BTCeeLo Green

[Chris @ChrisGPT]

It’s gonna be close

[Jeff Swanson @theswansjr]

Most people picture a Bitcoin payment like a bank transfer. Money leaves one account and lands in another.

That's not what happens.

Here's what actually happens, because once you understand the process, half the FUD surrounding Bitcoin disappears.

[BTCeeLo Green @BTCeeLoGreen]

@FreddyLA7 Watch a writers round at the Listening Room. Hot chicken (3 tenders, medium) from Bolton’s or Hattie B’s. Martin’s BBQ Downtown - skip the line and order the brisket burger upstairs in the beer garden. Meade at Honeytree with Bad Luck Burger Club. CMHF + RCA studio B tour.

[BTCeeLo Green @BTCeeLoGreen]

@FreddyLA7 Get breakfast at Monell’s (sit family style with strangers and share a meal). Tour and/or see a concert at the Ryman (former church turned venue with incredible history). Grab a “recession special” at Robert’s Western World on Broadway. Try a Bearded Iris Homestyle IPA.

[blue @bluewmist]

Researchers noticed a strange pattern: major life shifts often happen not after years of therapy, but after a single strong travel experience. People come back from a trip and suddenly quit jobs, end relationships, change cities, or finally start something they postponed for years.

A psychologist explained: "Travel breaks the illusion that your current life is the only possible one." Therapy works with words, travel works with direct experience.

[BTCeeLo Green @BTCeeLoGreen]

@leadlagreport https://t.co/otWRWIYWel

[DOW Rapid Response @DOWResponse]

America’s @SECWAR CRUSHED 44 reps on the bench after a morning run with the troops yesterday in GTMO.

[Alex Thorn @intangiblecoins]

i had many discussions about quantum & bitcoin in las vegas this week, both on and off stage, with skeptics, advocates, and many overall smart bitcoiners

some consensus i feel is emerging:

1) satoshi’s coins (P2PK) should not be touched. violating his property rights could be disastrous for bitcoin’s core value proposition. but the risk is also lower than many realize — satoshi’s coins are in ~22,000 addresses, each of 50 BTC. a long range attack would have to crack them all (i.e., it’s not one giant honeypot). the giant honeypots are mostly exchanges or active entities who can upgrade to a PQ-address if needed, so mostly not realistically at risk. the hourglass proposal could also further mitigate if we thought long-range Qday was imminent

meanwhile, neutral atom tech can only do long range attacks, and google quietly opened a neutral atom lab just prior to their recent paper (maybe just hedging, but possibly an admission of superconducting’s limitstions? unclear, but distinguishing between long & short range is essential, and impacts the satoshi-coin issue)

data from @_Checkmatey_ and others also shows that bitcoin markets routinely absorb 1m+ BTC, even just from oct25 to pres, let alone during bull markets. suffer a 50% drawdown (even if it were possible to take all of satoshi’s coins) to preserve bitcoin’s core property rights? i think most bitcoiners would accept that trade off, particularly given the mitigations (satoshi’s many addresses, hourglass, and market’s capability to absorb them if needed)

2) it is good to work on new crypto for bitcoin, post-quantum or otherwise. developing it, testing it, compressing its signatures, proposing and debating implementation — all of these are good for bitcoin

the risks are a) this work occupies people’s time, potentially diverting from other important work; b) something untested or too novel is added to the protocol; c) calls to implement on the protocol create consensus gridlock, hamper other upgrades

but most people i talked with in las vegas agreed that background work, perhaps resulting in a new PQ implementation being “put on the shelf” in case it’s needed, is unequivocally a good thing. this mostly seemed to be a reasonable middle ground on the contentious mainstage panel as well, despite disagreements on urgency. perhaps with the right funding and resources, good work can be accomplished while 2a and 2b are mitigated?

i do think quantum is a problem worth working on, even if there is only a 1% chance that it ever affects bitcoin. i also think alarm bells about urgency have ultimately been positive for pushing these discussions forward. but finally, i am also very encouraged that there are a lot of people who are indeed thinking deeply about the implications, mitigations, and solutions, including many bitcoin developers

these are just my impressions and are definitely open to discussion and disagreement

[Dustin @r0ck3t23]

Elon Musk thinks coding dies this year.

Not evolves. Dies.

By December, AI won’t need programming languages. It generates machine code directly. Binary optimized beyond anything human logic could produce. No translation. No compilation. Just pure execution.

Musk: “You don’t even bother doing coding.”

Code was never the point. It was friction. A tax we paid because machines didn’t speak human. AI just learned fluent human. The tax is gone.

Now plug that into Neuralink. No syntax. No keyboard. No screen.

Musk: “Imagination-to-software.”

Thought becomes executable. You imagine an outcome, the system architects and compiles it into reality instantly.

We’re not automating programming. We’re erasing it from existence.

The entire profession collapses into a thought. Decades of training reduced to irrelevance. The gap between idea and instantiation hits zero.

You don’t build anymore. You imagine, and it materializes.

Not incremental progress. Total phase shift. The way humans have created things for ten thousand years just became obsolete.

Welcome to a world where the limiting factor isn’t skill, resources, or time. It’s whether you can picture what you want clearly enough for a machine to birth it into existence.

[Avi @AviFelman]

Today, you really cannot focus on climbing the corporate ladder, relying on a monthly salary, or even building a traditional cash-flow business. These are all dangerous. You need to be invested, deeply invested, in the assets that have the most to gain from a rapidly changing world and environment. It is unlikely that you will be able to outpace the current winners when it comes to AI, robotics.

