Kevin

UBC PhD Candidate in Pharmaceutical Science
Building next gen LNP-RNA w/ biomimetic design
Beating the market w/ commercial stage biotechs

[Kevin @BiochemKev]

@604RAW imo Eby lost power when he posted a $14B deficit. Voters need to hold politicians accountable for fiscal mismanagement.

[Kevin @BiochemKev]

@RNADilettante @BioCentury @RNAiAnalyst @StephenPHansen @ArrowheadPharma Yes! Cardiomycotes and ocular.

[Kevin @BiochemKev]

@Paperboy2009 $TGTX and $XERS staying strong in a red market. Must say something about the fundamentals.

[Kevin @BiochemKev]

@semodough Alec has suppressed price long enough. Buyout imminent.

[Kevin @BiochemKev]

@RevShark At $6.7B market cap, Lundebeck is too small to pull this off. Peak estimates of $2 - 3B for Recorlev and Levo put $XERS at a $6 - 9B valuation, $33 - 49 per share. Maybe another Danish pharma will make an offer $NVO

[Kevin @BiochemKev]

@Phototogboy @mike1v My shares are definitely for sale.

[Kevin @BiochemKev]

@tweetatmehomie @TohJah7809 🙏🏼

[Kevin @BiochemKev]

@scowl731 $25 per share is a discount.
Peak sales of $1B for Recorlev and $1-2B for Levo gives $33 at $6B market cap and $49 at $9B.

[Kevin @BiochemKev]

@RobertLKruse ALNY and affiliates are allergic to extrahepatic delivery.

[Kevin @BiochemKev]

@DrSamuelBHume Saw this in $ARWR when bio funds loaded the $10-20 range early 2025 before going multi bagger. Avoro, Perceptive, Baker Bros, RA Capital, Orbimed jumped in at just the right time.

[Kevin @BiochemKev]

@Biotech2k1 I’ve questioned $MDGL valuation, but F4c MASH and in-house GLP-1 add significant growth.

Peak sales est
Ttl $8.5 - 12B
F2-F3 $5 - 7.5B
F4c $3.5 - 4.5B

Concurrent GLP1 at 25-40% of pts with 0.34 price ratio adds 10-20% to revenues, although gross margins unknown.

[Kevin @BiochemKev]

@patmonte007 @paulBIOgeek @ArrowheadPharma @Alnylam $ARWR always thinking 2 steps ahead,

$250M Royalty Pharma upfront paid for $250M manufacturing plant.

$500M 15% 6th St loan held them over till $500M upfront SRPT deal 3 months later.

At MS Chris said they had more diners in preclinical before knowing if ARO-DIMER-PA worked.

[Kevin @BiochemKev]

@paulBIOgeek @Alnylam @ArrowheadPharma @WaveLifeSci Reading John Maraganore’s Reflections on Alnylam, it seems they’ve grown into the same risk-averse big pharma that fumbled RNAi tech at the start.

ie. $MRK buying Sirna for $1.1B in 2006, unloading to $ALNY for $300M in 2014.

$ARRW still has the do or die start up mindset.

[Kevin @BiochemKev]

@avidresearch CNS is the hardest
$SAVA $ALEC $SAGE $AVXL

[Kevin @BiochemKev]

@RNAiAnalyst Bought $ARWR at the 200 ($72), had to double down when it dropped another 10%. Exciting RNAi science with multiple shots on goals: CNS, muscular $SRPT, obesity, MASH $MDGL, dyslipidemia, pulmonary, complement, dimers..

[Kevin @BiochemKev]

@TTRAmyloid $TGTX makes more cash than it burns.
$IONS burns more cash than it makes.
Peak revenues are similar.

(TGTX vs. IONS)
Revenue
$240M vs $268M

YoY Growth
+70% vs -40%

R&D Spend
$95M vs $217M

Net Profit
$8M vs. -$118M

Pipeline Peak est.
$3-6B vs. $5-7B

[Kevin @BiochemKev]

@Mykalt45 AI can design RNA for these targets but preclinical studies is still the bottle neck.

[Kevin @BiochemKev]

@alexjpitti There is nothing safe about pre commercial biotechs.