@TootieFrootie13 My view is that lenders likely push maturities further out, and with enough cash coverage they may be able to ride this out if spreads improve.
If PE spreads keep moving the right way, the situation can look very different quite quickly.
And IG4 approval in May also help.
$BAK is being read as a bad quarter.
That’s too shallow.
Balance sheet = problem.
PE pricing = catalyst.
Trigger for the year is still there.
Now ask: who controls management?
Then listen to the call again.
@calvinfroedge@Crisu1969@lwsresearch No you right. Only bad news for Bak last yr and that’s why you see the share price below what they paid in divis couple yrs back. Just sell guys this is the time to give up on it. When restructurings is the talks that’s the time to start looking at cyclicals. Please keep selling
@ani_agadah It seems he’s showing real interest, which suggests he may have a play. likely some leverage to reset feedstock terms or use local influence. Otherwise stepping in now, with a coupon coming due, wouldn’t make sense. They don’t have cash to pay coupon next month.
@ani_agadah Slim owns 25% and the Etileno XXI complex would cost $4–5 B to build. By taking control cheaply he can fix feedstock terms, leverage local influence, and capture big upside if PE spreads and tax support return, so paying a small premium over the $2 B debt can make strategic sense
@TootieFrootie13 Way too early to talk about a full restructuring. Even if the ’81 bonds trade at ~10 and creditors are talking with lawyers, I see the Lazard hire as a strategic move: mainly to push for an extension & upsizing of the 2026 revolver and to put pressure on the situation (banks).
@Marcelo12650938 This move boosts the odds of asset sales and fresh M&A talks. This is just pressure on banks to accept lower prices.
12-month target: $7.50/ADR (vs. today’s $2.64 ≈ +184% upside).
With tax relief plus divestments & deleveraging, we could see it play out even faster.
@Crisu1969 Its pretty much decided already. So if you get this and anti dumping its a completely different story going forward. I dont think you will see any M&A happening below $7-8 per share.
@TootieFrootie13@Marcelo12650938 Banks know it’s the worst time to dump Braskem. They’ll hold, let Tanure join a step-up; if he lifts value he can buy more later at a richer price. He’s already hinted he’ll fix the Alagoas mess—and help with lobbying. Might be good with some new energy here now