Bit

Autodidactic generalist. OSINT, cryptology, strategy, STEM, society, climate change. Endlessly curious, disabled, CPTSD, pro-NATO & -Ukraine. Haters gonna hate.

[Bit @Bit111111]

I've been writing threads on this for 6+ years, so I really hope it is not a surprise to any planners -- & yet when I ask at serious open forums (e.g. the Hayden Centre) whether there is any real strategy in place for dealing w/ it (on even a national level), it goes unanswered.

[Matthew Gross @HurricaneAddict]

I really don't think enough people fully comprehend the worlds that are about to collide here.

You already have people in geopolitical circles warning about the threat of famine based on surging prices / availability of fertilizer components, and you also have long-term weather modeling all converging on a worst case scenario for a building El Nino event, which will peak near the end of the year. These are two slow moving but entirely predictable disasters that when coupled together will each make the other orders of magnitude worse. (This will take months to fully unfold, but at this point, the die is cast.)

There's no event in our history books that combines the current global population with the impending fertilizer shortage and the strength of the El Nino that's coming. We are about to witness an unprecedented event that will push crops around the globe to their limit.

[Michael Bohnert @mbohnert]

Commercial satellites feeding real-time intel straight to Ukrainian soldiers’ phones is a game-changer. This bypasses slow bureaucracy and previews how modern wars will be fought. Ukraine is road-testing the future of Western military doctrine.

Direct mobile access to Vantor satellite imagery compresses the kill chain by up to 90%. No more waiting days for Kyiv or Washington reviews. Troops spot Russian logistics, confirm changes with AI, simulate 3D paths, and strike with mid-range drones in minutes. This is already destroying billions in Russian ammo and vehicles during operations like Starfall II.

Trans-Atlantic collaboration shines here—US Vantor sats, Dutch Bravo1Alpha, Persistent Systems, and Ukrainian Burevii units working together. It levels the playing field against Russia’s massed forces. US SOCOM and Army are already testing similar direct-access models. NATO allies should accelerate adoption to stay ahead in sensor-to-shooter speed.

This highlights the power of commercial tech in great-power competition. Governments no longer hold monopoly on battlefield intel. Risks include escalation in space domain and intel-sharing vulnerabilities, but the life-saving precision and resource efficiency for Ukraine are undeniable. Speed preserves Ukrainian lives while degrading Russian sustainment. This has been a warfighter's dream/nightmare for decades.

Expect proliferation of AI-augmented satellite tools across democratic forces. Ukraine’s success could drive investment in resilient commercial constellations and hybrid systems. However, once cannot lag implementation as potentially adversaries and non-state actors can easily acess this technology. This is a case where minutes and seconds matter.

[Small Wars Journal @smallwars]

🧵“Cognitive Warfare: A New Strategic Frontier?”

👤Dr. Jean-Michel Valantin
👤Dr. Fabrice Lollia

❓“How does cognitive warfare, amplified by artificial intelligence, social networks, and digital platforms, transform contemporary conflicts into battles of interpretation that influence public opinion, political legitimacy, and democratic balances?”

That’s the question Valantin and Loilia set out to answer in this piece.

We'll look into what this all means in this thread.

#CognitiveWarfare #InformationOperations #HybridWarfare #DigitalPropaganda #CyberSecurity #CognitiveSecurity #Disinformation #InfluenceOperations #ReflexiveControl #PsychologicalOperations #ActiveMeasures #NarrativeWarfare #InfluenceCampaign

https://t.co/vGlCSuPnN9

[Bit @Bit111111]

Fire season, here we come

[Prof. Ryan Katz-Rosene @ryankatzrosene]

Forecast for the coming Super Niño Winter in Canada: WARM for everyone!

