@ragingbullcap@siyul@KarstResearch The fact that I took it here does not mean it was not an +EV trade. This is an odd games and there are certain times where you will take a loss! It’s all about R/R and expected probability..
@siyul@ragingbullcap@KarstResearch How many pages of the actual docket of those cases have you read to have an informed legal opinion? Just following legal consensus of these names do not meet my criteria of an informed investment decision..
@RafaRedPilled@GutierrezCap_ Gutiérrez pasa los 5 dockets de los 5 casos con su correspondiente judgment. Pasa el número de caso de cada uno y que tipo de acción era y si era estatal o federal. Aquí estamos esperando.
@WallStWary@terribadrob 1 UMN exposition still unquantified(they are they owners of the patents!) 2 Hood Park has a valid contract till 2031 so they can recoup up to 1 year(future) that’s several millions too
@jy201506@kainvests What percentage of enrolled patients had not yet exhausted all approved treatment options? Your perspective is very interesting, but it seems that this subgroup is relatively small in the dataset, and RP1 still appeared to perform better
@siyul There is a % of the Opex tied to that the long-term incentive compensation including accruals but actual return for shareholders from the book is far different from your math. Most of Opex is salaries, G&A and annual incentive compensation that is not tied to changes in FV.
@siyul You are comparing future opex obligations against portfolio that does not need opex(already had it opex costs when originating it). That future opex will be used to find new cases and should be measured against the capital available and the IRR of that capital.
@siyul WAL is 3.3 years so assuming 8 years re debt interest is unfair. OPEX is high I won’t say otherwise but it has been already spent in paying staff for analyzing current portfolio of cases. Future opex should be measured against future cash receipts to evaluate profitability.
The YPF decision is extremely concerning. It creates a regretable precedent: even where US courts have jurisdiction, contractual disputes against sovereign states can be displaced by framing them as “expropriation” $BUR
@AnotherBio 1) NOLs are huge and they will be keep in AnaptysBio 2) Jemperli royalties at 10% IRR given that the last patent expire 2035 is way higher than that figure just using GSK consensus 3) Label expansion is huge due to entering in the highest royalty bracket
@NestBetter You need to value BV of Burford with their historical IRRs and discount with the current pf WAL, then add the capacity for future originations at, again the carry they make. Using accounting metrics or TBV is useless here. YPF case should be down hugely but no 0.
@ACapitalLP@lawyIRR@gruust $OMEX has nothing to do with a possible commercial arbitration claim against Argentina re YPF breach of contract. Omex had a quantum problem, the sunk costs were nill and the damages seek were delusional.