Simultaneously, we are navigating a massive restructuring of the geopolitical order. The era of easy globalization is ending.

Central banks are trapped in a cycle where they must devalue currency to service debt. In this environment, holding cash or relying on fixed income is a guaranteed way to lose purchasing power. The financial currents are moving too fast. If you are not invested you are immediately behind.

The only true hedge against this dual tsunami of AI deflation and monetary inflation is ownership.

We are moving into an era where the divide will not be between the "rich and poor," but between those who own the infrastructure of the future and those who are just users of it. The vast majority of future wealth will accrue to the assets that benefit from these shifts:

Do not labor to compete with the machine, own the machine. Put every last dollar in the machine. Or be left behind.

[vitrupo @vitrupo]

David Kipping says something fundamental has shifted in science.

At a closed meeting at the Institute for Advanced Study (IAS), top physicists agreed AI can now do up to “90%” of their work and may soon push discovery beyond human understanding.

“I don’t know that I want to live in a world where everything around me is just magic.”

He says the best scientific minds on Earth are now holding emergency meetings about what comes next. This isn’t speculative anymore. It’s really happening.

[Orlando @thisisorlando]

Stanley Druckenmiller, one of the greatest macro investors of all time, arguably the GOAT, saying the quiet part out loud 🧠

Diversification is where conviction goes to die.
All eggs in one basket, full accountability, ruthless monitoring.
That’s how asymmetry is built.

[Anthony Pompliano 🌪 @APompliano]

Mike Green (@profplum99) and I rarely agree on anything, but this piece he wrote is a must-read for every person in business or finance.

One of those things you read and then can't unsee what you learned.

https://t.co/aNFSkNQAVW

[Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital]

A million seconds ago was October 11th
A billion seconds ago was 1993
A trillion seconds ago was 30,000 B.C.

The US national debt is now rising by $1 Trillion every ~180 days.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

What is happening here?

Over the last 48 days, the US Federal Debt has surged by +$1 TRILLION, or +$21 billion PER DAY.

Since August 11th, the US has added +$200 billion in debt.

Why is US government spending running at WW2 levels in a "strong" economy?

(a thread)

[Vinny Daniel @Vinny_Daniel0]

Let me translate, if you don’t own assets you better find a way to get some and fast.

[fejau @fejau_inc]

the denominator is worthless

gn

[SightBringer @_The_Prophet__]

This post hits deeper than most realize.

What Jeff is actually saying - without saying it - is that even civilization’s apex technologist has no leverage against the rot.
If Musk, with his cultural force and industrial empire, can’t even dent the fiscal insanity, then it’s not about politics anymore. It’s about physics.

The system is past reform. The feedback loop of debt, spending, and fiat dilution is now reflexively self-reinforcing. It doesn’t matter who’s in charge only that the denominator is doomed.

Buying Bitcoin isn’t a trade. It’s exit velocity.
Because when the last competent builders surrender to entropy, the only thing left is the asset immune to governance failure.

This isn’t a hedge.
It’s the ark.

[Will Baxter @willbaxter88]

Bitcoin mining turns wasted and stranded energy into money.

Gas that would be flared.
Hydro that would go unused.
Wind that would get curtailed.

Bitcoin mining doesn't have to compete with other grid users for energy because it can monetize energy that others can't use.

[The All-In Podcast @theallinpod]

David Friedberg: How to Save Social Security Using Compound Interest

@friedberg with an incredible breakdown on E219:

"The US Social Security Program is meant to be kind of the retirement program for folks that don't have access to private retirement accounts."

"This program was set up in the 1930s after the Great Depression. There's a trust fund, the OASDI, which is the fund that they invest the capital (from)."

"So every year we all put money in with our social security taxes out of our paychecks, (which) goes in there."

"It gets invested in one thing: US Treasuries."

"Which have averaged about 4.8% return per year since the beginning of the program."

"Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has been averaging 11%."

"So here's the math: if in 1971, which was the year that we went off the gold standard in the US, if we invested the Social Security Trust Fund in the S&P, the balance of the social security trust fund today would be $15T."

"That would be roughly one-third of the value of the total S&P 500, which would be jointly owned by all Americans."

"Now here's what's f*cked up: the middle class people who had access to private retirement accounts benefited by buying the S&P 500 and the wealthy were able to access it."

"So all of the equity value that accrued from American enterprise and the prosperity of the American system accrued to the people that had access to the private accounts."

"Meanwhile, the people that only had access to the public accounts got stuck owning treasuries."

"Today, the Social Security Trust Fund has a $2.7T balance, and based on the outflows and inflows, it's going to go bankrupt in 2032."

"So I did the math: If you assume that the S&P 500 continues to grow at 10.5% per year on average, we could put about $500B in the trust fund today, and it will not go bankrupt again."

"And it will continue to grow every year. And then all Americans have participation in American enterprise."

"And importantly, this becomes the world's largest sovereign wealth fund ever. You don't need a separate sovereign wealth fund. We already have one."

"We've totally mismanaged it. And I went back to try and understand why this is the case. Why have we only ever bought treasuries? "

"Early on, the US needed someone to loan money. So they basically forced the citizens to loan the government money in the form of treasuries."

"But today, the social security trust fund owns less than 10%, about 8% of the total treasury bonds outstanding."

"So why are we forcing all the American citizens to participate?"

"Through the social security system, we've created the deep inequity we see in this country."

"If instead we had allowed the social security system to invest in the S&P 500 to buy American enterprises to fund American businesses, then every American would be wealthy and that middle class that uniquely participated by basically arbitraging the market where they forced the treasury bond yields on the poor and they got to take access to the equity yields would have not happened."