[☈ Meteosureste @meteo_sureste]

Actualmente tenemos dos anomalías que llaman la atención a nivel mundial en la temperatura superficial del mar. Una es el incipiente evento de ElNiño , el cual se prevé que sea fuerte a muy fuerte, en el que el Pacífico tropical se calienta bastante por encima de su media. Las consecuencias son mundiales, especialmente en el continente americano y asiático. Sequías , inundaciones, cambios en el patrón habitual de lluvias.

La otra anomalía es la burbuja fría del Atlántico Norte o Cold Blob, el cuál se relaciona últimamente según estudios a una ralentización de la Amoc (corriente termohalina) lo peculiar es que lleva unas semanas ocupando una gran extensión. Cuando la amoc se ralentiza (que no colapsar) deja de llegar calor húmedo a Europa occidental, los inviernos son bastante más duros, se crea un área de altas presiones en el Atlántico Norte , sube el nivel del mar en la costa este de América del Norte, disminuyen las lluvias en el norte de Europa, entre otras consecuencias.

Hay múltiples estudios que hablan de un posible colapso de Amoc en unas decenas de años.
¿Estamos viendo el inicio?

[Bit @Bit111111]

Sigh

[Peter Zeihan @PeterZeihan]

We are well past the point where the last tankers of pre-war exports have reached their destination. So, everyone's just been burning through stocks, and at some point, in either June or early July, we're going to basically reach minimum operating inventory levels for half the world, if not more.

Prices go through the roof because there isn't enough throughput. It's not that people have cut refinery runs for the most part. It's the simple fact that we're running out of feedstock. And when that happens, you get this lovely thing called demand destruction, where prices rise to a point that some parts of the economy, some people in some parts of the world can't afford the crude-derived products at all.

When that happens, their demand is destroyed until prices fall back into line. The last time the world experienced this scale of disruption wasn't the oil crises in the 70s or 80s. It was World War II when everything got sunk. So, historically unprecedented is the term. And keep in mind that with deglobalization, some large-scale version of this would happen regardless.

#iranwar #crudeoil #geopolitics

[Bit @Bit111111]

Epidural after epidural, ablation after ablation, chugging anti-epileptics all day & trying not to think about the physical pain -- that is enough of a bar fight. It's the mental anguish that really wears me ragged; to know no matter how hard I work, society keeps me isolated.

[The International Spy Museum @IntlSpyMuseum]

Join us for "Human Intelligence: Spying in the US-Mexican War," a fascinating look at how intelligence shaped one of America's most consequential and overlooked conflicts.

📅 Wednesday, June 10, 2026
🕛 12:00 PM ET
📍 Hybrid: International Spy Museum & Online

🎟️ Register here: https://t.co/Ew1AnB1IJ6

Retired US Army historian and author Stephen A. Carney (@carneystephena) explores the traders, scouts, guides, and paid informants who helped US forces operate across vast distances and unfamiliar terrain during the US-Mexican War. He'll take a close look at Winfield Scott's campaign against Mexico City and the Dominguez Spy Company, a network of Mexican nationals who provided critical intelligence to American forces.

#USHistory #FreeProgram #SpyMuseum

[IISS News @IISS_org]

Russia’s war in Ukraine faces a growing crisis on the home front. Russia is reaching the limits of its industrial capacity and struggles to replace huge manpower losses.

To sustain its war, Moscow will have to mobilise its economy and society far more deeply and coercively. This will require command-like controls that would be greatly disruptive and unpopular. There are signs the Kremlin has begun to prepare for this. It will be a decisive moment for Russian and European security.

At the launch of his new research report, Dr Nigel Gould-Davies (@Nigelgd1), Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, presented its key findings.

🎥Recording available: https://t.co/0IfWLRXTr2

[Bit @Bit111111]

#tbt

[Ryan Evans @EvansRyan202]

Some of our friends and readers are asking why I haven't written a follow-up to my piece on this administration's failures of strategy in Iran:

https://t.co/pzWJvMysz9

The honest answer is that the fundamentals, which is what my article is about, haven't changed. I could write about it again and again, but the fallen tree is lying there in the muck for everyone to see.

