Bond Bee

Bond investor avoiding the sting, tricky credit fan, dad, husband, friend, employee, boss. Staring at bond docs since 2002. New Hive from 2023, check it out.

[Bond Bee @Bond_bee]

@bneeditor What a great post!

[Bond Bee @Bond_bee]

A bit more sophisticated than Trump diplomacy.

#bestpostof2026

[Alexander Kokcharov @alex_kokcharov]

During Putin's visit to Beijing, the Chinese hosts played Swan Lake for Putin - the main soundtrack of the collapse of the USSR in 1991.

During a formal reception in China for the Russian delegation, the Dance of the Little Swans from Tchaikovsky's famous ballet was performed.

[Bond Bee @Bond_bee]

@UpslopeCapital Try “In Existence” by Sawyer

[Bond Bee @Bond_bee]

@UpslopeCapital Ghost from the past

[Bond Bee @Bond_bee]

@MaMoMVPY Very cool. Well done. What is the rationale behind household consumption in the index?

[Bond Bee @Bond_bee]

Fantastic summary of the space backed by some numbers

[JohannesBorgen @jeuasommenulle]

1/🧵The big banking question these days: “is private credit a systemic risk” with some comparing it to subprime crisis.

How deep in it are banks ? Data is very hard to find but luckily the Financial Stability Board just dropped its report on private credit. 9 charts that matter

[Bond Bee @Bond_bee]

There is Wealth Management and there is Wealth Management. @FTAlphaville

[Bond Bee @Bond_bee]

@raziakkhan With a few jets in exchange :)

[Bond Bee @Bond_bee]

Using that scale is #ChartCrime

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

The latest data - out today - show gold holdings by Turkey's central bank falling a further 8 tons in the week to April 3. This brings the total drop to 128 tons since depreciation pressure on the Lira peg started mounting due to the spike in oil prices...
https://t.co/80nRTVKpmU

[Bond Bee @Bond_bee]

@AGurrea @KAYAK @bookingcom Try @amazon - they sent me an ipad box with an old ipad inside - then told me to disconnect the ipad someone else had in order to get a replacement…. Never got my money back. Never again will I order a high value item from them again.

[Bond Bee @Bond_bee]

@darioperkins Probably referring to talks via Putin…

[Bond Bee @Bond_bee]

@TommyThornton He must be referring to talks via Putin…

[Bond Bee @Bond_bee]

@INArteCarloDoss Its because they have subsidised pricing and plenty of fuel tourists….

[Bond Bee @Bond_bee]

@INArteCarloDoss Soo true

[Bond Bee @Bond_bee]

Everyone on the Nobel Peace Prize must be feeling pretty bad. Just imagine, thats all it took… for a lot of people to have a very different future.

[Izabella Kaminska @izakaminska]

Thanks.

It just feels awfully coincidental that on one side of the world you have overproduction forced upon western markets at below cost prices and ultimately funded by financial repression. And on the other side of the world you have a private credit binge keeping people employed in equally inefficient companies, many of them also going after scale at any price and funded by historic liquidity, now consciously being removed.

The whole SV emerging tech unicorn phenomenon is to me the mirror of Chinese industrial policy. Most of the corps coming out of that space “win” by giving away their product for free or at below cost prices until they capture enough market share to kill off all their competitors. But the model is perpetual meaning there are alway new loss makers entering the market hoping to undercut the dominant ones.

So just like in China you get this insane competition until only one dominant player can survive, and in emerging they eat up all the other players at pennies on the dollar in a way that allows them to extend and pretend via consolidation.

But it’s also a quota based rather than price based system. Even in the west the market has over the past decade been conditioned to rewarding companies for growth at any cost rather than for profit, sustaining unprofitable companies for years and years providing they just keep growing.

And they’re only able to keep growing because of the deep pocketed support of private equity corps or VCs, most of whom are funded by real money pension funds, and rewarded in paper returns expressed through rising stock prices rather than dividends.

That is the only difference. Except now that pension funds are being drawn on because of demographic forces that is going to become much harder to sustain. These investors need cashflows not unrealised stock market gains.

As it stands, it’s just a deferred form of financial repression. The illusion that it’s not was maintained by Fed liquidity. People will eventually realise their investments are worthless (or rather only worth anything for as long as they don’t draw on them), but only when they try to draw on them.

And where does the quota based effect come in in the west? I think via the compensation channel.

Remember private credit mostly became a thing to support the businesses that were over invested in by private equity just to keep their opaque valuations up, an to maintain the pay checks of all the people who became dependent on the original capital misallocation. To me it is akin to the circularity of the Chinese financial institution model, wherein banks buy the debt of local municipalities which then support projects that keep the failing firms going. Except where Chinese banks are funded by depositors at repressed rates, private credit is funded by pooled long term investment capital, at fantasy return promises.

But the key point is that managers at private credit firms earn large rewards through carried interest, bonuses, and equity tied to the size and performance of their funds, which creates incentives to raise larger pools of capital and lend it quickly on the promise that these companies will grow at any cost. Compensation becomes tied to growth.

And as competition increases, this leads to higher leverage and weaker loan protections for borrowers.

That is involution. Eventually every unit of new credit extend simply feeds a loss making business model that only makes it more expensive to fund the next unit of growth.

[Bond Bee @Bond_bee]

@junkbondinvest @verdadcap The word maturity wall should be muted for anyone in credit. Been there each year.

[Bond Bee @Bond_bee]

@INArteCarloDoss Spending a day to lock in my power prices for next two years may just about turn out profitable…

[Bond Bee @Bond_bee]

@vctrjmnz Might be helpful to discuss his source of cashflows….lets just say, I dont see that defence if it wasnt the majority of his clients and he is about to ipo.

[Bond Bee @Bond_bee]

Is it me, or are we about to get a wave with mini “black swans” due to ai integration in various software processes? Amazon is the big story…. But its the random small stuff that I fear…the moments that were historically remembered as some junior getting screamed at. #aiswan