I stress test the world’s best companies and ETFs. Deep dives, portfolio updates, and high-conviction research. For investors thinking in decades — not days.
Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness exited its entire public-equities book through a single-buyer transaction just as its former holdings are ripping today:
• $BE +26%
• $NBIS +25%
• $SHAZ +26%
• $IREN +25%
• $SNDK +20%
• $CRWV +20%
• $TE +14%
• $AMD +13%
$RKLB expected to turn profitable by 2027 after the $IRDM deal
Combined company projected to earn ~$140M that year. Iridium’s network helps offset Rocket Lab’s cash burn and creates a fully vertically integrated player launch, spacecraft, and communications.
A real challenger to $SPCX in the making.
#RKLB #SpaceStocks
Tonight’s key focus:
$AAPL
Expected EPS ~$1.88–1.89, revenue $108–110B.
Watching iPhone sales, Services growth, China performance, and H2 guidance.
One of Tim Cook’s final earnings calls as CEO.
$AMZN
Expected EPS ~$1.81–1.82, revenue ~$196–197B.
Main focus: AWS growth rate, advertising strength, and capex guidance (especially AI-related).
Both report after the close. Results will likely set the tone for tech tomorrow.
Which one are you more bullish on?
#AAPL #AMZN #Earnings
Just saw the $266M Space Force contract drop. Biggest launch deal in company history 12+ suborbital missile defense flights, mostly out of a new site in Alaska
Solid win for the HASTE program and their defense business.
Stock still getting crushed though… sitting in the low 60s while the news keeps coming. Feels like the market doesn’t care right now.
Over 13,000 shares of $RKLB ,we will see!
Still holding and watching. Q2 earnings should be interesting🫡
This $266M USAF contract is a major win for $RKLB
Not only does it expand their defense footprint with 12+ suborbital launches through 2028, but it further validates Rocket Lab’s growing role in national security missions alongside their strong Electron cadence and the strategic Iridium acquisition
Solid long term tailwinds in a high barrier sector Continuing to watch closely
#RKLB
$RKLB won a $266M U.S. Air Force contract for 12 suborbital launches with options for six more through 2028.
The competitively awarded deal includes $112M in initial funding with launches set to take place from
I'm bullish on $RKLB for the next 3 months
Rocket Lab delivered a strong H1 with record Electron launches and growing backlog. The transformative Iridium acquisition is a game changer, positioning them as a vertically integrated space powerhouse
Analysts’ average target sits at $100-108 (solid upside potential). Backed by NASA, U.S. Space Force contracts, and broader space tailwinds
Volatility is expected short-term, but the medium-term growth story looks compelling
What’s your take? 👇
#RKLB #SpaceStocks #RocketLab #InvestmentNotes
Interesting move on $NUAI. Appreciate the clean thesis summary saves a lot of time.
Well played on the $IREN call @awilkinson
Will be watching how this develops👏
Started a position in $NUAI.
For the first time ever, I don't need to write my own thesis, this pretty much sums it up.
Not many others have called $IREN sub $10. Well done @awilkinson.
As usual, I will add/sell as I see fit.
Agreed!
Price action may break before the thesis. Maintain a long term view if fundamentals remain intact. Build your own thesis and stay patient markets will refocus on fundamentals🫡
Agreed! It’s nice to remember your thesis during a market crash.
From my own personal thesis, if $AAOI hits $1.4B quarterly revenue start of Q3 2027. Which is annualized $5.6B off a $8B MC.
Is it “over” for the company if that revenue ramp hasn’t even shown up in the quarterly earnings… when it’s 2026?
Same applies to my CPO sector exposure like $SIVE, an architecture shift led by $NVDA.
If scale out volume ramps from H2 2026 into 2027, and scale up heavily volume ramps into 2028.
Is it “over” that $0 -> $91B TAM expansion (per GS) hasn’t even hit yet?
With robotics like Agility, is it over in 2026 if the listing hasn’t even happened yet and humanoids haven’t ramped?
I personally think current market conditions are a reflection of liquidity and leverage, not individual fundamentals.
It’s brutal for everyone to see KOSPI, TW, Nikkei, and AI, space, robotics sector stocks crash recently.
Especially when there’s a lot of irrational behavior stemming from those leverage.
In the end, we can’t tell you what stocks to buy, what timeframe you should sell, how to size your positions, or what you should do.
Only share personal thoughts or research and track if they get validated over time.
So it’s extremely important to build your own thesis, since everyone has unique risk tolerance or investing timeframes.
And that usually leads to having higher conviction during crashes.
The Fed kept rates at 0% for a long time
Lots of pundits predicted it would lead to a crisis and maybe even hyperinflation
Didn't happen
Then they raised rates b/c of the pandemic inflation
Still no crisis
Why?
💳BofA: “Total card spending per HH was up 7.2% y/y in the week ending Apr 25, according to BAC aggregated credit & debit card data. Ex gas spending was up 6.4% y/y, in part due to favorable base effects from Easter Sunday (low spending day) timing change...
Extending this thread with fresh info from Robinhood's earnings presentation, which helpfully breaks out client market gains/losses on a quarterly basis.
$HOOD customer balances lost 10% from 12/31/25 levels in Q1. By comparison, S&P 500 was down 4.6% and Nasdaq fell 7.1% - but Bitcoin declined 22%.