the costs of social services while receiving only about half of the country’s tax revenues.

According to the Rhodium Group, more than half of Chinese cities have trouble servicing their debt, and many face interest payments that take up more than a third of annual revenues. This severely constrains their ability to finance existing social safety net obligations, let alone improve the system.

https://t.co/hgEUY3qVvA

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@vshih2 The police state. Now you can't even leave.....

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@Dale_Chu @JonahDispatch @thedispatch @dale_chu There is a significant gap between the NOU 2024:20 Report and Goldberg's article. The government’s (2024-2030) strategy is "The Digital Norway of the Future." It argues that because AI is ubiquitous, the risk of not teaching it is higher than the risk of using it.

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@vshih2 You can see it in the application numbers

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@vshih2 How many unmarried men in china?

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@EvanFeigenbaum @RyanFedasiuk Following Saudi

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@valuedrift All fair comments. You missed thr most important point which is taiwanese have a civil society where people are polite and follow the law

[Ken Cao-The China Crash Chronicle @KenCao_onChina]

Beijing is increasingly running out of options when it comes to Japan. Beyond rhetorical attacks, it has little in the way of effective measures. Japan, for its part, has chosen to ignore the rhetoric and respond with strength.

On one hand, it is accelerating its military buildup. On the other, it occasionally demonstrates its capabilities to Beijing, such as the recent passage of Japanese warships through the Taiwan Strait.

In other words, China–Japan relations have already shifted from economic competition to military competition. From a historical perspective, this transition was almost inevitable.

Japan is an island nation with limited territory, scarce resources, and a food self-sufficiency rate below 40%. Its energy dependence on imports exceeds 95%, with most crude oil coming from the Middle East, passing through critical chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca. Historically, Japan launched wars of aggression due to resource shortages. Today, its economic lifeline still depends heavily on overseas shipping routes.

If these maritime routes were cut off, Japan would quickly face energy shortages, food crises, and economic paralysis. Survival itself would become difficult. As a result, Japan’s military strategy cannot be limited to homeland defense, that would be far too passive. It must extend outward in an offensive posture, protecting not only its territory but also sea lanes up to 1,000 nautical miles away and beyond.

Japan's limited territory and scarce resources mean it cannot achieve self-sufficiency in food and energy. This structural reality gives Japan an inherently outward-looking, expansionary strategic posture. After World War II, the United States protected Japan’s maritime lifelines, reducing the need for a strong military. But if the U.S. were to step back, Japan would have no choice but to rely on its own power to secure those routes, requiring a much stronger military, especially naval and air forces.

In recent years, U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly called on allies to strengthen their own defenses, signaling that the U.S. will no longer provide free security guarantees. Washington has pushed Japan not only to enhance self-defense but also to develop offensive capabilities. As a result, Japan has been rapidly expanding its naval, air, and missile forces. The U.S. not only accepts this shift but actively supports it.

From the U.S. perspective, a Japan–China military competition is desirable, as it reduces the burden on Washington to contain China.

China’s military advantages lie first in scale. It has around 2 million active personnel, compared to roughly 250,000 in Japan’s Self-Defense Forces—an eightfold difference. China also has the world’s largest navy by number of vessels, including aircraft carriers, destroyers, frigates, submarines, and amphibious ships. Its air force is similarly large in terms of aircraft numbers, even if not all are technologically advanced.

China’s second advantage is geography. Its vast territory provides strategic depth, a critical factor in warfare. During the War of Resistance against Japan, China’s ability to endure was largely due to this geographic depth.

Japan’s advantages, on the other hand, lie in technology and quality. Its military equipment—such as F-35 stealth fighters, Soryu-class submarines, and quasi-aircraft carriers—is highly advanced, often surpassing China in quality. Another key advantage is its alliance network. The U.S.–Japan Security Treaty provides a nuclear umbrella and joint command structure. In addition, frameworks like the Quad (U.S., Japan, Australia, India) further enhance Japan’s defense capabilities.

Japan’s greatest weakness is geography. Its heavy dependence on overseas resources and long maritime supply chains makes it highly vulnerable. If these routes are blocked or attacked, Japan could be effectively strangled. For this reason, Japan’s strategy must be proactive—securing key chokepoints in advance and working with allies to conduct active, forward defense rather than passive defense.

In essence, the China–Japan rivalry is an asymmetric contest between a defensive continental power and an outward-oriented island nation. China does not need to project power far beyond its borders and can sustain a prolonged conflict. Japan, by contrast, must operate outward to survive and is structurally unsuited for a prolonged war.

However, there is an even more important factor in war: politics.

Looking at history, if one were to compare China and Japan purely based on objective metrics in the late 19th century, China should have overwhelmingly outmatched Japan. Yet Japan defeated China. The reason was corruption. The Qing dynasty was deeply corrupt—its military appeared large on paper but was ineffective in reality. Ammunition in the Beiyang Fleet was reportedly filled with sand instead of explosives.

Today, China’s People’s Liberation Army also appears massive, but whether it can truly fight effectively remains an open question. There are claims that some missiles are filled with water instead of fuel—echoing the same systemic corruption seen in the past.

Recent anti-corruption campaigns in China’s military-industrial sector have led to the arrest of numerous senior officials. This suggests that behind the appearance of a vast arsenal, a significant portion may be unreliable or even unusable.

In the end, a politically corrupt system is fundamentally incapable of winning a war.

[田母神俊雄 @toshio_tamogami]

中国経済の崩壊は日本のマスコミではあまり出てこないが酷い状況のようだ。2020年以降の5年で外資は90％撤退、日本もソニー、パナソニック、イトーヨーカ堂など多くの企業がすでに撤退しているが、今度は日本第2位の自動車メーカー、本田技研工業が広州と武漢の2つ��ガソリン車工場を閉鎖する。本田は2020年に中国販売台数が162万7千台の過去最高を記録して以降、5年連続で減少が続いており、2025年は64万5千台に落ち込んだ。世界の工場と言われた中国の時代は終わった。

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@NinaDSchick Great. They are decarbonizing. Makes sense for them. Not for everyone

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@pstAsiatech Bishop is one of the most credible analysts of china in the world. Far more credible than you are

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@JohnF_Sullivan What nonsense. You only have to look at modern and ancient history to see many examples of Chinese aggression

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@JChengWSJ @BrianSpegele @joshchin Fear of being blacklisted by chins more of a factor

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@niubi Death sentance

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@PhelimKine We look forward to welcoming her to Taipei

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@pstAsiatech @vshih2 Its much more pleasant than Hammond, In.

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@pstAsiatech OpenLanguage is a bad business model and Chinese tech cos are moving away from it.

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@vshih2 But its not possible when you are No.2

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@PerpetualLogic @MsMelChen Failing economy. Few prospects of reform. Political instability and fighting among CCP elite. Being outflanked by Trump in Venzuela, Iran, Cuba. How is that winning?