The administration can show you a great pile of Iranian wreckage. It keeps a tidy ledger of everything it has broken (while a steady flow of leaks reveals how Iran is reassmenbling it). But wreckage tells you nothing about whether a strategy exists. You can destroy a great deal and accomplish nothing.

What the White House cannot tell you, still, is what it wants the region and the world to look like once the war is done (and despite legal dodges to avoid Congressional power, the war is not done) and how the war and, now, negotiations will make that happen. That is the whole of the matter.

Questions about the presidents intent for future of the regime, loose nuclear material, the Strait, and energy markets should have been answered before the campaign plan was written. The purpose of strategy is to design military action around objectives, not to vamp around a shifting and hazy array of aims after military action has begun.

The administration resembles a man who set out on a long road with great energy and no notion of where he means to arrive. As someone who toiled alongside our servicemembers with our British and Danish allies in Afghanistan, that sure feels familiar.

Success in war is measured by whether your efforts bought you a better end and a better peace.

I am still waiting, with my fellow Americans, to hear what that is.

[CIA @CIA]

On this day in 1944, the first Operation Jedburgh team parachuted into occupied France on the night before the Allied landings in Normandy.

Learn more:
https://t.co/r5tFuSvO5h

[Francesco Sassi @Frank_Stones]

This isn't just a corporate cleanup. Amidst the ongoing shipping blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, the Politburo is cementing the shift of its 15th Five-Year Plan—from a purely climate-driven agenda to a strategy of hard energy security and sovereign resilience.

[Bit @Bit111111]

So much bad training data, & probably no way to ever fully objectively verify how much existing training needs to be thrown out. Very dark to think we're now torching the planet & geostrategy to industrialize 'the blind leading the blind'.

[Bit @Bit111111]

@PaulBearta @PfParks Those towels look very hygienic...

[Bit @Bit111111]

Sigh. I'd caved & finally tried Premium to avoid the impact of this stuff, but, besides giving my replies slightly more visibility (a lot of folks don't even look at notifs from non-checkmarks), it's largely been business as usual. I already burned myself & my odds out on here.

[Francesco Sassi @Frank_Stones]

A massive political schism is opening in Europe. While Brussels pushes for total energy decoupling, Germany’s leading opposition party has just bypassed the government to hold direct talks with Gazprom on restarting the Nord Stream pipelines. 🇷🇺🇩🇪🇪🇺
🧵 👇

[Bit @Bit111111]

It's going to be a long summer.

[CBS Evening News with Tony Dokoupil @CBSEveningNews]

Severe thunderstorms are threatening parts of the country and there are rip current warnings at some beaches across the U.S. Meteorologist @RobMarciano is tracking the forecast.

[Visual Capitalist @VisualCap]

Ranked: Inflation Forecasts in G20 Economies 📊

https://t.co/r37nYK2kIQ

[Bit @Bit111111]

Low-empathy folks will dismiss it as being something that will only harm the poor or irresponsible, but these sorts of moves always have ripple effects. None of these are closed systems, & little dysfunctions synergize over time when we refuse to acknowledge their impacts.

[Parksy @PfParks]

This will crush our EDs
Those without a driver’s license, or who haven’t taken the time to renew, will all go to the EDs to seek care.

We can’t say no there… everyone gets seen whether they have coverage or not.

Prepare to wait even longer in ED WRs Albertans

[Bit @Bit111111]

Cool cool cool
It's sad how many non-Canadians are surprised when I tell them this is gov on, saying they always thought Canada didn't do stuff like this. Adversaries are succeeding at destabilizing Western nations in a 'covert' enough way that most citizens think it's organic.

[Tony Clark @Tony__Clark]

@cspotweet If Albertans fail to renew their health care card, they will lose Alberta Health Care Insurance Plan coverage. As per Bill 11.
That's kind of a big deal.
Without a card, we'll have to pay out-of-pocket and apply to be reimbursed.
#ableg
https://t.co/Webf3PlhOy